COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[Bill]

I can't believe what a bumbling idiot he sounds. Is that Cummings on his right prompting him or is he out for his daily drive?

wrong forum.

 

[St.Pauli support]

If it’s the figure I’m thinking then it includes all that have tested positive from the beginning including the recovered and those that have died so when it peters out it will stop rising, but the number / 100,000 that have had it will still remain. The new infection number will drop as it peters out.

In Germany these "incidence" figures are only new cases per 100,000, to compare new infections in different regions in order to react early.
As daily incidences are too variable RKI now looks at 7-day-incidence, a moving average as known from stock markets (38 or 200 days).

 

[BlueAnorak]

I thought that the number of infections would drop as the virus peters out.

It is
It was 2500 per day a week a go
3250 a day the week before that,
4000 the week before that.

 

[the-ecstacy-of-eight]

So the prediction by Neil Ferguson of 500k dying wasn't over egged? Even he changed his mind a few days later.

It is serious, no doubting that. But is it serious enough to devastate the country for years to come, massively impact children's well-being and education and lead to countless deaths from suicide, cancer etc? Clearly any pandemic is a shite situation and whichever route you take it's going to have a huge impact on people. Looking at this particular virus it's clear that we have handled it wrong. Those who are fit and healthy shouldn't have been locked down and those who are elderly or have serious medical conditions should have been protected better.

Your final point about it killing a good chunk of those who catch it is garbage unless you are counting 0.5% or whatever it turns out to be as a big chunk.

You can't look at statistical data AFTER a population lockdown and extrapolate with hindsight there was no need for a lockdown, because the statistical data has been skewed BECAUSE of the population lockdown.

Oh, and whilst I'm at it, please down regurgitate yearly statistical averages and compare them to quarterly statistics.

If you do these (and other) things, well, you just look kinda stupid. IMO

 

[Manc Born & Bred]

Rate of infection has crept up again in Manchester: (was 244, then 276, then 280, now 283 per 100,000 habitants).
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/#category=ltlas&map=rate

Infections dropping nationally yet Manchester is on the increase, however slight. Not good news and would be great to understand why.

 

[Tim of the Oak]

 

[blueish swede]

You have more chance of being hit by lightening (49 per year in the UK) than to doe of covid if you are under 40 (33 cases)

Covid has only been around for 10 weeks so that would equate to 5 10 people hit by lightning and 33 dead from Covid = 6.6 3.3 times higher

253 healthy under 60 year old have died of covid, 400 die through drowning a year

Again 40 80 dead under the same time frame as Covid = 6.3 3.15 times higher.

Taking into account all covid 19 deaths it is still less 2018 excess winter deaths which was counted as a bad influenza winter

So Covid-19, in a society with all the restrictions imposed for the last 10 weeks, produces a slightly lower death toll than a bad influenza year, where no restrictions were imposed at all.

And you extrapolate this data to mean Covid-19 isn't that bad?

Edited: Thanks to @the-ecstacy-of-eight for the fact checking!

 

[twosips]

Covid has only been around for 10 weeks so that would equate to 5 people hit by lightning and 33 dead from Covid = 6.6 times higher


Again 40 dead under the same time frame as Covid = 6.3 times higher.


So Covid-19, in a society with all the restrictions imposed for the last 10 weeks, produces a slightly lower death toll than a bad influenza year, where no restrictions were imposed at all.

And you extrapolate this data to mean Covid-19 isn't that bad?

Really good post that.

 

[Gabriel]

 

[crooky]

What happened to Karen's update and a load of discussion?

Thread seems dead today.

 

[BLUEMATT23]

I dont understand this track and trace thing.
How on earth if someone has CV19 say for example in a shop that I have been in possibly know where I live etc?

 

[blueparrot]

I dont understand this track and trace thing.
How on earth if someone has CV19 say for example in a shop that I have been in possibly know where I live etc?

