COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[Manc Born & Bred]

Daily briefings are now be given by No 10.
In the first one today the Government needs to explain the justification for it's 'controlled herd immunity' programme, why it is better than the lockdown measures adopted in other countries and the risks.
Not hopeful but let's see.

Just heard a top professor on TV (he is Director of the National Institute for Health Research Health Protection) saying that the virus will come back in the winter. If we all catch it now and for most it will be mild or not noticeable at all (look what Arteta's wife said) then immunity builds up. If however we isolate everyone and it comes back then we will have a similar state of panic to what we now have. He admitted it's a delicate balancing act as to what is the right thing to do but it's important that the vulnerable who it will hit the hardest are looked after.

 

[SB Blue]

A doctor friend told my daughter on Sat that she thought there was already 10s of thousands infected in the UK.

Based on the comments from footballers who have tested positive, ranging from it feeling like a cold or in some cases being asymptotic, it’s not hard to believe this. Didn’t the figures in China shoot up when they started testing everyone in hospital and not just those showing symptoms?

 

[kevin horlocks wand]

Flawed thinking.

We are also accepting that our measures will have to continue for a long long time. How can 40m get infected over anything other than 1year+ without overwhelming the NHS?. Do the maths

So both nations will have to continue with their measures only we will have many more dead than they will. So which policies are the correct ones?

The Asian nations are much more in tune with what needs to be done because of their previous experiences with SARS and other viruses. Monitoring and testing, testing, testing, testing.

But we in the UK - with no experience - apparently know best. No point in widespread testing apparently.

on testing, there is no point as we have already said those with mild conditions should self isolate. So that’s whether they have it or not. So if they follow the advice that should help the spread.

the Asian countries have seemingly controlled the spread if you look at the numbers but that’s by locking everything down. You have no idea whether that is effective or not until they try and return to normal. When they come out of isolation the virus is still going to be around and guess what the danger is you end up with it increasing again as people try to return to normal.

the strategy here , which I agree with, is as there is no vaccine it will spread so the plan will be to make sure that spread does not peak at anyone time and we spread the strain on the health services as best we can to avoid a spike ( they will still be overwhelmed) but that is the plan. At the same time planning to protect the vulnerable.

that’s why it’s going to be a drip feed of measures , wash hands , stay in if have symptoms, protect vulnerable , at some point ban large gatherings , eventually close schools and then lockdown.

however all of that is managed to protect the vulnerable and the nhs.

you can’t just lock the whole country down for a year, it won’t work. Even if you do the virus will still be here when we get out.

 

[George Hannah]

Are you agreeing with me or disagreeing? The experts you seem to trust implicitly (specifically Patrick Vallance) said on Thursday, "much more likely we've got somewhere between 5,000 and 10,000 people infected."

With doubling every 3 days, that would mean 10,000 to 20,000 as of now.

What's your problem with believing this country's top medical and scientific experts? What is it you think they are lying about?

 

[Tim of the Oak]

Maybe years and years of bullshit coming from the top has led to people bring distrustful of the government.
That’s what happens you see when the evidence piles up that the country has been misled over and over again over many different issues. Some small, some big, but all when added together mean that when the serious shit hits the fan, when the people genuinely need somebody to look up to to help them through the worst of times they feel they can’t believe the advice being given.
You keep banging on about us having the best this and best that in terms of scientists won’t change things for those people terrified of what the future holds.
Looking from afar one can only hope that the U.K. have taken the correct measures and the rest of the world are wrong. You’ll have to forgive me though for being a little worried that this isn’t the case and those who are meant to protect their citizens have fucked up - again.

we can only pursue an optimal strategy for our circumstances. For example, hospital beds have been reduced by successive Governments for decades and the Government aware of this in the efforts to slow the spread of the virus.

Also, lots of us are keen to slate the Government but they aren’t the fookers who are filling their sheds with bog roll and hand sanitisers. There’s a lot of people whose behaviour is questionable.

 

[MillionMilesAway]

Just heard a top professor on TV (he is Director of the National Institute for Health Research Health Protection) saying that the virus will come back in the winter. If we all catch it now and for most it will be mild or not noticeable at all (look what Arteta's wife said) then immunity builds up. If however we isolate everyone and it comes back then we will have a similar state of panic to what we now have. He admitted it's a delicate balancing act as to what is the right thing to do but it's important that the vulnerable who it will hit the hardest are looked after.

The majority are going to be exposed at some point, it's a matter of controlling that to avoid very high peak strain on treatment capacity.

Many models suggest there will be the second peak in winter, and it's certainly going to come back in the future. Somehow the vulnerable group need to be exposed in such a manner that that the numbers from that group needing hospital treatment, both imminently and in the longer term, is smaller - i.e. not overwhelming treatment capacity.

