COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[Vic]

Interesting.
I've been reading about T-Cell immunity in younger people. Fascinating science.
Also, The human corona viral infection in Germany at the back end of 2019 probably happened here too and is probably the reason why lots of people think they had SARS2 here at Christmas.
Switzerland opening primary schools will show whether they can be opened in the UK without much impact on viral spread.

An awful lot of "we don't know" and "it depends" and (conclusion) we will not know the true IFR until the pandemic is over (and not "over" until there's a vaccine).

I'd point to the test of the carnival town in Germany (which I posted about many weeks ago) was following WHO guidelines, which we did nothing about.

The other awful conclusion was that lockdown means we don't know which are the measures that do most good - banning mass gatherings, public transport, or the hygiene measures. At least he's asking stuff I've been asking - like would it be better (or even possible) to gain immunity by being exposed to a low viral dose (with limited symptoms)? I suspect these questions have always been out there in the scientific world but our media aren't good at those sorts of questions.

In the end, I'm still thinking of the African president (can't recall who) who said we can rebuild an economy but we can't bring people back from the dead (even allowing for the deaths from economic collapse).

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

Dont know if already posted by anyone else but it looks like furlough pay will be reduced soon.
That will force many people back into work to soon

Assuming the work is there? Sadly I think many will simply be made redundant.

 

[hgblue]

Interesting.
I've been reading about T-Cell immunity in younger people. Fascinating science.
Also, The human corona viral infection in Germany at the back end of 2019 probably happened here too and is probably the reason why lots of people think they had SARS2 here at Christmas.
Switzerland opening primary schools will show whether they can be opened in the UK without much impact on viral spread.

Sweden never closed it’s schools, in fact they never went into lockdown and their infection rates and deaths are falling. Could be heading for herd immunity soon and when that happens this crisis is over there.

 

[Rammy Blue]

Sweden never closed it’s schools, in fact they never went into lockdown and their infection rates and deaths are falling. Could be heading for herd immunity soon and when that happens this crisis is over there.

Yep. Spoke to my bro last night in Stockholm - he was in the gym, after having had a round of golf in the afternoon, having been at work cutting hair in the morning, lol.

All this whilst having a daughter that has had covid in the last couple of weeks.

 

[grunge]

WTF are you going on about??? And the "insult" is just an observation. You are being an idiot, or are an idiot. I am assume the former, but I really don't know.

I keep telling you that we had a 2 or 3 week advantage over Italy. Do you REALLY want evidence for that? REALLY? Serious question.

I mean honestly, it's not in debate, it's universally accepted.

Random data:

March 7th. Italy, total deaths 233. Uk total deaths 1.
March 21st (2 weeks later) Uk, 250 deaths. Italy, 4,825

I don't know why I am even indulging you on this. It's ludicrous we are even debating it.

Evidence from WorldMeter + ONS.

Note how Italy's deaths started to spike around the 6th March. Uk started around 26th March. roughly 3 weeks later.

Edit: Boris was shaking hands in hospitals a few days before Italy went on lockdown.

 

[Bazzmand Show]

Sweden never closed it’s schools, in fact they never went into lockdown and their infection rates and deaths are falling. Could be heading for herd immunity soon and when that happens this crisis is over there.

That's slight hyperbole there buddy, the estimation is that around 25% of the population in Stockholm has got some antibodies - and even then it's patchy. We don't know what percentage is needed for herd immunity, maybe has high as 80%.

A lot of hype has been made of Sweden's approach, but it's worth doing some deeper reading on it.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/04/opinion/coronavirus-sweden-herd-immunity.html

 

[Marvin]

But it would have been incorrect to say that.

And you are being an idiot. Are you arguing that people WERE dying in droves in Manchester when they were doing in their hundreds in Lombardy? If yes, then you are an idiot. If no, then you are being idiotic in questioning my claim. Either way...

Fact is we had a 2 or 3 week advanced warning compared to Italy and we have not leveraged it to any measureable advantage. Only an idiot would argue otherwise.

It depends what the 'advantage' is.

You can't compare countries death/capita now because different countries have different strategies to cope with the epidemic. Many countries are pursuing policies that will lead to higher initial infection and death because it confers immunity in the knowledge that they should not be hit by a 2nd wave, or not so badly. For example, I read this morning that the Czech republic which has had less than 250 deaths has virtually no immunity (their antibody census reveals immunity at 4-5%).

