COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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Gaylord du Bois said:
Is that just for the one day, or is it a daily slot ?
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Starting daily from tomorrow. We have a 4 phase plan over the next month with more businesses being allowed to open in some capacity or other.
Still many restrictions and caveats but we are seeing light at the end of the tunnel.
 
Marvin said:
After 4 months of this madness, generally speaking countries are where they are based on their strategy.

In a battle of virus /humanity you would think that the only strategy is total resistance but a small group of countries have adopted the resistance is futile approach. Their intention is not to suppress the virus entirely but to shield their most vulnerable people, and to flatten the epidemic's peak by limited measures whilst allowing the virus to spread at a controlled rate.

If resistance is futile, then the area under everyone's curve is the same, and it is better for society to do it quickly rather than slowly (but not so quick that it overwhelms your health system). Most countries have the economic strength for one lockdown but that would be it.

The countries following this strategy have generally higher death rates as you would naturally expect but they are also closer to the end of the tunnel and are insured by some limited immunity against the devastating effects of a 2nd lockdown.

If you look at it from the point of herd immunity advocates then you can't compare deaths by country now because some countries are just much further along in their eventual infection than others, and they will all get their in the end.

The problem with this strategy is that it ignores the fact that humanity will more than likely outwit the virus. However, it is a conservative strategy with some merit. It is a long and hard strategy but it is guaranteed to get there. Nations like South Korea resist through operating very smartly but you cannot operate under siege forever.

It feels a little safer in the UK because I am already pretty confident that the UK wont go through another 2nd wave because so many people have already been infected, however that is not a reason to be happy because it came at a high price.

I don't really think you can say that there is a right way and a wrong way to do this. There are different strategies that take different routes based largely on expectations of the timing of a vaccine. Should a society battle to save every life knowing that if a vaccine is 18 months away then probably more people will die in the long run?

As the moment the pendulum has swung towards total resistance because the vaccines are all lining up and there is no scientific reason I am aware of as to why a vaccine can not and will not be successful. I think it would be wise for the Oxford vaccine group to expand their trial to somewhere like Moscow where the virus is growing fast, but if they could I think they would have done. So now we just wait and hope. I expect we'll know before May is out.
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Whilst not disagreeing with anything in that post, the caveat must be that, despite all the positive noises, there is absolutely no guarantee that there will ever be a vaccine and a strategy that relies on something that may never happen, isn’t really a strategy at all. I hear a lot of very senior people who use the phrase ‘until we’ve got a vaccine” as if it’s somehow a given. Not only that, but thalidomide must be the cautionary tale as to the danger of rushing these things, making a vaccine by autumn 2021 still pretty unlikely.
From a ‘herd immunity’ perspective, we know who this virus particularly likes to target and who it’s not that bothered about, so, encouraging immunity should be quite straightforward if we’re prepared to go down that road. Protect the vulnerable and let the infection spread through the rest of the population, whilst making sure that population doesn’t come into contact with the vulnerable. Easier said than done, I’m sure, but something worth at least discussing, I’d have thought?
 
Pablo1 said:
We are allowed out tomorrow here in Spain for an hours walk.
Sadly I will miss out as I've been allocated the times between 6am and 10am (when I'm still in bed) or 8pm and 11pm (when I'm usually blind drunk)
Oh well, such is life.
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Welcome to our world!
 
The Light Was Yellow Sir said:
Whilst not disagreeing with anything in that post, the caveat must be that, despite all the positive noises, there is absolutely no guarantee that there will ever be a vaccine and a strategy that relies on something that may never happen, isn’t really a strategy at all. I hear a lot of very senior people who use the phrase ‘until we’ve got a vaccine” as if it’s somehow a given. Not only that, but thalidomide must be the cautionary tale as to the danger of rushing these things, making a vaccine by autumn 2021 still pretty unlikely.
From a ‘herd immunity’ perspective, we know who this virus particularly likes to target and who it’s not that bothered about, so, encouraging immunity should be quite straightforward if we’re prepared to go down that road. Protect the vulnerable and let the infection spread through the rest of the population, whilst making sure that population doesn’t come into contact with the vulnerable. Easier said than done, I’m sure, but something worth at least discussing, I’d have thought?
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Protecting the vulnerable has failed as we have seen in care homes. A vaccine is likely but it might not be a panacea and we don’t know with confidence when a vaccine will be available. It’s more likely that a combination of approaches including: social distancing; handwashing; PPE; possibly wearing gloves and face masks; test, trace and isolate / treat; travel restrictions; and a vaccine, (eventually) will see us get through this.
 
