COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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karen7 said:
it wont be done in less than a year for safety reasons,herd immunity works for the healthy who wont be much bothered by it but will spread it

look the government will have been presented with options, to think they wouldnt take the acceptable losses one for the greater good dice throw is naive
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Just a difference of opinion, I'll leave it there, I think.
 
Ban-jani said:
Exactly what I mean. The UK government is predicting that if we lockdown too early then people would begin to ignore the quarantine after a period time and then it’d be ineffective at the time that it’s needed most.

That’s why they’re waiting.
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And when's that time?
 
Uffa said:
:)

That worries me. Hopefully having implemented stricter measures nationwide before it grew too out of hand in the South will prevent it from taking a heavy toll on them.
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You would think so, as they will be starting from a less infectious base figure.
 
Out of interest, I keep seeing people talk about how people should self-isolate for a week/fortnight if they get sick, but then what? Do you just wander back into society if you start to feel better after a week or if are sick in that period are you supposed to stay locked away? These time frames seem pretty arbitrary, surely it should be linked to how long after you start feeling better?
 
SebastianBlue said:
As I said to @TheRemainsOfTheDave, I understand the general reasoning behind your post, but there are very real consequences to building heard immunity in this fashion (it is usually a concept applied to the gradual, natural acquisition of immunity to an endemic pathogen by a large population, usually over many years). Those consequences are especially relevant in the context of a potentially overwhelmed healthcare system, which could happen well before the “peak” you have previously described, as people act on their own (as external restrictions are not being placed on them) and seek treatment whether or not they have the virus. This is still a *very* risky strategy. And it is not one being adopted by most other nations, nor one being recommended by most reputable health organisations.

One of the reasons they said that loved ones will die is because this strategy all but assures that many of the old and infirm will contract the virus and many of those will die specifically because of complications arising from infection (aka COVID-19).

And I say that as a fairly young person that is unfortunately still in the ‘high risk’ population. There are more of us than many seem to believe and not all are able to as effectively sequester themselves as I am thankfully able. Even then, I do have to make regular visit to hospital, which will increase my chance of infection based on this strategy, if also adopted by the US where I live (which in many ways it has been).
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The NHS cannot cope and wouldn’t have done for the last few decades to be frank and therefore we need to go down this route.

I genuinely think the likes of China will have several spikes again, they cannot keep people locked up forever and we do not have a vaccine as it stands.
 
karen7 said:
makes some kind of sense to look at it like that but just accepting vulnerable people dying before clamping down to protect the rest just cannot be acceptable,all those vulnerable people are putting the nhs under huge strain and will continue to do so until they all die,what is acceptable,a million,two million? Stop those who can get it from getting it and passing it on now,stop mass gatherings,i can see no reason not to,it wont make it any worse but might just make it better
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I’m not making a judgement on the morality of the Govts position just trying to make sense of it; but If a Govt is actively warning its citizens in advance there will be casualties it is the beginning of preparing the population to accept numbers they would normally reject.
 
Ban-jani said:
Exactly what I mean. The UK government is predicting that if we lockdown too early then people would begin to ignore the quarantine after a period time and then it’d be ineffective at the time that it’s needed most.

That’s why they’re waiting.
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IMO, this is going to be a disastrous decision.
 
karen7 said:
i just don't agree with it,i know it is difficult to make these decisions,there are many things to consider,if they introduce any measures today it would take days/weeks/never to take full effect,stop people going to matches,large groups of people travelling when they dont have to,that would negate a large risk factor TODAY
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And that's an opinion based on your decades of epidemiological research obviously.
 
Ban-jani said:
The NHS cannot cope and wouldn’t have done for the last few decades to be frank and therefore we need to go down this route.

I genuinely think the likes of China will have several spikes again, they cannot keep people locked up forever and we do not have a vaccine as it stands.
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One of my points is that this route may hasten the NHS strain — it could increase peak amplitude of the case/time curve, not reduce it. In fact, the WHO and CDC appear to think it will increase it.

It’s a gamble that could go very well or very poorly; it’s not a ‘sure’ strategy.
 
Ban-jani said:
Exactly what I mean. The UK government is predicting that if we lockdown too early then people would begin to ignore the quarantine after a period time and then it’d be ineffective at the time that it’s needed most.

That’s why they’re waiting.
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That’s a huge cop-out from them though. What they have basically announced to the public is that they don’t trust us to follow instructions. They have revealed that they don’t feel they are capable of mobilising us, of inspiring us to work together, of convincing us of the need to cooperate. They are saying that they are not good enough to do that. That is not the action of a strong leadership team. How can they expect people to follow them when they say such a thing? We’ll get bored? It’s an awful thing to use as your sole reason for doing next to nothing. It’s waving a white flag. They say we’re a country that’s faced bigger challenges before and come through it, then in the same breath don’t trust us to come through it in the most optimal way.
 
BigOscar said:
Out of interest, I keep seeing people talk about how people should self-isolate for a week/fortnight if they get sick, but then what? Do you just wander back into society if you start to feel better after a week or if are sick in that period are you supposed to stay locked away? These time frames seem pretty arbitrary, surely it should be linked to how long after you start feeling better?
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Uffa said:
Really impressed by how much your government seems to trust all its citizens to follow their advice and act for the collective interest. Here we have to make it law and actually close things, otherwise people simply ignore it.
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They clearly think very highly of you, knowing how to act responsibly and judging your own infectiousness.
 
simon23 said:
Rep of Ireland closed all its schools this afternoon....just attended meeting at my school....no closure yet but strong feeling it will happen soon and school staff are preparing for it by organising how to get work to kids at home and also mark/assess it all online...etc
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Same for us. Urgent email sent this afternoon cancelling all after school meetings and directed to plan upload enough work to last til Easter.
 
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