I can see the logic of what he says - if you try to prevent any vulnerable group from being exposed until, say, July, then the numbers with infections later on is going to be higher.

 

[Fordyboy46]

This just says it all. People don’t even respect the requests to self isolate, they think it’s not essential. It’s just so typically British.

Exactly, so many employers not at all sympathetic towards this self isolation, and you can guarantee when the isolators do return back to work a lot will get warnings.

 

[shevtheblue]

What's your problem with believing this country's top medical and scientific experts? What is it you think they are lying about?

229 scientists have written a letter to the govt advising against the strategy we are following. The scientists in Italy, who are going through this and have now got experience we won't have, are all advising against it. We are tackling this virus completely different to nearly every other country, so you can maybe see where people are worried.

 

[George Hannah]

Maybe years and years of bullshit coming from the top has led to people bring distrustful of the government.
That’s what happens you see when the evidence piles up that the country has been misled over and over again over many different issues. Some small, some big, but all when added together mean that when the serious shit hits the fan, when the people genuinely need somebody to look up to to help them through the worst of times they feel they can’t believe the advice being given.
You keep banging on about us having the best this and best that in terms of scientists won’t change things for those people terrified of what the future holds.
Looking from afar one can only hope that the U.K. have taken the correct measures and the rest of the world are wrong. You’ll have to forgive me though for being a little worried that this isn’t the case and those who are meant to protect their citizens have fucked up - again.

I don't know where you are but the 'UK v rest of the world' mantra is simply stupid. What is right for one country might not be for another, many things are a question of timing and the UK has ruled nothing out (if circumstances require it) as far as I am aware.

 

[shevtheblue]

I just want to reiterate that the Chinese are dirty fucking bastards for eating anything, half the time without cooking it.

I have just seen a video this morning which is supposedly from a market in Wuhan, it's seriously distressing, and i don't even really like animals.

 

[kevin horlocks wand]

229 scientists have written a letter to the govt advising against the strategy we are following. The scientists in Italy, who are going through this and have now got experience we won't have, are all advising against it. We are tackling this virus completely different to nearly every other country, so you can maybe see where people are worried.

they are not half of them Are students , maths researchers and one is even an employment lawyer,

yeah Italy have it under control Don’t they. Their first positive test was 1 day before ours.

 

[Marvin]

Once all this curtails. Global leaders really need to come together and address so many issues, to seem capitalism totally collapse over a virus in a week shows how unsustainable it all is.

Global leaders aren't going to revolt. There could well be major social effects though.

I think our politicians this week did a really good job at scaring us. They now have everyone on a war footing. Please press that red button. Madness to delay. The delay = equals virus growth and makes it more difficult for us all if we take it into our homes.

I believe it's still out there in very small numbers but we need to move fast.. Do so, and within a fortnight growth will start to level off, and then fall, and we'll feel good.

On a technical level, how will we track it when we are not testing so much? New cases actually went down yesterday in the UK but that was partly because we changed the way we do the tests.

Seat counters required. The death count is not really suitable because it is a lagging indicator. perhaps we will have to rely on foreign countries data. I am watching Italy. They are where we will be be soon. But really we should implement emrgency action from a much lower virus base so should do better....providing we move fast.

 

[Indaparkside]

As you may or may not be aware Manchester/wythenshawe/ and Trafford come under one trust now.
The wife’s just rang all elective surgery at Trafford general has been
Suspended as of today so if you know anyone who is waiting for knee/ hip replacements which the hospital specialises in its all been cancelled.
Just a heads up did post it earlier but can’t find it anywhere

 

[Tricky_Trev]

I have about 10 days supply of nappies for my little lad and can’t find any anywhere so far today. Onto my 5th shop soon. Things are going to get messy...

 

[George Hannah]

229 scientists have written a letter to the govt advising against the strategy we are following. The scientists in Italy, who are going through this and have now got experience we won't have, are all advising against it. We are tackling this virus completely different to nearly every other country, so you can maybe see where people are worried..

Have you even looked at who is on that list? All so called 'scientists' are not created equal - in fact many of those who signed up to that political stunt aren't even out of school.

