May well be right, but as was posted earlier, there was an article from BBC showing that pretty much the whole of Western Europe has relaxed their lockdowns as of today, and tbh we have probably relaxed ours the least in comparison. We will see.I've been thinking about Boris' announcement yesterday and you know I am seriously wondering if the government is fully expecting these relaxations to fail?
Of course i am no expert and may well be wrong, but it seems obvious to me that we are perilously close to an R of 1 and that therefore any increase in activity which involves more people mingling (such as going to work!) will push it over 1. If R was significantly lower than 1, surely you'd see death rates falling dramatically (on average) every day, but they are not. Yes they are falling, but not dramatically. Our death rates have halved over the last 4 weeks, but that is not a precipitous drop. In fact the 7-day moving average deaths rates are falling only by around 21% - 22% per week. That equates to an R of around 0.97!
I am convinced the reason for the relaxations - modest though they are - are driven by political pressure to get the economy moving again to the greatest degree possible, as soon as possible. Not by any confidence that the virus is sufficiently under control that we can ease off.
And I am also convinced they we will start to see a reversal in the previously declining figures and infection and death rates start to pick up again. I think a return to lock down is inevitable, and I am wondering if the government knows this, and that we are simply going through this step so it can say to those pushing for an early return to work "see - we told you it was too early". That would IMO fit with Boris' very cautious language yesterday where he made it very plain that these relaxations were conditional upon the figures remaining stable or declining and any increases will mean we are back in lockdown again.
Cornflakes you might as well eat the cardboard.
Grrrrreat.I will wait until the official guidance at 2pm before making a final decision.
Can only speak for Spain here. But like most people for 7 weeks I left the house maximum twice a week for shopping. The streets were empty. This worked at least as far as getting the initially very high numbers down.May well be right, but as was posted earlier, there was an article from BBC showing that pretty much the whole of Western Europe has relaxed their lockdowns as of today, and tbh we have probably relaxed ours the least in comparison. We will see.
To balance that out though your lockdown was already more relaxed than many in Western Europe. You were also about 2 weeks behind the likes of Spain and Italy so would make sense that those who’ve had serious restrictions before you would start to ease before you.May well be right, but as was posted earlier, there was an article from BBC showing that pretty much the whole of Western Europe has relaxed their lockdowns as of today, and tbh we have probably relaxed ours the least in comparison. We will see.
Death rates depend on what happened 3 weeks ago.I've been thinking about Boris' announcement yesterday and you know I am seriously wondering if the government is fully expecting these relaxations to fail?
Of course i am no expert and may well be wrong, but it seems obvious to me that we are perilously close to an R of 1 and that therefore any increase in activity which involves more people mingling (such as going to work!) will push it over 1. If R was significantly lower than 1, surely you'd see death rates falling dramatically (on average) every day, but they are not. Yes they are falling, but not dramatically. Our death rates have halved over the last 4 weeks, but that is not a precipitous drop. In fact the 7-day moving average deaths rates are falling only by around 21% - 22% per week. That equates to an R of around 0.97! (Of course the maths is a lot more complicated because of delays between infections and death rates etc, but it's a reasonable estimate.)
I am convinced the reason for the relaxations - modest though they are - are driven by political pressure to get the economy moving again to the greatest degree possible, as soon as possible. Not by any confidence that the virus is sufficiently under control that we can ease off.
And I am also convinced they we will start to see a reversal in the previously declining figures and infection and death rates start to pick up again. I think a return to lock down is inevitable, and I am wondering if the government knows this, and that we are simply going through this step so it can say to those pushing for an early return to work "see - we told you it was too early". That would IMO fit with Boris' very cautious language yesterday where he made it very plain that these relaxations were conditional upon the figures remaining stable or declining and any increases will mean we are back in lockdown again.
We are mass testing.
What is successful? The virus is still out there, no vaccine or tablets available to make sure you don't fall ill. Some countries have made the initial wave smaller but it just means they'll have many short waves. Be interesting to see how it all pans out, I predict no vaccine.
it’s a tricky one. I still don’t understand the logic if junior school kids going into school ahead of senior school kids.
senior school kids have more important learning to do and Generally can follow social distancing rules better I would expect.