COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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BobKowalski said:
....The criticism would be why was not actual data on the virus used in the first place? If we didn’t have access then why were countries and organisations privy to the actual data not heeded more? There could be good reasons for not doing so but that is a debate for later.
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Could it be the data that was used was the only data that was available at the time and your concept of another set of 'actual data' is a complete fiction? The self-fulfilling prophecy business on here is thriving.
 
Chippy_boy said:
I said a week or so ago that I expected 100,000 (UK) deaths from this and was ridiculed by some. If we can keep it down to 48,000, that would be "marvellous" and I hope to God we can. I think we perhaps we can.

What is far from clear is just how the country will cope from the effect of all of the changes. We are a looking at 18 months now of changes to peoples ways of life not seen since WW2. This is going to have enormous knock on effects for all of us. I cannot even begin to imagine.
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I’m fully expecting to be out of work by the end of it. I’m fortunate that I’d be able to cope for a year or two in that event (by which time I’d hope for everything to settle down and work for me again) but there may be tens of thousand less fortunate.
 
Sorry squirty
It's more than one person per household so either me or the Mrs can go and that's it we are going to take it in turns so we can get out of the house.
Fukin scary
squirtyflower said:
Me and the Mrs always go together. She knows what we want, I always buy the wrong things, but she struggles with the full trolley so I do that.
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SWP's back said:
1,100 and 4,900 includes school closures doesn’t it and it says that it remains in place (for two years?).

And still suggests up to 48,000 deaths (which, I grant, is considerably better than 250,000).
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School closures are going to come in, they've said that, it's all about timing the triggers, which is what the 60/100/200/300/400 is for.

I don't see any reason why they would wait for 400, so it won't be 48000, also they don't think the R rate is that high, they think it's 2.4.

So we're talking about 8700-24000 depending on the trigger point for school closures.
 
Chippy_boy said:
I hear where your coming from mate but I think it's a bit different in fact.

The numbers of people who die is very strongly determined by the extent to which the NHS' ICU capacity is overloaded. Nearly everyone who needs ventilator support and who cannot get it, will die. What they have realised (and was obvious to many of us) is that had they carried on with Option 2, the NHS would be completely overwhelmed and the numbers of people dying would be off the scale. They talked about 250,000 *if* we had enough capacity, which of course we do not. So the numbers would be much higher than 250,000 - something in the region of half a million - with 14,500 people dying per day at the peak.

So Option1 becomes the only option. We have no choice. There are no circumstances where more people will die under Option1. This idea that Option2 might be better in the long run, has been shown to be wrong. It's SO bad in the short term, it cannot possibly be better.

And regards Option1, we may well have several "waves". After each wave is under control, we can ease off on measures and then if the numbers start to pick up again, we need to lock down again. We are going to have to get used to this for the next 18 months, because there is no alternative which does not leave half a million people dead.
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I’m coming around to option one more and more, the more info I see on the ICU beds.

My post was very oversimplified also.

I’m genuinely really worried about this.
 
SWP's back said:
I’m fully expecting to be out of work by the end of it. I’m fortunate that I’d be able to cope for a year or two in that event (by which time I’d hope for everything to settle down and work for me again) but there may be tens of thousand less fortunate.
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I am sorry to hear that mate - although glad to hear you will cope, obviously.

But I've no idea how the many millions without adequate financial reserves will cope.

I am all for budget responsibility but in times of war, people expect and accept that public borrowing has to go through the roof. KPI's and targets need to be reset and to be commensurate with the times. This is the situation now I think. There is no long term gain from allowing otherwise sound businesses to fold, in fact the opposite is true. We can come out of this nightmare much quicker if this is - to the greatest extent possible - an 18 month "blip", where life carries on pretty much as normal in 18 months time. That cannot happen if half the businesses have gone under and unemployment is 10x what it is now.

So I would urge our government to take a more Macron-like approach. It will be bad enough for people having to stay indoors for a year, but doing so whilst worrying yourself sick over money, can only make things much worse. We need to pump vast amounts of funding in, to keep businesses afloat so that they can continue to pay their staff. It will costs tens of billions, perhaps 100 bn. But needs to be done.
 
domalino said:
School closures are going to come in, they've said that, it's all about timing the triggers, which is what the 60/100/200/300/400 is for.

I don't see any reason why they would wait for 400, so it won't be 48000, also they don't think the R rate is that high, they think it's 2.4.

So we're talking about 8700-24000 depending on the trigger point for school closures.
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That would miraculous so I hope it’s the case.

Am I reading it wrong that these measures “remaining in place” means living in this surreal situation for two years (or until a viable vaccine comes into play)?
 
bluemoon32 said:
No difference today in work, no one allowed to work from home unless a family member in the same house has an illness that puts them at risk.
No wipes, no hand gels, no fcuking soap in the toilets ffs.
Luckily i've got my own
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That's awful. Where do you work?
 
All retired nurses, doctors are been asked to step up here in Ireland. This will be paid employment. We have only 270 ICU beds although We can probably multiply that as 50% of the world's ventilators are manufactured here. We're as close to lockdown as we can be, logistically the resources aren't there to copy Italy,France etc. I live 1/2 mile from the border where currently there are no restrictions (although I'm expecting that to change soon) .I can tell you that if you are unwell and ring the HSE helpline they basically assess you over the phone taking your age, medical history into consideration. Unless you are in respiratory distress you won't be tested so the figures are somewhat skewed. Going to be a year that will never be forgotten I fear.
 
domalino said:
School closures are going to come in, they've said that, it's all about timing the triggers, which is what the 60/100/200/300/400 is for.

I don't see any reason why they would wait for 400, so it won't be 48000, also they don't think the R rate is that high, they think it's 2.4.

So we're talking about 8700-24000 depending on the trigger point for school closures.
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Given that circa 8,000 die from flu anyway on a good year, I think you can forget all about your lower estimate mate. The upper estimate would be a welcomed miracle.
 
B\connellblue said:
All retired nurses, doctors are been asked to step up here in Ireland.
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Surprised FCA medics etc aren't being involved. Still happy to see the government being decisive about it. Would be nice to see a debt moratorium given the level of national debt and the rental crisis.
 
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