COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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ayrshire_blue said:



Saw this chart this morning and it gave me a bit of a fright. What's our thoughts on this? A reality or an unlikely scenario? It paints a scary picture.
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Im no expert, but i would imagine global conditions just after world war 1 were pretty extreme and social disatncing, testing and any quality of living conditions were pretty non existent at that time. Almost the perfect storm for it.
 
ayrshire_blue said:



Saw this chart this morning and it gave me a bit of a fright. What's our thoughts on this? A reality or an unlikely scenario? It paints a scary picture.
Click to expand...


As SARS-CoV-2 isn't affected much by higher natural summer UV light levels, like flu is, I'm not sure it will play out anything like 1918-1920 for Spanish Flu.
We artificially stopped the virus infecting 80% of the population by locking down and from here on in will be playing whack-a-mole chasing it down and eliminating local outbreaks.
Though transmission is higher in enclosed spaces and we are likely to be in enclosed spaces more in the autumn and winter, 2nd and subsequent spikes are only really likely if the virus mutates to a form that is more infectious.
Life won't return to anything like normality though till a vaccine is available to give us herd immunity.
 
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Nightmare Walking said:
Thats my view as well. You just can't compare what happened 100 years ago to what is happening today, it is a totally different set of circumstances.
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It is exactly what will happen.
Once the govt have convinced everyone that they can no longer protect the public at the expense of the economy wave 2 will come along. Without a subsequent total lockdown, it’ll be far worse than the current wave.
 
ayrshire_blue said:



Saw this chart this morning and it gave me a bit of a fright. What's our thoughts on this? A reality or an unlikely scenario? It paints a scary picture.
Click to expand...


2nd/3rd waves are a real possibility however it wont look like that specifically, that was flu which is seasonal and travel was a lot slower back then so the spread was a lot slower. so its an impossible comparison.

There are a lot of reports that this wont be effected seasonally ( very much ) so the only way we will have a dip in cases is through containment method such as lockdowns, a vaccine or until so many people have had it it has no where to spread so naturally fades away ( natural Herd immunity ).

So right now ( the same as everywhere else ). we open up and it will spread. the more we open up the more it will spread.
 
BlueAnorak said:
Let's be honest, there's a big fucking bill coming our way that has to be paid for stopping economic activity to fight the virus so to minimise the bill economies have to start opening up.
It's a balancing act of risk between opening up and letting the virus go again so I'd rather wait a week or so to open up - i.e. till the track-and-trace app is working and the track-and-trace teams are deployed. But we are where we are.
Personally I think the equivalent of war bonds with guaranteed returns over 5-20 years is the way to pay for it. Savings give people fuck all return so lots of people will buy them. Additional money to that lost should be borrowed to boost UK investment and grow the economy to pay the bond bill's or we really will be fucked.
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Too risky, people may not buy them.
I see a wealth tax on all assets coming, or abolishing capital gains tax relief on principle private residences.
 
Eds said:
I have heard the phrase ‘Use your common sense’ quite a bit these past couple of days. Pity that a huge number of this country lack this. New guidelines are simple to follow if you read and listen to what has been said. Is there a correlation between those people on furlough who are being paid whilst flouting the rules and the fact that furlough payments may be reduced and these people might have to work? I understand that everyone has their own specific lifestyle but we are talking about guidelines for 66m people and there will always be anomalies. Media has been banging on about easing lockdown and now they are shit stirring saying it’s confusing when it’s not unless you are being a total arse or if you have a shoe size larger than your IQ
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What fun it is to think up the most inane, obtuse question and then laugh like a drain when it catches the government out.

“No can do” suits so many people.

Good job the frontline health workers didn’t spend time conjuring up obstacles.
 
Manc in London said:
Which public sector staff are not working?
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some teachers, some bin men, some general maintenance people, some council staff. Some civil servants . Some drivers. I don’t know their names.

you get the picture , many here are on a much reduced service, up here they have reduced services that cannot provide their services safely eg social distancing . In London it might be different,
 
BlueAnorak said:
As SARS-CoV-2 isn't affected much by higher natural summer UV light levels, like flu is, I'm not sure 1918-1920 will play out anything like Spanish Flu.
We artificially stopped the virus infecting 80% of the population by locking down and from here on in will be playing whack-a-mole chasing it down and eliminating local outbreaks.
Though transmission is higher in enclosed spaces and we are likely to be in enclosed spaces more in the autumn and winter, 2nd and subsequent spikes are only really likely if the virus mutates to a form that is more infectious.
Life won't return to anything like normality though till a vaccine is available to give us herd immunity.
Click to expand...

A lot of good replies to this and I guess this makes sense. Cheers. I wasn't posting for the sake of fear mongering btw. I saw the graph by chance when browsing twitter this morning and, like probably a significant number of the population on seeing something like that, it put a bit of fear in me at the same time as doubting that's entirely how it's likely to play out. It's a bit reassuring even reading the replies on somewhere like here to learn that's an unlikely scenario for a few different reasons.
 
sir baconface said:
What fun it is to think up the most inane, obtuse question and then laugh like a drain when it catches the government out.

“No can do” suits so many people.

Good job the frontline health workers didn’t spend time conjuring up obstacles.
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it pisses me off people going mad at the government at asking them to go back to work as if somehow they are so special when millions have carried on working throughout this crisis

care workers
Nhs workers
Supermarket staff
Journalists
Politicians
Scientists
Some Teaching staff
Bus drivers
Tube drivers
Delivery drivers
Food producers
The armed forces
The entire logistics process that gets food into your cupboards each day.

many of whom cannot work from home. You cannot drive a bus or train from your study waiting for your sourdough loaf to cook.
 
kevin horlocks wand said:
it pisses me off people going mad at the government at asking them to go back to work as if somehow they are so special when millions have carried on working throughout this crisis

care workers
Nhs workers
Supermarket staff
Journalists
Politicians
Scientists
Some Teaching staff
Bus drivers
Tube drivers
Delivery drivers
Food producers
The armed forces
The entire logistics process that gets food into your cupboards each day.

many of whom cannot work from home. You cannot drive a bus or train from your study waiting for your sourdough loaf to cook.
Click to expand...
Absolutely spot on
 
BlueAnorak said:
Let's be honest, there's a big fucking bill coming our way that has to be paid for stopping economic activity to fight the virus so to minimise the bill economies have to start opening up.
It's a balancing act of risk between opening up and letting the virus go again so I'd rather wait a week or so to open up - i.e. till the track-and-trace app is working and the track-and-trace teams are deployed. But we are where we are.
Personally I think the equivalent of war bonds with guaranteed returns over 5-20 years is the way to pay for it. Savings give people fuck all return so lots of people will buy them. Additional money to that lost should be borrowed to boost UK investment and grow the economy to pay the bond bill's or we really will be fucked.
Click to expand...

And when you then look at Austrailia in comparison with us. there is no doubting it will spread there but there is far less of it there to spread

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/...million-7-day-average?country=AUS+ITA+ESP+GBR
 
Seeing as there seems to be a lot of Aus vs Us conversations going on, this is the reason Aus didn't close schools etc etc.

ukVsAus.png
 
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