COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[Nebuchadnezzar]

https://forums.bluemoon-mcfc.co.uk/...scussion-thread.345088/page-535#post-12630590

 

[JASR]

Unfortunately the obsession of some on here with the death league is morbid.

I wouldn't say I'm obsessed with morbidity, more with factual (and transferable) statistics.

Putting aside political point scoring (both sides), a simple graph showing daily death rates vs expected death rates shows how bad it is

From a few weeks ago:
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/16/tracking-covid-19-excess-deaths-across-countries

UK: 100% rise in expected daily death rates
New York: 400%
Lombardy (Italy): 300%

It's a bit more than just a mild flu.

 

[Tim of the Oak]

If any way of listening to him, anyone obsessed with counting deaths should listen to this UK statistician professor Ian Diamond that was on Andrew Marr this morning, explained very well about how we are right at the top with regards to official reporting and keen to get deaths registered faster than practically any other country. Then, as we’ve said on here, confirmed that you won’t really be able to compare deaths until all of this is over.

True Ranny, plus we didn’t have the testing capacity 6 weeks ago and if we had we might have taken a different approach as the Minister has just said. The key thing is that the numbers of cases continues to be managed down and there will be plenty of time for a review, probably next year.

That said, I hope we become self sustaining / reliant in terms of testing capacity, PPE manufacturing for the future.

 

[ganganvince]

I wouldn't say I'm obsessed with morbidity, more with factual (and transferable) statistics.

Putting aside political point scoring (both sides), a simple graph showing daily death rates vs expected death rates shows how bad it is

From a few weeks ago:
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/16/tracking-covid-19-excess-deaths-across-countries

UK: 100% rise in expected daily death rates
New York: 400%
Lombardy (Italy): 300%

It's a bit more than just a mild flu.

Article which explains why daily death rates is unreliable accept too many have died but the time for review is some months away.
https://www.theguardian.com/comment...how-does-britain-compare-with-other-countries

 

[Tim of the Oak]

I wouldn't say I'm obsessed with morbidity, more with factual (and transferable) statistics.

Putting aside political point scoring (both sides), a simple graph showing daily death rates vs expected death rates shows how bad it is

From a few weeks ago:
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/16/tracking-covid-19-excess-deaths-across-countries

UK: 100% rise in expected daily death rates
New York: 400%
Lombardy (Italy): 300%

It's a bit more than just a mild flu.

That’s a good article JASR. I have been in contact with friends in Bergamo during the crisis and they were living in fear. They had no qualms about abiding by the lockdown.

 

[Rammy Blue]

Here we go, for anyone interested, it’s the link to Professor Ian Diamond, head of ONS, on the Andrew Marr show this morning discussing deaths figures.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52519440?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=5eae81d6c68e4706631e45d0&UK death toll 'could be towards 30,000'&2020-05-03T08:36:32.165Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:89fcb7c5-28e9-432b-bbb9-30ffd412dd9f&pinned_post_asset_id=5eae81d6c68e4706631e45d0&pinned_post_type=share

 

[Coatigan]

I say the brunt because since 2007 ive lost £5k in real terms from my wage, even before this when the world was recovering and execs still getting million pound bonuses and MPs getting rises I along with many others who are now been applauded were been shafted by these happy clappers from parliamnent

So many people have a lost much much more than that. Private sector went from 100% to 0 for many, rather than a 10-20% drop.

I'm trying to avoid making sweeping generalizations, but my issue is the 'bearing the brunt' comment. Might not have been your intention, but makes it sound like the public sector is somehow suffering and carrying everyone else at the expense of the rest
When, i think, the opposite is the case. Perhaps i've taken the wrong suggestion out of it, and what is otherwise a totally readonable and valid post.

 

[Tim of the Oak]

No I'm furloughed how about you?

I started working self employed last Summer so I’ve had zero income for most of the lockdown and won’t get any benefits.

 

[Paul1970]

The uk is the only place that is gonna come out of lockdown with over 600 deaths a day still happening . Too little too late I’m afraid .

 

[The Light Was Yellow Sir]

Is it time to relook at this lockdown and think about just ending it? I ask this because there does seem to be a collective madness overcoming us and blithe acceptance of government statements, not to mention the unending damage we are doing to the economy.
If life is going to be about everyone being much poorer, not speaking to anyone when going out, covering your face so you can’t see anyone anyway, not touching anyone, not going to the pub, sitting in straight lines in restaurants, having every other seat empty in cinemas, or the theatre, not going on holiday and having no sport whilst telling anyone over 70 or people with comorbidities that the only way to ‘live’ is to stay in and not see anyone, then I’m not convinced we are ‘doing the right thing’.

The ‘Ferguson model’, which panicked Trump and Johnson so much, was reused by Uppsala University to highlight the risk to Sweden. It predicted if Sweden ‘did nothing’, by May 1st, there’d be 80000 dead. If they just maintained voluntary social distancing, that number would be 40000. They did the latter and, as of May 1st they’ve had 2700 deaths.

I found this transport usage map interesting, which certainly suggests that people were doing the right thing as soon as social distancing was encouraged and the lockdown didn’t increase the pace of that, at all.