KnaresboroughBlue said:
I noticed both the Czechs and Germans have had an increasing number of cases since they relaxed their lockdowns. It will be interesting to see if they go ahead with easing the restrictions further, as planned, or if they tighten them up again.
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it is bizarre the story yesterday morning was Germany is thinking or tightening lockdown again as cases start to rise.

this morning the ticker tape was Germany eases lockdown further by opening zoos and museums.
 
Bit of perspective thrown up from my Welsh family history burrowing today:

"Plague was a recurring threat between 1650-1750:
" [Laugharne] Registers 1656 to May, 1660. Transcribed from Registry of James Gregory.
"King Charles the 2nd's happy arrival at this time put an end to the sequestrators tyrrany to whom this J.G. was secretary."
1664 has a long death roll. "It is supposed the sweating sickness reigned.
1675. "36 died, whereof 24 of small pox."
1690. "46 died, reigned a raging fever." '
1729. "A Tertian ague reigned, which proved mortal to most that had it," 66.
1730. "An uncommon ague," 50.''
Four or five men in this register of deaths are described as Tobacco rowlers, almost the only instances where trade or station is stated.!

"In Haverforwest 1652 opened gloomily. On New Year Day (March 25th) there were three deaths; two of these were Parrotts. At the mayor's expense two shrouds were delivered to Walter Parrott, who had already lost a child on the 13th. There were three deaths on the 27th, and four on the 28th. On the 29th Walter Parrott and Margrett his wife followed their children to the tomb. The Plague in Haverfordwest (1895) Rev J Phillips

Other diseases such as smallpox, cholera, dysentery were also endemic in the ports of South West Wales.
 
Tim of the Oak said:
Protecting the vulnerable has failed as we have seen in care homes. A vaccine is likely but it might not be a panacea and we don’t know with confidence when a vaccine will be available. It’s more likely that a combination of approaches including: social distancing; handwashing; PPE; possibly wearing gloves and face masks; test, trace and isolate / treat; travel restrictions; and a vaccine, (eventually) will see us get through this.
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I think that the virus is gradually killing the most vulnerable whilst finding targets amongst others who didnt realise they had vulnerabilities'.
How can we protect the vulnerable of.all ages when the increasing majority are deliberately being infected?
 
SilverFox2 said:
I think that the virus is gradually killing the most vulnerable whilst finding targets amongst others who didnt realise they had vulnerabilities'.
How can we protect the vulnerable of.all ages when the increasing majority are deliberately being infected?
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I agree SilverFox2 they shielding sections of the community is problematic. Vulnerable people can isolate to a extent but they are, for example, often visited by carers, in the case of many frail and older people etc.
 
One thing should be certain , the border with the US should be closed. The rest of the World needs to block any incomings from the USA.The paucity of organisation , leadership, and communication between federal and state entities will result in massive fatalities. Deaths will continue at 60000 a month for the next 12 months.
The response to Coronavirus in the states has really exposed their society for what it is.

Civil disobedience, riots on the streets, food shortages could be imminent.
 
BlueAnorak said:
As of yesterday, Brent (4,044 cases per million), home of Wembley stadium is no longer the Coronavirus capital of the UK. That accolade now goes to Sunderland (4,102 cases per million). It wasn't in the top 30 COVID-19 hotspots when the lockdown began but it's rise up the list has been relentless.
I reckon they must be having house parties by the bucket full
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Having watched two seasons of Sunderland Til I Die, it’s off to hear them moving up a table.
 
I think we can say we now have enough PPE as today's news stories are now concentrating on the fact that PPE is too big for most of our female health workers.
 
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