COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[johnnytapia]

I think we need to see the level of the virus by June before deciding if they should go back or not. If it's quite a bit lower than now, then I can't really see the problem in them going back, just as they are starting to do in many other countries. If the infection rate is still quite high, then delay their return for a few weeks.

Absolutely - follow the science. Comparisons with other countries are difficult. Czech Republic, they're open. And Czech Republic has had 295 deaths in total. We had more than that in a single day yesterday.

 

[PragueBlue]

I'll be interested to see what the "excess deaths" figure is at the end of 2020.

In 2018, the average number of monthly deaths was 44,655. In January 2018 the "excess deaths" were 15, 377, in February 4,213 and, in March 8,266. That's 27,856 "excess deaths" in 3 months.

It will be good to see the figures to get a sense of proportion at the end of all this.

I suspect they will be lower than normal in the 2nd half of the year (barring a major 2nd peak) as quite a number of those who have died would have been elderly/sick who may well have died one the next weeks/months even without the virus.

 

[PragueBlue]

Absolutely - follow the science. Comparisons with other countries are difficult. Czech Republic, they're open. And Czech Republic has had 295 deaths in total. We had more than that in a single day yesterday.

I think they have started going back in other countries too (I was reading about it but can't remember where though). Perhaps we need to base such decisions on the level of positive cases (not deaths), rather than fixed dates.

 

[johnnytapia]

My wife is one month away from her due date.

The head teacher has emailed her saying she needs a medical note If she does not want to return from June.

Much unneeded stress.

Quote the DfE guidance issued 14th May(my bold):
Clinically vulnerable individuals who are at higher risk of severe illness (for example, people with some pre-existing conditions as set out in the staying at home and away from others (social distancing) guidance) have been advised to take extra care in observing social distancing and should work from home where possible. This includes pregnant women. Education and childcare settings should endeavour to support this, for example by asking staff to support remote education, carry out lesson planning or other roles which can be done from home.

 

[johnnytapia]

Teachers are saving our lives? As that is who I was referring to.

Plank.

Teaching the children of nurses, doctors, construction workers, shop workers. So yep, saving lives. I recognise that requires an understanding of how things can happen indirectly and may be a step too far for you to comprehend, so my apologies in advance if that causes you to inadvertently scratch your head more than the government currently recommends.

 

[johnnytapia]

Very few children get I'll. It is only teachers who may get ill. Those who have underlying health conditions should be removed from the front line.

Ah, it's "only" the teachers. The mask has well and truly slipped.

 

[Fame Monster]

All excess deaths is only around 47k at the moment in the UK It may well reach higher levels but it certainly isn't 60k at the moment.
Its announced covid deaths (34k) +
Non covid excess deaths reported by ONS to May 1 (11k) +
Non covid excess deaths from May 1 (2k max).

Afraid not, mate. The ONS have reported over 51,000 deaths already, the 60,000 deaths is a projection by Chris Giles of the FT, who has been pretty spot on so far with his forecasting.

 

[johnnytapia]

They had someone from the association of teaching leaders or something like that on the radio today.

Said that they had been speaking to government scientific advisors.

Hasn't satisfied all their concerns but they'll keep the dialogue going.

ACSL - might as well be a government spokesman. Lickspittle.

 

[johnnytapia]

Amazing how other countries can return kids to school for their education and some have not shut down at all but it’s impossible in the U.K.

Amazing how they've had tens of thousands fewer deaths and hundreds of thousands fewer positives, which has allowed them to do that. Anyone would think we were slow to lockdown.

 

[Gelsons Dad]

 

[johnnytapia]

A hospital is not a control!ed enviroment? Ruined your arguement there

It's too easy isn't it Karen? Like playing chess with a two year old.

 

[Healdplace]

So the last sequence of deaths recorded ON the day from the Friday reported back to 17 April run 150, 105, 75, 47 & 39. And all daily totals back to May 8 still sub 200 (just!) even with a weeks add ons.

That looks a hopeful trend.

 

[johnnytapia]

Salary. Working time.

The usual suspects, but that’s not a debate for this thread.

I can get you an application to train to be a teacher if you think the pay and hours are great. Drop me a PM any time.

 

[Rammy Blue]

Slowly but surely, definitely heading in the correct direction.

 

[johnnytapia]

Found the paper.
link

In GD we trust. The uber statsman (and yes, I know there's an umlaut on uber).

 

[BlueAnorak]

Afraid not, mate. The ONS have reported over 51,000 deaths already, the 60,000 deaths is a projection by Chris Giles of the FT, who has been pretty spot on so far with his forecasting.

Ah yes I forgot ONS doesn't report for Scotland and NI. It's still only 51k though not 60k yet.
I would expect it to be more like 70k by the end of the year with additional people dying from not going to hospital for operations heart attacks, strokes, organ failure, cancer etc. And that's excluding a 2nd Covid-19 spike.

 

[johnnytapia]

I think they have started going back in other countries too (I was reading about it but can't remember where though). Perhaps we need to base such decisions on the level of positive cases (not deaths), rather than fixed dates.

Think too it needs to be localised, ie, where there's a high R rate, tread very carefully (then wash your shoes).

 

[BlueHammer85]

Quote the DfE guidance issued 14th May(my bold):
Clinically vulnerable individuals who are at higher risk of severe illness (for example, people with some pre-existing conditions as set out in the staying at home and away from others (social distancing) guidance) have been advised to take extra care in observing social distancing and should work from home where possible. This includes pregnant women. Education and childcare settings should endeavour to support this, for example by asking staff to support remote education, carry out lesson planning or other roles which can be done from home.

thanks mate.

 

[cleavers]

I'm staying in mate. Would rather live long term than have a trip to the coast. Stay in, get a take away and watch some German football.

I live in an appartment block with a very good view of other entrances, having witnessed many take away deliveries, I won't be having any take aways, we've witnessed all sorts of poor behaviour from the delivery drivers.

 

[moomba]

ACSL - might as well be a government spokesman. Lickspittle.

Seemed to be taking a reasonable approach to it. Not for it or against it, but continuing dialogue.