COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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My boss returned from a week's holiday in Dubai last night. He felt he had no choice but to go as it had cost him something like £10,000 to take the whole family and as it hadn't been cancelled on him by the airline, etc, he would've lost the lot if he didn't travel. Anyway, in his infinite wisdom he decided to visit the Souk while he was out there. He'd never been before and wanted to go but why the stupid fucker would venture there at a time like this is beyond me. Myself and his business partner were shaking our heads last week when we heard he'd done that. I think he was trying to justify it by saying not many people in the UAE have got it yet. Anyway, when I was speaking on the phone to him last week I said I wasn't looking forward to coming into work on the bus this morning (due to my normal lift being off today), so he said "Don't worry - I'll be back then so book the day off if you want". I decided against it as I had a few important work things to deal with this morning and it's a good job because a short while I ago I received a WhatsApp off him: "Morning pal - it looks like this virus has got me. I'll give you a ring shortly"
 
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Marvin said:
I feel that once past the peak, the infection may collapse because active cases will shrink and the no. of new cases is a function of the active cases. That's why epidemics have that 'normal' peak shape which we are now familiar.

On top of that countries are improving their response. The most significant measure may be a 45 minute test which will allow the world for the first time to readily find the virus and therefore isolate it. Antibody tests are also in the pipeline. These are game-changers. But how long till they get properly rolled out?

For the vulnerable they are going to be 'shielded' for a while but for the mass of the population I think maybe things will normalise over weeks after the peak. It's very difficult to say. An unknown is the global effect. Is the virus going to be raging around us in nations like Turkey, Russia, India, South America? That affects travel etc

Depends how quick the science moves. Anti-viral trials and vaccine trials will have increasing effects but are probably a little too far away to have a significant impact now.
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do you mean the standard curve of deviation, or bell curve?
If so, and the govt are right with their 10-14 week prediction to peak we are 20-28 weeks away from getting back to today’s conditions.
 
New Zealand and Ira in total lockdown. Stark differences in approach. The UK is at the 'relaxed' end of the spectrum.

Very pleased to see that Spain is distributing 650,000 fast testing kits. The report I read didn't say how fast but I've heard that some countries and companies are working on 10 minute tests. The USA are about to roll out a 45 minute test.
 
Blue Hefner said:
Seen as though it hasn’t really started yet, Johnson’s ambition to getting to the other side in 12 weeks and that they will be reviewing things ‘month by month’ then I’d say we are in for the long haul, at least 3 months from today
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Numbers from Italy, Spain and ourselves yesterday showed promising signs it could be sooner - too early to say though I suppose.
 
Marvin said:
New Zealand and Ira in total lockdown. Stark differences in approach. The UK is at the 'relaxed' end of the spectrum.

Very pleased to see that Spain is distributing 650,000 fast testing kits. The report I read didn't say how fast but I've heard that some countries and companies are working on 10 minute tests. The USA are about to roll out a 45 minute test.
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They've been using them at the entrances to hospitals in Jerez and Cordoba for a couple of days already.
People who have driven to the hospital feeling ill are tested in their car. If they are negative, told to go home. If positive, they are also told to go home but contacts will be traced and tested.
 
denislawsbackheel said:
do you mean the standard curve of deviation, or bell curve?
If so, and the govt are right with their 10-14 week prediction to peak we are 20-28 weeks away from getting back to today’s conditions.
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Unfortunately along with exponential rise, we have exponential decay. And the higher the peak, the longer the decay time. Which is why it's so bloody infuriating we didn't clamp down hard, sooner. Not only would we have had a peak perhaps 10x lower, we would have had the peak much sooner and the end of this omni-shambles much, much sooner. Every day which passes with us not taking every possible action, lengthens the period of severe disruption by many days. China clamped down on Jan 28th and less than 8 weeks later are back to business as usual across China and imminently in Hubei province. A mere 8 weeks from clamp down to some kind of normality being resumed.
 
robbieh said:
It was in ABC so probably a load of Vox types.

As you say nobody I've heard is complaining but then again it's pretty difficult to hear what they are saying as we are all in isolation.

