COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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Newman Noggs said:
Cheers GDB. So the first cases were recorded in late January. Bearing in mind that hardly anyone was tested it was clearly knocking around for some time prior to that. Late December/early January I would say but, like everyone else on here, I don't know for certain.
Click to expand...
The timeline in there suggests differently.
COVID-19 cases in the United Kingdom (
)
Deaths Confirmed cases
Date
Cases (% rise)
Deaths (% rise)
2020-01-31




2(n.a.)
2020-02-01




2
2020-02-02




2
2020-02-03




2
2020-02-04




2
2020-02-05




2
2020-02-06




3(50%)
2020-02-07




3
2020-02-08




3
2020-02-09




4(33%)
2020-02-10




8(100%)
2020-02-11




8
2020-02-12




8
2020-02-13




9(13%)
2020-02-14




9
2020-02-15




9
2020-02-16




9
2020-02-17




9
2020-02-18




9
2020-02-19




9
2020-02-20




9
2020-02-21




9
2020-02-22




9
2020-02-23




9
2020-02-24




13(44%)
2020-02-25




13
2020-02-26




13
2020-02-27




13
2020-02-28




19(46%)
2020-02-29




23(21%)
2020-03-01




35(52%)
2020-03-02




40(14%)
2020-03-03




51(28%)
2020-03-04



85(67%)
2020-03-05



114(34%) 1(n.a.)
2020-03-06


160(40%) 2(100%)
2020-03-07


206(29%) 2
2020-03-08


271(32%) 3(50%)
2020-03-09


321(18%) 5(67%)
2020-03-10


373(16%) 6(20%)
2020-03-11


456(22%) 8(33%)
2020-03-12


590(29%) 8
2020-03-13


797(35%) 10(25%)
2020-03-14


1,061(33%) 21(110%)
2020-03-15


1,391(31%) 35(67%)
2020-03-16


1,543(11%) 55(57%)
2020-03-17


1,950(26%) 71(29%)
2020-03-18


2,626(35%) 103(45%)
2020-03-19


3,269(24%) 144(40%)
2020-03-20


3,983(22%) 177(23%)
2020-03-21


5,018(27%) 233(32%)
2020-03-22


5,683(13%) 281(21%)
2020-03-23



6,650(17%) 335(19%)
2020-03-24



8,077(21%) 422(26%https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/202...n_the_United_Kingdom#cite_note-delay_25Mar-38)
2020-03-25



9,529(18%) 578(37%)
2020-03-26



11,658(22%) 759(31%)
2020-03-27



14,543(25%) 1,019(34%)
2020-03-28



17,089(18%) 1,228(21%)
2020-03-29



19,522(14%) 1,408(15%)
2020-03-30



22,141(13%) 1,789(27%)
2020-03-31



25,150(14%) 2,352(31%)
2020-04-01



29,474(17%) 2,921(24%)
2020-04-02



33,718(14%) 3,605(23%)
2020-04-03



38,168(13%) 4,313(20%)
2020-04-04



41,892(9.8%) 4,932(14%)
2020-04-05



47,806(14%) 5,373(8.9%)
2020-04-06



51,608(8.0%) 6,159(15%)
2020-04-07



55,242(7.0%) 7,097(15%)
2020-04-08



60,733(9.9%) 7,978(12%)
2020-04-09



65,077(7.2%) 8,958(12%)
2020-04-10



70,272(8.0%) 9,875(10%)
2020-04-11



78,991(12%[ii]) 10,612(7.5%)
2020-04-12
 
Newman Noggs said:
Cheers GDB. So the first cases were recorded in late January. Bearing in mind that hardly anyone was tested it was clearly knocking around for some time prior to that. Late December/early January I would say but, like everyone else on here, I don't know for certain.
Click to expand...
You’ve completely misread or misunderstood that link of you believe that.
 
kevin horlocks wand said:
what ?

you are criticising people for going for a walk , run or bike ride whilst you continue to run your non essential business. Driving around visiting home to home to do your business. Unless you are delivering medicines or food I don’t think you are in any position to have a go at others.

you literally are criticising people for “justifying what they do “ to exercise whilst going on about justifying your position.

if you are saying well I can run my business as it’s in the govt guidelines fine, those going exercising are doing so too. The vast majority of those will be out for under an hour , not all day, nor will they be at someone else’s house.

If you think full lockdown is important practice what you preach
Click to expand...

So me driving from my house, and not coming into contact with ANYBODY is similar to walking/running/cycling near other people? (BTW some of my work is essential, i'm not a gardener in case that is what you are thinking)
The parks are stuffed with people.
If you can do these activities without coming across other people then fine. But the reality is you cannot in most places. I was running round Dovestone three times a week before the lockdown. Because i couldn't do it safely i have stopped.