They wouldn’t but most people in the shop should just be a passing contact either at 2 metres or with a mask. Closer contacts who you’ve spent more time with would be traceable.

 

[Cityfan]

I dont understand this track and trace thing.
How on earth if someone has CV19 say for example in a shop that I have been in possibly know where I live etc?

They are trying to find high probability contacts not someone you passed in a shop, however if you stood face to face with the shop assistant over a short distance they could be asking you which shops did you go into and did you have prolonged conversation with an assistant and try and find them, I would guess.

 

[HolisticJim]

Covid has only been around for 10 weeks so that would equate to 5 people hit by lightning and 33 dead from Covid = 6.6 times higher


Again 40 dead under the same time frame as Covid = 6.3 times higher.


So Covid-19, in a society with all the restrictions imposed for the last 10 weeks, produces a slightly lower death toll than a bad influenza year, where no restrictions were imposed at all.

And you extrapolate this data to mean Covid-19 isn't that bad?

Good post fella.

 

[the-ecstacy-of-eight]

Covid has only been around for 10 weeks so that would equate to 5 people hit by lightning and 33 dead from Covid = 6.6 times higher


Again 40 dead under the same time frame as Covid = 6.3 times higher.


So Covid-19, in a society with all the restrictions imposed for the last 10 weeks, produces a slightly lower death toll than a bad influenza year, where no restrictions were imposed at all.

And you extrapolate this data to mean Covid-19 isn't that bad?

Your maths is wrong (by a factor of about 2), but the points still stand. I said exactly the same about 3 posts before yours

 

[Gabriel]

 

[BlueAnorak]

Boris Johnson admitted today that the UK did NOT learn from the SARS and MERS.
No shit.
It still hasn't learnt by the looks of safety measures on the tube and public transport.

 

[the-ecstacy-of-eight]

Covid has only been around for 10 weeks so that would equate to 5 10 people hit by lightning and 33 dead from Covid = 6.6 3.3 times higher


Again 40 80 dead under the same time frame as Covid = 6.3 3.15 times higher.


So Covid-19, in a society with all the restrictions imposed for the last 10 weeks, produces a slightly lower death toll than a bad influenza year, where no restrictions were imposed at all.

And you extrapolate this data to mean Covid-19 isn't that bad?

Edited: Thanks to @the-ecstacy-of-eight for the fact checking!

:D Cheers Mr. Swede :D

;) Should I mention seasonal trends? Or should I just let you extrapolate yearly averages from 3month covid19 stats? ;)

:D Either way, the points still stand :D

 

[ayrshire_blue]

Covid has only been around for 10 weeks so that would equate to 5 10 people hit by lightning and 33 dead from Covid = 6.6 3.3 times higher


Again 40 80 dead under the same time frame as Covid = 6.3 3.15 times higher.


So Covid-19, in a society with all the restrictions imposed for the last 10 weeks, produces a slightly lower death toll than a bad influenza year, where no restrictions were imposed at all.

And you extrapolate this data to mean Covid-19 isn't that bad?

Edited: Thanks to @the-ecstacy-of-eight for the fact checking!

I wish you were on question time a couple of weeks ago to spell a couple of things out to that Johnson guy (no, not that one!) from Pizza express. Very dangerous individual and why he was permitted the air time I'll never know.

 

[Boris Becker’s Backhand]

So the prediction by Neil Ferguson of 500k dying wasn't over egged? Even he changed his mind a few days later.

It is serious, no doubting that. But is it serious enough to devastate the country for years to come, massively impact children's well-being and education and lead to countless deaths from suicide, cancer etc? Clearly any pandemic is a shite situation and whichever route you take it's going to have a huge impact on people. Looking at this particular virus it's clear that we have handled it wrong. Those who are fit and healthy shouldn't have been locked down and those who are elderly or have serious medical conditions should have been protected better.

Your final point about it killing a good chunk of those who catch it is garbage unless you are counting 0.5% or whatever it turns out to be as a big chunk.

Spot on. Well said.