 

[BlueAnorak]

what I genuinely don't understand is where the numbers are relatively small, why the fuck are we not doing proper contact tracing at all? Its the same in Scotland, on the face of it the daily numbers look manageable to trace contacts and quarantine them.

PHE have recruited/repurposed 18,000 to do contact tracing starting in a couple of weeks.
Our national pandemic plan was so fatalistic it didnt even consider this as a major option beyond a week or so of an outbreak.

 

[Paul1970]

The problem with the uk is that we are not strong enough. Shops are opening up without permission police aren’t enforcing social distancing . When you look at lesser nations such as Spain Italy and even Hungary they had a full lockdown and it was enforced but we just let everyone do what they want and this is why we will end up with. The highest death rate apart from America

 

[East Level 2]

Not at all. I don't want anyone to die, old or young. My thoughts are how do we move forward in an amicable way and what the hell am I going to do my my industry is dead for the foreseeable.

It certainly appears aviation is fucked for the foreseeable, but how does this compare to the feelings after 9/11 when similar comments were made?
I know there's a hell of a difference between a virus and a bunch of lunatic hijackers, but there were huge fears for the industry at the time.

 

[Blue Maverick]

So many people have a lost much much more than that. Private sector went from 100% to 0 for many, rather than a 10-20% drop.

I'm trying to avoid making sweeping generalizations, but my issue is the 'bearing the brunt' comment. Might not have been your intention, but makes it sound like the public sector is somehow suffering and carrying everyone else at the expense of the rest
When, i think, the opposite is the case. Perhaps i've taken the wrong suggestion out of it, and what is otherwise a totally readonable and valid post.

the bearing the brunt maybe the wrong term i just meant the failings of the private sector (banking) and the public sector decimated to bail the banks etc and now the tables are effectively turned will be interesting to see in years to come how the public sector and in particular the NHS are treated by those very ministers applauding not giving them pay rises not long ago, tbh that should be in the political forum and i dont want t o get into those arguements they make me angry. Lets just hope we can all safely get through this and you can buy me a beer at the Ethiad soon ;)

 

[Blue Maverick]

This is considerably worse because until there is immunity anyone traveling internationally is going to have to isolate on arrival both ways. So no one is going on a 1 or 2 week international holiday any time soon. As I said the other day the CEO of Lufthansa group believes it will be 2023 before airlines will be able to operate profitably and that will be at much smaller scales.

said to the wife as much it will be at least 2022 before we go away again.

 

[worsleyweb]

Is it time to relook at this lockdown and think about just ending it? I ask this because there does seem to be a collective madness overcoming us and blithe acceptance of government statements, not to mention the unending damage we are doing to the economy.
If life is going to be about everyone being much poorer, not speaking to anyone when going out, covering your face so you can’t see anyone anyway, not touching anyone, not going to the pub, sitting in straight lines in restaurants, having every other seat empty in cinemas, or the theatre, not going on holiday and having no sport whilst telling anyone over 70 or people with comorbidities that the only way to ‘live’ is to stay in and not see anyone, then I’m not convinced we are ‘doing the right thing’.

The ‘Ferguson model’, which panicked Trump and Johnson so much, was reused by Uppsala University to highlight the risk to Sweden. It predicted if Sweden ‘did nothing’, by May 1st, there’d be 80000 dead. If they just maintained voluntary social distancing, that number would be 40000. They did the latter and, as of May 1st they’ve had 2700 deaths.

I found this transport usage map interesting, which certainly suggests that people were doing the right thing as soon as social distancing was encouraged and the lockdown didn’t increase the pace of that, at all.

That’s very interesting.

 

[True_Blue69]

The problem with the uk is that we are not strong enough. Shops are opening up without permission police aren’t enforcing social distancing . When you look at lesser nations such as Spain Italy and even Hungary they had a full lockdown and it was enforced but we just let everyone do what they want and this is why we will end up with. The highest death rate apart from America

Time will tell if it was the correct approach. Full lockdown may keep the numbers down short term, but until a vaccine or remedy is available as soon as they loosen lockdown it will start to spread again and there will be more people who haven't caught it to catch it.

No point in comparing countries at this moment in time as all have different strategies and when we come out of the other side we will know which worked best.

When it is all analysed, deaths caused by lockdown should be taken into account such as the suicides that keep happening by young healthy people.

 

[True_Blue69]

That’s very interesting.

I really do think that should be an option. We have the additional medical capacity and up to 20% have already caught it. The NHS has coped so far and we are now testing on a mass scale. Added to this it's now almost definite you cannot catch it again and summer is on the horizon where similar viruses typically drop off.

The lockdown is going to do more damage than the virus would IMO.

 

[DJBusinesscake]

What i dont understand is this assumption that a vaccine will be 100% be found. And found withing a few months. There isnt a vaccine for the common cold is there? Does the flu even have a vaccine? Is that what the flu jab is? Im sorry, im very thick...

 

[worsleyweb]

What i dont understand is this assumption that a vaccine will be 100% be found. And found withing a few months. There isnt a vaccine for the common cold is there? Does the flu even have a vaccine? Is that what the flu jab is? Im sorry, im very thick...

Experts very confident on a vaccine. Read 80 percent.