As i mentioned, i tried to keep my business going in a safe way. This has been made impossible, due to people visiting other people. So the point being, if you cannot do an activity safely, then don't do it.
I'm not getting any help with money. I would be happy if somebody was paying 80% of my wages. Even claiming some form of benefits would take months to sort out. Trying to compare somebody trying earn a living to somebody taking non essential unsafe exercise is crackers.
Outdoor exercise is not essential. You may prefer it, but there are other ways.
Since i cannot continue to do it safely, i have said im closing down. So what's your beef?
 
Last edited:
MillionMilesAway said:
First, I would be staggered if there was a working vaccine ready for mass use before this time next year.

RNAs are chains of subunits. RNA viruses are such that they inveigle their way into body cells, and get themselves replicated by the cell's own machinery.
A lot of vaccines are similar to the main virus, but with a few changes such that the RNA doesn't do anything bad (or at least gives a very minor dose, in some cases) when it's replicated.
What the vaccine still has to do is provoke the immune response of the body to a pathogen, creating the antibodies that fight it off (one mechanism is that the antibody binds around a part of the virus, and prevent it doing anything).

For RNA vaccines, making it then is probably not that difficult, as machines will make it automatically. However, you're still looking at months before there's mass dosage. I can't see mass immunisation being an automatic plan, unless Covid-19 keeps coming back.

There are other immunisation principles which could be followed - anything that provokes the immune response would work, and that doesn't necessarily have to be an RNA vaccine (I expect it would be a main aim though).
Click to expand...
I’m not entirely sure a strand of RNA is capable of inveigling anything!
 
Cheesy said:
I don't know where you lot all live but it's like a ghost town round here.

Went to get shopping yesterday, drove through town and there was barely a soul about.
Click to expand...

Fantasy land where their jackanory is welcomed and social media.

Thats where they live.
 
MillionMilesAway said:
Possibly true, and certainly not consciously, for obvious reasons.
Click to expand...
I’ve been ridiculously good at inveigling my way into things, especially in relation to nightclub guest lists (down the years) and busy restaurants on a Saturday night (pre-‘lockdown’) - it’s a genuine art - so I don’t take kindly to being compared to a virus! :-)
 
Newman Noggs said:
That's reassuring, thanks Chippy.

Just out of interest, do you believe that the first person to catch Covid19 in the UK got it on 5th March ?

If not, since you evidently know these things, how long before that did it arrive ? A day ? A week ? A month ? 2 months ?
Click to expand...
I seem to recall the first British people to bring it to the UK was a group of skiers who had shared a chalet in France. One of them had been in Singapore where he caught it and then the people who shared the chalet caught it off him. They all returned to the UK, the South Coast iirc, where they spread it to others. Not sure of the exact timeline but before the 5th March we were looking at going skiing that week had already decided to call it off due to some cases being announced in Austria and France, the two places we had been looking at.
 
Gaylord du Bois said:
The timeline in there suggests differently.
COVID-19 cases in the United Kingdom (
)
Deaths Confirmed cases
Date
Cases (% rise)
Deaths (% rise)
2020-01-31