The most likely scenario now is that just like any 'flu epidemic the epidemic fades significantly over the Summer months but what do you think will be the death rate in the UK in any second wave? If there is a 2nd wave then I am certain that immunity then becomes a factor.

The UK has opted for a more traditional strategy of dealing with an epidemic. I think Germany and the UK watched South Korea and Lombardy and Germany reeled in horror and copied South Korea whilst the UK gritted its teeth and decided to ratchet up social distancing but is still essentially following a strategy factoring in immunity. We simply don't yet know which route is right though everyone will have an opinion. You could take the view that no 'strategy' is right. It just reflects a different level of conservatism in regards to the success of science (vaccine, testing, therapeutics).

What should happen is that SAGE should be able to react to developments and evolve their strategy. We all know for certain that at he outset the UK wanted to build herd immunity. The consensus is that this was dropped but I don't think it has been entirely dropped. If you listen to virologists they talk about how the UK should be cycling the social distancing measures on an off to build immunity.

We all hope that there is a vaccine in September. If there isn't, then by then we'll be tired and sad but the statistics will begin to look very different.

 

[blueish swede]

Sweden never closed it’s schools, in fact they never went into lockdown and their infection rates and deaths are falling. Could be heading for herd immunity soon and when that happens this crisis is over there.

I read yesterday the "R" number is down in the UK and Sweden. UK was 0.8 +/- 0.2. Sweden was 0.85 +/- 0.02.
So slightly higher but with a smaller error.
TPTB say there are signs of herd immunity in parts of Stockholm, but still a long way to go.
I'll try and find the link.

 

[sir baconface]

Dont know if already posted by anyone else but it looks like furlough pay will be reduced soon.
That will force many people back into work to soon

The current furlough scheme extends to the end of June so presumably you’re talking July?

It will have to be rolled back at some stage. That, in tandem with easy availability and strict rules on face wear/masks, are the obvious tactics to lubricate a return to work.

 

[Deleted member 77198]

Deary fucking me...we're being guided by bellends.

Nothing surprises me. There seems to be some sort of mental disorder when it comes to people with top responsibility. It’s like they think they’re untouchable and can do what they want.

 

[sir baconface]

Assuming the work is there? Sadly I think many will simply be made redundant.

Sadly, you are right. For many, the scheme will have achieved the desired effect of nursing jobs through an intensely difficult period. For many others, businesses have died in the meantime and it has simply delayed redundancy.

 

[SWP's back]

I blame bailing out the banks in 2008 - this led directly to the Conservative austerity for 10 years after ousting Labour (who did the deal with banks).

They bailed out anyone with savings.

 

[BLUEMATT23]

Latest figures suggest only 332 under 45 have died in this country from CV19
Is it therefore right to keep them from going back to work?, seems very harsh to me that they are being held back whilst the economy regresses.

 

[Marvin]

That's slight hyperbole there buddy, the estimation is that around 25% of the population in Stockholm has got some antibodies - and even then it's patchy. We don't know what percentage is needed for herd immunity, maybe has high as 80%.

A lot of hype has been made of Sweden's approach, but it's worth doing some deeper reading on it.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/04/opinion/coronavirus-sweden-herd-immunity.html

The truth is there's a spectrum of approaches with countries on different ends of that spectrum. You can compare Sweden's per capita death with its Scandinavian counterparts and view it as disastrous but what if there's a 2nd wave which to be honest we should expect.

I was shocked by the herd immunity argument. It is is the default argument of many biological scientists. When Governments say they are taking scientific advice, I believe them. Although I think thereis no consensus. The disappointing thing from my point of view is that the underlying rationale is hidden and not up for public discussion. Most people in the UK assume that the UK is doing absolutely everything we can to stop viral transmission and would be shocked to learn that some virologists advocate cycling transmission through the Summer to fend off a 2nd peak

 

[hgblue]

Latest figures suggest only 332 under 45 have died in this country from CV19
Is it therefore right to keep them from going back to work?, seems very harsh to me that they are being held back whilst the economy regresses.

How many had other health issues so would have to be shielded anyway? How many were frontline health workers who were maybe exposed to a higher viral load?

 

[Chippy_boy]

It depends what the 'advantage' is.

