COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[worsleyweb]

It has been a real mild winter,u don't know the figures but I would be surprised if the flu season has been bad,trouble is we will never know how many went down as flu when it was covid, think we have to accept we won't have exact figures for either for feb/march

Karen - does todays 429 include care home deaths?

 

[Chippy_boy]

When did we start testing deaths for Covid?

Prior to March Covid deaths could have been going down as Flu/Pneumonia

Without lockdown, the numbers of infections and corresponding number of deaths doubles every 3 or 4 days (nearer 3 than 4).

If we'd had loads of COVID-19 deaths in January, then we'd have had tens of thousands dead from it in February.

Now lets say we didn't notice and thought it was all flu. (Not possible but I'll indulge you). We'd have had 10x that many by early March, at least. We didn't lock down until March 23rd. It is not possible to have had tens of thousands of dead in February or we'd have seen 100,000 dead in March.

So we didn't have 10k+ COVID-19 deaths in Feb. And given that, then we didn't have 100 dead in January either. The maths just does not follow.

 

[route46]

Look, this is not difficult. Without lockdown, the numbers of infections and corresponding number of deaths doubles every 3 or 4 days (nearer 3 than 4).

If we'd had loads of COVID-19 deaths in January, then we'd have had tens of thousands dead from it in February. Now lets say we were a bit careless and didn't notice. We'd have had 10x that many by early March, at least. We didn't lock down until March 23rd. It is not possible to have had tens of thousands of dead in February or we'd have seen 100,000 dead in March. And if we didn't have tens of thousands of dead in February, then we didn't have 100 dead in January either. The maths just does not follow.

Does Viral loads not make a difference to death rate?

 

[worsleyweb]

Without lockdown, the numbers of infections and corresponding number of deaths doubles every 3 or 4 days (nearer 3 than 4).

If we'd had loads of COVID-19 deaths in January, then we'd have had tens of thousands dead from it in February. Now lets say we were a bit careless and didn't notice. We'd have had 10x that many by early March, at least. We didn't lock down until March 23rd. It is not possible to have had tens of thousands of dead in February or we'd have seen 100,000 dead in March. And if we didn't have tens of thousands of dead in February, then we didn't have 100 dead in January either. The maths just does not follow.

You should have said.

 

[kaz7]

Karen - does todays 429 include care home deaths?

Hospitals lovely,we get total number at 5pm

 

[Chippy_boy]

Does Viral loads not make a difference to death rate?

No idea. But it's got nothing to do with it. Viral load is about how much virus you ingest when in close proximity to an infected person. You don't get 2x the viral load if there are 2x as many infected people. You just have 2x the chance of bumping into such a person. (Unless you are a doctor or a nurse perhaps).

Again, why are you (seemingly) desperate to cling to the idea of many COVID-19 deaths very early in the year (or last year even)? It makes no sense and yet people seem to want to jump through all sorts of theoretical hoops to try to justify the idea. When the logical conclusion is to just accept it didn't happen. I am puzzled why you cling to it?

 

[kevin horlocks wand]

Hospitals lovely,we get total number at 5pm

it’s Tuesday so it includes the ONS stats too so normally high

 

[BlueAnorak]

i understand the distancing , totally get you need to maintain distance in case the other person coughs , sneezes or gobs on you . Or hugging and touching.

however i think there are many people who now think that the virus can jump from one person to another So if walking down the pavement and someone is walking towards them and has the virus, That somehow the virus can see them coming and think oh yummy I am going to jump into that person and infect them?

60 seconds is a long time.
6 seconds isn't
One does have to wonder why what's left of the UK clothing industry that hasn't been mobilised by the government to produce gowns etc hasn't started to produce face masks for the public.
It is clear that without them public transport simply cannot be restarted.

 

[kevin horlocks wand]

No idea. But it's got nothing to do with it. Viral load is about how much virus you ingest when in close proximity to an infected person. You don't get 2x the viral load if there are 2x as many infected people. You just have 2x the chance of bumping into such a person. (Unless you are a doctor or a nurse perhaps).

Again, why are you (seemingly) desperate to cling to the idea of many COVID-19 deaths very early in the year (or last year even)? It makes no sense and yet people seem to want to jump through all sorts of theoretical hoops to try to justify the idea. When the logical conclusion is to just accept it didn't happen. I am puzzled why you cling to it?

people cling to it because they had an extreme cough and was ill in early January as I did, it was going around then. Never had a cough like it

Now you may be right and probably are , it could be a cough , cold, flu or whatever.

however people cling on to it I guess because they want to convince themselves that they have had it , survived And now have immunity.

 

[BlueAnorak]

Patrick Vallance to the select committee today

It would have been "beneficial" to have ramped up Covid-19 testing quicker, the UK's chief scientific adviser has told MPs assessing the coronavirus response and use what tests we had for those who were very ill.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52545662


A further 366 people with coronavirus died in English hospitals, a further 44 patients have died with coronavirus in Scotland and 26 more people have died in Wales

Well yes but we simply didn't have the manufacturing capacity to go much past 8,000 tests a day so we had to retrench somewhat and only test those who were I'll enough or possibly were ill enough to be admitted to hospital.

