COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[twosips]

I am afraid i don't put everything on stats or modelling,oh and i got it wembly weekend

How do you know you got it at Wembley out of curiosity? It can take from as little as a few days to as long as 20 odd to incubate cant it? Genuinely curious.

 

[Gabriel]

they changed the way they diagnosed it causing the spike in cases and deaths.

Different points. You're referring to the merging of figures on February 12th, but I was referring to the number of deaths recorded on February 23rd. The number of deaths had been declining in the days before when suddenly it shot up again to 150.

 

[kaz7]

No, we all know you have very little regard for science.

You have too much,i got it going to wembley and back,trains,pubs,hotel,taxis more trains,crowd of nearly 90,000,that is what i look at,in my working life i have spend many years reading,learning,teaching science,it is not the bee all and end all,experience with real people matters just as much

 

[Bigga]

Do we have any Icelandic friends on BM?

Is this real or a false story...?

https://grapevine.is/news/2020/03/24/patient-infected-with-two-strains-of-covid-19-in-iceland/

 

[M18CTID]

The rest of the world, bar maybe us, Sweden and Switzerland took a more suppressive strategy which is why we’ve been criticised and singled out. We’ve now adopted that same approach after the ICL modelling shown the mitigation strategy to be disastrous. If you still think letting millions go to football matches around the country was wise and letting business continue as usual despite the vast majority of experts from around the world generally agreeing that suppression strategy is now the only way to fight it then you’re the one who thinks they know better than the experts I’m afraid.

Netherlands? And I’m not sure Germany were particularly suppressive particularly early. Madrid a huge hot spot yet the Spanish government allowed 3000 Atletico fans to travel to England for a football match (and yes, we were equally daft to let them in). Not to mention an Austrian ski resort suspected of covering up an outbreak. A lot of countries have made mistakes IMO

 

[Vic]

Do you ever see anything positive?

Nasty and irresponsible employers having to pay compensation to their exploited and endangered employees seems very positive.

 

[kaz7]

How do you know you got it at Wembley out of curiosity? It can take from as little as a few days to as long as 20 odd to incubate cant it? Genuinely curious.

Because i am largely agrophobic,i spend weeks not leaving the house,i literally went to wembly, came back,straight back into my bubble then it started about 3days later,i can absolutely say for sure i got it on that trip,i am pretty unique in that i can trace it right down

 

[M18CTID]

we are not testing anyone not going to hospital now,we wouldn't know if the whole crowd got it if they didn't go to hospital,not knowing the age and health of them

What’s Ireland’s policy on testing? Remember that tens of thousands of Irish travel over for Cheltenham every year.

 

[SB Blue]

Some people have done, but the global average is 5 days.

So unless there's a reason that all people who like horse racing have an incubation period 3x longer than average, there would be effects by now.

At the start of last week my area, Tameside, had more cases than Liverpool. Now it’s 43 vs 100, while Liverpool might not be a hot spot compared to some areas, it’s increasing at a fast rate, had only 14 cases on 20th March, also significantly above Manchester now.

 

[sir baconface]

I can't imagine youre off the hook (unfortunstely) even if you're on medication, but I can imagine you've got a notably better chance if you actually stick to it. We all know people who don't take their medication properly sadly!

I take it religiously but have heart-related medical issues too.

Not sure if I’ve had the letter to say I’m in the vulnerable category as I’m socially isolating away from home!

 

[kaz7]

What’s Ireland’s policy on testing? Remember that tens of thousands of Irish travel over for Cheltenham every year.

Found this

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0324/1124971-coronavirus-covid19-ireland/

 

[sir baconface]

Do you ever see anything positive?

Nasty and irresponsible employers having to pay compensation to their exploited and endangered employees seems very positive.

By your standards I’d imagine you’re about to cream your pants any time now.

 

[kaz7]

We have opened up the equivelent of 50 hospitals,we have a huge spike coming it seems

 

[DRINKLEVEDRY]

I got it because I'm on medication that affects my immune system, I know of a few people who thought they would be grounded because of Copd or heart problems didn't hear anything

Cheers mate stay safe.

 

[ganganvince]

By your standards I’d imagine you’re about to cream your pants any time now.

Tooting popular front springs to mind

 

[meltonblue]

I do not agree mate.

Deaths are very accurate, easily trackable numbers which clearly show how the disease is progressing throughout the population. Number of cases does not provide that clarity. If you test twice as many people, your number of cases will shoot up, even though the rate of infection has not increased. Ditto stopping testing suspected cases as we did a few days back. So it is a very poor and unreliable indicator. Deaths has no such variability or potential for inaccuracy.

I think we’re talking at cross purposes here. The indicator of the spread of the disease, then deaths is currently a better way of seeing that. Given we are testing all hospitalised cases though, the best prediction of future deaths is taking that and working out the proportional increase. There should be a correlation in general terms.

That will change as testing changes (as in the proportion should then decrease)

 

[Vic]

Me to. Is high BP, controlled with medication, high risk? (I’m in that bracket.) Or just uncontrolled high BP?

As an aside, I would have thought that most people with high BP would be under treatment. There again, you can’t take anything for granted.

Don’t we have any medically qualified posters?

If second hand will do, my nursing lecturer friend (who's going to back on wards or perhaps teaching how to intubate patients) thinks it's more to do with general fitness. So despite several "underlying conditions", I can still run short sprints with no problem. They are underlying conditions (some probably typical for a man of my age) but not usually an issue, but I'm obviously more vulnerable than some.

He reckons there are 70 ICU beds in Manchester and they estimate they will need 500.

 

[blueparrot]

We have opened up the equivelent of 50 hospitals,we have a huge spike coming it seems

We have a spike coming in the next two weeks, but if we are planning well we will plan over capacity , the more over the better hopefully. Think I saw initially there are 500 beds going in the Nightingale, though the capacity is 4000, we’ll most likely need more than 500 but hopefully wont reach 4000.

 

[kaz7]

We have a spike coming in the next two weeks, but if we are planning well we will plan over capacity , the more over the better hopefully. Think I saw initially there are 500 beds going in the Nightingale, though the capacity is 4000, we’ll most likely need more than 500 but hopefully wont reach 4000.

I am a bit scared

 

[BosnianBlue]

16 years old girl died in Paris. No underlying health conditions.