You can't compare countries death/capita now because different countries have different strategies to cope with the epidemic. Many countries are pursuing policies that will lead to higher initial infection and death because it confers immunity in the knowledge that they should not be hit by a 2nd wave, or not so badly. For example, I read this morning that the Czech republic which has had less than 250 deaths has virtually no immunity (their antibody census reveals immunity at 4-5%).

The most likely scenario now is that just like any 'flu epidemic the epidemic fades significantly over the Summer months but what do you think will be the death rate in the UK in any second wave? If there is a 2nd wave then I am certain that immunity then becomes a factor.

The UK has opted for a more traditional strategy of dealing with an epidemic. I think Germany and the UK watched South Korea and Lombardy and Germany reeled in horror and copied South Korea whilst the UK gritted its teeth and decided to ratchet up social distancing but is still essentially following a strategy factoring in immunity. We simply don't yet know which route is right though everyone will have an opinion. You could take the view that no 'strategy' is right. It just reflects a different level of conservatism in regards to the success of science (vaccine, testing, therapeutics).

What should happen is that SAGE should be able to react to developments and evolve their strategy. We all know for certain that at he outset the UK wanted to build herd immunity. The consensus is that this was dropped but I don't think it has been entirely dropped. If you listen to virologists they talk about how the UK should be cycling the social distancing measures on an off to build immunity.

We all hope that there is a vaccine in September. If there isn't, then by then we'll be tired and sad but the statistics will begin to look very different.

Lots of fair comment in there.

However, let's go back to where this little sub-debate started. I responded to a suggestion that some people were peddling the idea that we had done marvellously. My comment was "I think by most judgements we have not done well." If we cannot yet conclude that we have done badly, then by the same token we cannot conclude that we have done well either.

My personal view remains that thinking that herd immunity in any form can be any kind of solution and that it should in any way drive our thinking and strategy, is completely bonkers. It makes no sense on many, many levels. Perhaps the first and most profound is that we really have no agreement the levels of immunity which those previously infected might have. That pulls the rug out from under the strategy, right from the start. Potentially we allow millions of additional, preventable infections and the corresponding thousands or tens of thousands of additional, preventable deaths... for no benefit whatsoever.

And even if we do have a degree of immunity after infection, is it conclusive that we have roughly 5x the levels of infection across the UK compared to Germany and that as a nation as a whole, we are now more immune than they are? (We have 4x the numbers of dead, in a population only 80% of their size). Because if we do not, then our approach - vs theirs - has failed. I do not know the answer to that and I am not sure anyone really does yet.

EDIT: And sorry I forgot your opening line, "It depends what the advantage is". The advantage we had was that we could see how things were unfolding in Italy and had time to take actions to prevent the same from unfolding here.

 

[Deleted member 77198]

No evidence then, just another insult.

The evidence is all there in the graphs when the dates of deaths from COVID started to appear and progress.

Italy’s first day of over 100 deaths was 10th March; here ours was 24th March.

We literally had a two week head start on Italy.

 

[hgblue]

The truth is there's a spectrum of approaches with countries on different ends of that spectrum. You can compare Sweden's per capita death with its Scandinavian counterparts and view it as disastrous but what if there's a 2nd wave which to be honest we should expect.

I was shocked by the herd immunity argument. It is is the default argument of many biological scientists. When Governments say they are taking scientific advice, I believe them. Although I think thereis no consensus. The disappointing thing from my point of view is that the underlying rationale is hidden and not up for public discussion. Most people in the UK assume that the UK is doing absolutely everything we can to stop viral transmission and would be shocked to learn that some virologists advocate cycling transmission through the Summer to fend off a 2nd peak

The irony of course being that herd immunity is the best way to eradicate the virus in the absence of a treatment or vaccine, and therefore the best way to protect against a second wave and the vulnerable. It also avoids all the excess deaths that are coming due to the recession caused by the lockdown.

 

[sir baconface]

Latest figures suggest only 332 under 45 have died in this country from CV19
Is it therefore right to keep them from going back to work?, seems very harsh to me that they are being held back whilst the economy regresses.

If they didn’t transmit the virus, I’d be inclined to agree.

 

[AlgarveBlu]

In the end, I'm still thinking of the African president (can't recall who) who said we can rebuild an economy but we can't bring people back from the dead (even allowing for the deaths from economic collapse).

Robert Mugabe's last words