 

[BlueAnorak]

When did we start testing deaths for Covid?

Prior to March Covid deaths could have been going down as Flu/Pneumonia

Well yes, but they weren't more than average for the time of year. In fact they were slightly less.

 

[route46]

No idea. But it's got nothing to do with it. Viral load is about how much virus you ingest when in close proximity to an infected person. You don't get 2x the viral load if there are 2x as many infected people. You just have 2x the chance of bumping into such a person. (Unless you are a doctor or a nurse perhaps).

Again, why are you (seemingly) desperate to cling to the idea of many COVID-19 deaths very early in the year (or last year even)? It makes no sense and yet people seem to want to jump through all sorts of theoretical hoops to try to justify the idea. When the logical conclusion is to just accept it didn't happen. I am puzzled why you cling to it?

Surely the more people infected the more viral load u are likely to ingest??

 

[hgblue]

people cling to it because they had an extreme cough and was ill in early January as I did, it was going around then. Never had a cough like it

Now you may be right and probably are , it could be a cough , cold, flu or whatever.

however people cling on to it I guess because they want to convince themselves that they have had it , survived And now have immunity.

Not me. It seems someone died of Covid in December in France. He had not been abroad so had been infected by someone else. This means Covid was in France in early December. I’m just trying to understand how this can be. Did this virus fail to spread for some reason? Seems unlikely because it’s spread like wildfire everywhere else. I’m just interested to hear an explanation for this that makes sense.

 

[BlueAnorak]

Not me. It seems someone died of Covid in December in France. He had not been abroad so had been infected by someone else. This means Covid was in France in early December. I’m just trying to understand how this can be. Did this virus fail to spread for some reason? Seems unlikely because it’s spread like wildfire everywhere else. I’m just interested to hear an explanation for this that makes sense.

I'll go for contamination of samples as the most likely cause. COVID-19 cases would be through the roof in mid January in France if it their was a COVID-19 case in France in mid December.

 

[kaz7]

it’s Tuesday so it includes the ONS stats too so normally high

Those figures are hosp only,ONS are seperate

Britain's hospital death toll rose to 24,780 after 436 fatalities were reported in 24 hours.

England reported 366 new deaths, Scotland had 44 and Wales recorded 26 - taking its toll past 1,000 - as the UK entered the seventh week of its lockdown

 

[purplenose]

people cling to it because they had an extreme cough and was ill in early January as I did, it was going around then. Never had a cough like it

Now you may be right and probably are , it could be a cough , cold, flu or whatever.

however people cling on to it I guess because they want to convince themselves that they have had it , survived And now have immunity.

Its a strange one, I thought I may have had it early Feb, from Malaga maybe. At first it was dismissed by NHS111 but a few weeks ago I sawa doctor for a clinical trial who on hearing what had gone on said he would certainly not rule out the possibility that what I had was Covid.

I have not given immunity a second thought myself as I honestly don't know if I had it or not. Come the day we are tested for antibodies I would not be unduly surprised if it turned out I have had it, but nor will I if it is negative. I suppose I would be pleased to have had it and not had it badly should it prove you are then immune, who would'nt be.

I can say my views or thoughts on it having been around for a little bit longer in Europe than the powers that be currently admit are not influenced by my own illness whatever it was to any great extent, but the symptoms I had and the sequence of them certainly almost mirror that of Covid.

 

[route46]

Well yes, but they weren't more than average for the time of year. In fact they were slightly less.

Not me. It seems someone died of Covid in December in France. He had not been abroad so had been infected by someone else. This means Covid was in France in early December. I’m just trying to understand how this can be. Did this virus fail to spread for some reason? Seems unlikely because it’s spread like wildfire everywhere else. I’m just interested to hear an explanation for this that makes sense.

Don't think he died

 

[kevin horlocks wand]

Those figures are hosp only,ONS are seperate

Britain's hospital death toll rose to 24,780 after 436 fatalities were reported in 24 hours.

England reported 366 new deaths, Scotland had 44 and Wales recorded 26 - taking its toll past 1,000 - as the UK entered the seventh week of its lockdown

yep I know but the ons stats are announced on a Tuesday I thought as well

 

[sir baconface]

Just watched a news report on this which concluded with 'Aer Lingus are reviewing their policies'.

The fact that we have to rely on an airline to safeguard the public might help explain why we've got one of the worst death tolls in the world.

Well it doesn’t look like anyone - Aer Lingus or anyone else - gives a flying fcuk on the evidence of that photo. WTF are they all doing? And why?

 

[Chippy_boy]

Surely the more people infected the more viral load u are likely to ingest??

Nope.

Still clinging?