2(n.a.)
2020-02-01




2
2020-02-02




2
2020-02-03




2
2020-02-04




2
2020-02-05




2
2020-02-06




3(50%)
2020-02-07




3
2020-02-08




3
2020-02-09




4(33%)
2020-02-10




8(100%)
2020-02-11




8
2020-02-12




8
2020-02-13




9(13%)
2020-02-14




9
2020-02-15




9
2020-02-16




9
2020-02-17




9
2020-02-18




9
2020-02-19




9
2020-02-20




9
2020-02-21




9
2020-02-22




9
2020-02-23




9
2020-02-24




13(44%)
2020-02-25




13
2020-02-26




13
2020-02-27




13
2020-02-28




19(46%)
2020-02-29




23(21%)
2020-03-01




35(52%)
2020-03-02




40(14%)
2020-03-03




51(28%)
2020-03-04



85(67%)
2020-03-05



114(34%) 1(n.a.)
2020-03-06


160(40%) 2(100%)
2020-03-07


206(29%) 2
2020-03-08


271(32%) 3(50%)
2020-03-09


321(18%) 5(67%)
2020-03-10


373(16%) 6(20%)
2020-03-11


456(22%) 8(33%)
2020-03-12


590(29%) 8
2020-03-13


797(35%) 10(25%)
2020-03-14


1,061(33%) 21(110%)
2020-03-15


1,391(31%) 35(67%)
2020-03-16


1,543(11%) 55(57%)
2020-03-17


1,950(26%) 71(29%)
2020-03-18


2,626(35%) 103(45%)
2020-03-19


3,269(24%) 144(40%)
2020-03-20


3,983(22%) 177(23%)
2020-03-21


5,018(27%) 233(32%)
2020-03-22


5,683(13%) 281(21%)
2020-03-23



6,650(17%) 335(19%)
2020-03-24



8,077(21%) 422(26%)
2020-03-25



9,529(18%) 578(37%)
2020-03-26



11,658(22%) 759(31%)
2020-03-27



14,543(25%) 1,019(34%)
2020-03-28



17,089(18%) 1,228(21%)
2020-03-29



19,522(14%) 1,408(15%)
2020-03-30



22,141(13%) 1,789(27%)
2020-03-31



25,150(14%) 2,352(31%)
2020-04-01



29,474(17%) 2,921(24%)
2020-04-02



33,718(14%) 3,605(23%)
2020-04-03



38,168(13%) 4,313(20%)
2020-04-04



41,892(9.8%) 4,932(14%)
2020-04-05



47,806(14%) 5,373(8.9%)
2020-04-06



51,608(8.0%) 6,159(15%)
2020-04-07



55,242(7.0%) 7,097(15%)
2020-04-08



60,733(9.9%) 7,978(12%)
2020-04-09



65,077(7.2%) 8,958(12%)
2020-04-10



70,272(8.0%) 9,875(10%)
2020-04-11



78,991(12%[ii]) 10,612(7.5%)
2020-04-12
Click to expand...
Unless I too am reading that wrong that puts the first confirmed cases 31 January. So assuming they had incubated and shown symptoms a few days before testing. So that puts them catching it and spreading it to approx 26th Jan. So did these cases catch it abroad or in the UK were they known to each other, guess we don’t know that.
 
blueparrot said:
Unless I too am reading that wrong that puts the first confirmed cases 31 January. So assuming they had incubated and shown symptoms a few days before testing. So that puts them catching it and spreading it to approx 26th Jan. So did these cases catch it abroad or in the UK were they known to each other, guess we don’t know that.
Click to expand...
From Wikipedia.
Late January 2020 – first cases
On 22 January, following a confirmed case of COVID-19 in the United States the previous day, in a man returning to Washington from Wuhan, China, where there were 440 confirmed cases at the time, the DHSC and PHE raised the risk level from "very low" to "low". As a result, Heathrow Airport received additional clinical support and tightened surveillance of the three direct flights that it received from Wuhan every week; each were to be met by a Port Health team with Mandarin and Cantonese language support. In addition, all airports in the UK were to make written guidance available for unwell travellers.[37][38] Simultaneously, efforts to trace 2,000 people who had flown into the UK from Wuhan over the previous 14 days were made.[39]

On 31 January, two members of a family of Chinese nationals staying in a hotel in York, one of whom studied at the University of York, became the first confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the UK. Upon confirmation, they were transferred from Hull University Teaching Hospital to a specialist isolation facility, a designated High Consequence Infectious Diseases Unit in Newcastle upon Tyne.[4][40] The index case for the UK, a 50-year-old female who had travelled from Hubei province and entered the UK on 23 January, had developed fever and fatigue after three days. Her close household contact, a 23-year-old student who had travelled from Hubei province on 6 January, developed symptoms on 28 January.[41]

On the same day, an evacuation flight from Wuhan landed at RAF Brize Norton and the passengers, none of whom were showing symptoms, were taken to quarantine, in a staff residential block at Arrowe Park Hospital on the Wirral.[42] There had previously been contention over whether the government should assist the repatriation of UK passport holders from the most affected areas in China, or restrict travel from affected regions altogether.[43][44] Some British nationals in Wuhan had been informed that they could be evacuated but any spouses or children with mainland Chinese passports could not.[45] This was later overturned, but the delay meant that some people missed the flight.[42]
 
MillionMilesAway said:
First, I would be staggered if there was a working vaccine ready for mass use before this time next year.

RNAs are chains of subunits. RNA viruses are such that they inveigle their way into body cells, and get themselves replicated by the cell's own machinery.
A lot of vaccines are similar to the main virus, but with a few changes such that the RNA doesn't do anything bad (or at least gives a very minor dose, in some cases) when it's replicated.
What the vaccine still has to do is provoke the immune response of the body to a pathogen, creating the antibodies that fight it off (one mechanism is that the antibody binds around a part of the virus, and prevent it doing anything).

For RNA vaccines, making it then is probably not that difficult, as machines will make it automatically. However, you're still looking at months before there's mass dosage. I can't see mass immunisation being an automatic plan, unless Covid-19 keeps coming back.

There are other immunisation principles which could be followed - anything that provokes the immune response would work, and that doesn't necessarily have to be an RNA vaccine (I expect it would be a main aim though).
Click to expand...
Depends what you mean by mass use. There are plenty of reports of companies planning on timelines which commence with immunisation in September. That doesn't mean they will be met of course. There's a report involving Oxford Uni on the BBC live feed at the moment

"A coronavirus vaccine could be available for the general public by September, according to a professor of vaccinology at Oxford University. Professor Sarah Gilbert told BBC Radio 4's Today programme that clinical trials of the vaccine would "be starting quite soon" and that production processes need to be set in motion quickly. "We need to start manufacturing large amounts of the vaccine," she said. "It is not uncommon for companies to start manufacturing a new vaccine before they really know for certain it works..."
 
Thing is, people are debating about whether they’ve had it earlier this year based on certain symptoms (which is entirely understandable btw) but the truth is that there will be far more people posting on this thread who’ve got it now and aren’t displaying any symptoms.

Some of them might even now be debating whether they had it in January (which they didn’t) when they have it now.
 
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