COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[Fame Monster]

There are a few articles on this back in february. I'll dig them out when I'm feeling a bit better tomorrow.
Basically PHE sets the scientific rules and NICE and other NHS bodies delivers the guidence. NICE or the other bodies are in no way flexible so "could" advice is interpreted as "shouldn't" or "won't". It's the way monothic bureaucracy works.

I look forward to reading them. As I say, the scientific docs I’ve seen so far that the Gov’t have relied on haven’t come from NHS management although I’ll be interested to see more.

 

[MillionMilesAway]

A few points from the ONS for the week ending 3 April:

• Of the deaths registered in Week 14, 3,475 mentioned “novel coronavirus (COVID-19)”, which was 21.2% of all deaths; this compares with 539 (4.8% of all deaths) in Week 13.
  
  
• In London, nearly half (46.6%) of deaths registered in Week 14 involved COVID-19; the West Midlands also had a high proportion of COVID-19 deaths, accounting for 22.1% of deaths registered in this region.
  
  
• Of deaths involving COVID-19 registered up to Week 14, 90.2% (3,716 deaths) occurred in hospital, with the remainder occurring in hospices, care homes and private homes

 

[give it to gordon]

Doing the food bank run today at work ....just passed a couple towing a caravan behind their car ! Racking my brains as to what trip is essential that you need your caravan for ?

 

[BlueAnorak]

Do all viruses happen in "waves"?
Genuine question.

Epidemics do yes.
The number of new cases increases logrithmicly till the virus can no longer infect new hosts when it starts to collapse again forming a lovely (log-)bionomial distribution in each location. Only when a new population becomes available to the virus does it spread again.

 

[SPIDERBOY]

Doing the food bank run today at work ....just passed a couple towing a caravan behind their car ! Racking my brains as to what trip is essential that you need your caravan for ?

Police should do what they do to cars with no tax etc........crush them.

 

[DrBlueBob]

Doing the food bank run today at work ....just passed a couple towing a caravan behind their car ! Racking my brains as to what trip is essential that you need your caravan for ?

I am struggling to answer that. Benefit of the doubt, the caravan is full of food for the food banks. The likely answer is the more obviuos one.

 

[Marvin]

Do all viruses happen in "waves"?
Genuine question.

Providing the virus is new to the population the answer is yes because the number of new infections at some time t is a function of the number infected at time 0. Hence the more infections you have the faster it finds news hosts.....until immunity starts to kick in.

 

[i8rags]

Doing the food bank run today at work ....just passed a couple towing a caravan behind their car ! Racking my brains as to what trip is essential that you need your caravan for ?

Should be towing the line.

 

[Deleted member 77198]

Doing the food bank run today at work ....just passed a couple towing a caravan behind their car ! Racking my brains as to what trip is essential that you need your caravan for ?

They might live in the caravan and have been moved in from where they were situated (just trying to play devil’s advocate; they’re probably just cunts off on a holiday)

 

[give it to gordon]

They might live in the caravan and have been moved in from where they were situated (just trying to play devil’s advocate; they’re probably just cunts off on a holiday)

If they were people who live in a caravan they would be towing with a white transit or a big white pickup truck ;)

They looked like 'normal' caravaners lol

 

[Indaparkside]

Do all viruses happen in "waves"?
Genuine question.

No some are in shaking hands

 

[robbieh]

On the 31st March Spain had over 9,000 new cases, the peak.

Today 3,000.

I think that is good news which should be replicated in the UK soon.

 

[worsleyweb]

On the 31st March Spain had over 9,000 new cases, the peak.

Today 3,000.

I think that is good news which should be replicated in the UK soon.

I cant get my head round this - will it just grow again and the next peak just be smaller and this is repeated several times?

 

[Fame Monster]

On the 31st March Spain had over 9,000 new cases, the peak.

Today 3,000.

I think that is good news which should be replicated in the UK soon.

Good news although the Spanish locked down a good fortnight before we did and when they did, it was a lot harder. I still think it’ll be May before we see the death toll fall in the UK but hopefully I’ll be wrong and we’ll follow suit within the next few days.

 

[Deleted member 77198]

On the 31st March Spain had over 9,000 new cases, the peak.

Today 3,000.

I think that is good news which should be replicated in the UK soon.

It’s difficult to see what will happen with us.

Spain and Italy actually had a lockdown, whereas we haven’t.

I think our peak may last longer than theirs because of this and we will have to be in this partial lockdown for longer than they were/are in their forms.

 

[robbieh]

I cant get my head round this - will it just grow again and the next peak just be smaller and this is repeated several times?

I'm sure if we just went back to work, school whatever then yes, but as you say with decreasing peaks as more people develop immunity.

Suspect Spain will want to see new cases under a 1000 in a coupl of weeks and then decide the next step.

I have heard masks will be available to everybody an of course wearing them, keeping distance it should be possible to keep new cases lowish.

This gives hospitals, care homes etc breathing space.

Under those circumstances people who need hospitalisation would have better outcomes.

 

[domalino]

Good news although the Spanish locked down a good fortnight before we did and when they did, it was a lot harder. I still think it’ll be May before we see the death toll fall in the UK but hopefully I’ll be wrong and we’ll follow suit within the next few days.

Spain locked down on March 15th, we locked down March 23rd. So 8 days, not a good fortnight.

We also had the same number of cases at the time of lockdown.

 

[yerwot?]

without a vaccine, if just one person is carrying it then off it goes again. Testing 60+million is beyond our capabilities, so without test-and-trace....and if a vaccine became available how long would it take to inoculate every one.....one outcome could be "involuntary herd immunity" providing there is no mutation of cv 19 to whatever comes next.

 

[worsleyweb]

without a vaccine, if just one person is carrying it then off it goes again. Testing 60+million is beyond our capabilities, so without test-and-trace....and if a vaccine became available how long would it take to inoculate every one.....one outcome could be "involuntary herd immunity" providing there is no mutation of cv 19 to whatever comes next.

I think it goes off again at a much lower pace - i think i read that Germany suspects 15% of people have had it. If that is teh case the R rate is 2.1 not 2.6. So the more that have had it the lower the next peak. Thats my understanding.

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

I cant get my head round this - will it just grow again and the next peak just be smaller and this is repeated several times?

Sadly, without a vaccine (especially if there is no long lasting immunity), this is exactly what will happen. All we are trying to do currently is stop the NHS getting overwhelmed which, although it will mean more infections, should mean fewer deaths (fewer deaths from Covid-19, although maybe not from everything else). The only way it can be fully stopped is if every country in the world, locks down until there are no new transmissions and that nobody travels, between countries, until all countries have no new transmissions either. That seems somewhat unlikely as we’re still letting in flights from New York and Milan!