 

[Chippy_boy]

on testing, there is no point as we have already said those with mild conditions should self isolate. So that’s whether they have it or not. So if they follow the advice that should help the spread.

the Asian countries have seemingly controlled the spread if you look at the numbers but that’s by locking everything down. You have no idea whether that is effective or not until they try and return to normal. When they come out of isolation the virus is still going to be around and guess what the danger is you end up with it increasing again as people try to return to normal.

the strategy here , which I agree with, is as there is no vaccine it will spread so the plan will be to make sure that spread does not peak at anyone time and we spread the strain on the health services as best we can to avoid a spike ( they will still be overwhelmed) but that is the plan. At the same time planning to protect the vulnerable.

that’s why it’s going to be a drip feed of measures , wash hands , stay in if have symptoms, protect vulnerable , at some point ban large gatherings , eventually close schools and then lockdown.

however all of that is managed to protect the vulnerable and the nhs.

you can’t just lock the whole country down for a year, it won’t work. Even if you do the virus will still be here when we get out.

This must be my last post for a while - I have work to get done. However, you've been reading too much and not thinking enough, IMO, mate.

1. Who knows whether the virus will start up again in China? 95% of shipments from China have now resumed, I've just heard on the TV. They've been shipping a load of their used ventilators over to Italy, such is their confidence they won't need them in such numbers again. Our strategy condemns thousands of people to death, whereas the Chinese strategy offers hope that that need not be the case. Perhaps it might not work and and perhaps it would, but surely when dealing with peoples' lives, we don't just give up and accept a terrible outcome which is not even certain.

2. All this BS about flattening the curve. Sure we want to flatten it, I get that. But it is PR spin to imagine we can flatten it to anything like NHS capacity if we allow most people to become infected. It's simple maths mate. You cannot divide 40m infected by any number of months, any way you like and not overwhelm the NHS. We'd perhaps have to spread it out over 10 years to not do so. Carry on as we are, and the NHS WILL be swamped, and when that happens, people who need ICU who cannot get it, die. They are saveable but die needlessly due to our inability to treat them. Starting this week, I would imagine, on the present path.

Furthermore, where are the actions now, which are commensurate with trying to minimise the size of any peak? We are being told that cancelling sporting events would have little impact. Well (a) what utter crap, and (b) any impact would be helpful. It is a travesty that all actions are not being taken to limit the extent to which the NHS cannot cope. The government is talking about "at some point" closing schools, banning mass gatherings of more than 500.Get on with for christ's sake. And make it gatherings of 50 whilst you're at it. Where is the direction saying "Everyone who can work from home, should"? That would help greatly, but no such statement is forthcoming? Why????

 

[Indaparkside]

I have about 10 days supply of nappies for my little lad and can’t find any anywhere so far today. Onto my 5th shop soon. Things are going to get messy...

My granddaughter needs some going to bulk buy later with baby wipes

 

[shevtheblue]

they are not half of them Are students , maths researchers and one is even an employment lawyer,

yeah Italy have it under control Don’t they. Their first positive test was 1 day before ours.

They're from a number of different fields, but how about W.H.O's recommendations from people who have experience of epidemics?
The Italians aren't saying 'haha you're doing it wrong, we're doing it right'. They're saying 'learn from how we reacted too slow'.

 

[kevin horlocks wand]

This must be my last post for a while - I have work to get done. However, you've been reading too much and not thinking enough, IMO, mate.

1. Who knows whether the virus will start up again in China? 95% of shipments from China have now resumed, I've just heard on the TV. They've been shipping a load of their used ventilators over to Italy, such is their confidence they won't need them in such numbers again. Our strategy condemns thousands of people to death, whereas the Chinese strategy offers hope that that need not be the case. Perhaps it might not work and and perhaps it would, but surely when dealing with peoples' lives, we don't just give up and accept a terrible outcome which is not even certain.

2. All this BS about flattening the curve. Sure we want to flatten it, I get that. But it is PR spin to imagine we can flatten it to anything like NHS capacity if we allow most people to become infected. It's simple maths mate. You cannot divide 40m infected by any number of months, any way you like and not overwhelm the NHS. We'd perhaps have to spread it out over 10 years to not do so. Carry on as we are, and the NHS WILL be swamped, and when that happens, people who need ICU who cannot get it, die. They are saveable but die needlessly due to our inability to treat them.

Furthermore, where are the actions now, which are commensurate with trying to minimise the size of any peak? We are being told that cancelling sporting events would have little impact. Well (a) what utter crap, and (b) any impact would be helpful. It is a travesty that all actions are not being taken to limit the extent to which the NHS cannot cope. The government is talking about "at some point" closing schools, banning mass gatherings of more than 500.Get on with for christ's sake. And make it gatherings of 50 whilst you're at it. Where is the direction saying "Everyone who can work from home, should"? That would help greatly, but no such statement is forthcoming? Why????

to your last point I am sure direction will be given on all that this week.

 

[Gaz in Zurich]

I have about 10 days supply of nappies for my little lad and can’t find any anywhere so far today. Onto my 5th shop soon. Things are going to get messy...

Try amazon Prime