On a broader point I think young Spanish people have much closer ties to their grandparents, which then extends to the elderly in general. Which might be why healthy young people are prepared to stay in indoors.
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Yesterday was the main day Spanish families visit their grandparents / parents etc.. My neighbour usually has 4 or 5 carloads during the day but no traffic at all yesterday other than her carer (she is old and disabled).
Yes we all appear to be accepting lockdown as a tactic that we trust our politicians have got right.
Certainly our SE Spain area continues to have very little virus so we at least protect ourselves from its global spread.
 
Tricky_Trev said:
We surely have the largest percentage of ignorant twats in Europe, which is why we’ll be the worst affected.
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100% this. Always had the theory that we may not be the most aggressive country in Europe, probably not the most racist either, but we're EASILY the most twatty, which is why everyone hates the UK. Not all of us of course, but the vast majority are arrogant little fucks who think they're above everyone else.
 
BlueHammer85 said:
Numbers from Italy, Spain and ourselves yesterday showed promising signs it could be sooner - too early to say though I suppose.
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Ourselves? Our new cases are still on an upward curve but they can't be relied upon because of accelerated testing.

Governments will know the picture. I am amazed that the assembled journalists in the press conferences never ask the experts for their opinion. They have samples. We rely on headline figures that a function of testing rates that go up. For example if you look at USA and Germany, there infections are surging but does that reflect the real multiplication of the virus or is it just because when you test 200,000 people in a day you find more cases?

Italy and Spain's published new cases are probably reliable and equal measures over recent days because their health sector is pushed to the limit, and thus I think we can rely on their data. We can't rely on it in other countries because they are doing different things each day. When you take No. of new cases today/no. of cases yesterday you rely on the data bein calculated in the same way. If they change collection techniques then the test is not so good.
 
Marvin said:
Ourselves? Our new cases are still on an upward curve but they can't be relied upon because of accelerated testing.

Governments will know the picture. I am amazed that the assembled journalists in the press conferences never ask the experts for their opinion. They have samples. We rely on headline figures that a function of testing rates that go up. For example if you look at USA and Germany, there infections are surging but does that reflect the real multiplication of the virus or is it just because when you test 200,000 people in a day you find more cases?

Italy and Spain's published new cases are probably reliable and equal measures over recent days because their health sector is pushed to the limit, and thus I think we can rely on their data. We can't rely on it in other countries because they are doing different things each day. When you take No. of new cases today/no. of cases yesterday you rely on the data bein calculated in the same way. If they change collection techniques then the test is not so good.
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Testing and case numbers are meaningless.

The only figure that truly matters is the rate of increase in deaths. If it's over 33% the pandemic is out of control. If its 20% or lower then it's coming under control.
 
Just checked the intensive care specialist's numbers not because I thought he was wrong but because I like messing around in excel.

When you pass flu on, you on average infect 1.3 people. They then pass it on, at this point 1.69 people have been infected.
Now he said on average with covid 19 you infect 3 people. Now this doesn't look too bad. 3 vs 1.3 does it. But when those three pass it on you have 9 infected as opposed to 1.69. Significant.
Go through 10 stages and it's ridiculous.

Flu: 14 people infected
Covid 19: 60,000 infected

Mind boggling.
 
robbieh said:
It was in ABC so probably a load of Vox types.

As you say nobody I've heard is complaining but then again it's pretty difficult to hear what they are saying as we are all in isolation.

On a broader point I think young Spanish people have much closer ties to their grandparents, which then extends to the elderly in general. Which might be why healthy young people are prepared to stay in indoors.
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Vox would explain it. I'm sure voting would be different elsewhere.
 
This is crazy. A doctor in Spain saying that their colleague is a genius for inventing a way of splitting ventilators.

I posted on this thread over a week ago that this was possible after hearing a doctor on 5 live talk about it. A paper was published about it 4 years ago

Clearly the information isnt being spread around quickly or effectively enough. This information will save thousands of lives across the world if everyone knows about it.



 
DazWA9 said:
Most companies don't give a shit mate. One woman here came back from Tenerife on a saturday and she was in work on the Monday... Not a thing said. It's really beginning to annoy me now.[/QUOTe
Daz a few of you guys at work need to have a word with your manager this woman is a complete idiot mate good luck.
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Just been for a run the streets are dead a few dog walkers and people walking all in twos and being sensible . Completely different to yesterday
 
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