Donald Trump

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Gaudion M said:
It is possibly something that analysts are overlooking. Common sense tells you that economic prosperity and the job market are very much linked.
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Normally it imply 'common sense', but why is this an anomaly then?

What would drive the stock market the other way from the jobs market?

I would have attached it to bailouts but I'm sure the stock market was rising(after initially falling) before the first bailouts were given.

So, does this mean the markets are driven by speculation on value on forthcoming information (i.e., knowing there's a chunk of change coming your way)? If that's the case, then the markets take on a life on their own after capital, with or without a jobs link.

I do note that jobs do feed the market and and market feeds jobs, so what I said before was hyperbolic. However, to my mind the above is also very true.

I'm not into stock markets, but I'm resistant to the notion that a high value stock market equals a great economy. Given the current state of play, how can this be true in any sense?
 
Bigga said:
Normally it imply 'common sense', but why is this an anomaly then?

What would drive the stock market the other way from the jobs market?

I would have attached it to bailouts but I'm sure the stock market was rising(after initially falling) before the first bailouts were given.

So, does this mean the markets are driven by speculation on value on forthcoming information (i.e., knowing there's a chunk of change coming your way)? If that's the case, then the markets take on a life on their own after capital, with or without a jobs link.

I do note that jobs do feed the market and and market feeds jobs, so what I said before was hyperbolic. However, to my mind the above is also very true.

I'm not into stock markets, but I'm resistant to the notion that a high value stock market equals a great economy. Given the current state of play, how can this be true in any sense?
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Labour costs represent a pretty significant proportion of expenditure for a lot of companies. COVID lay-offs have been a fairly easy and painless way to for some to trim excess fat. As far as I'm aware, there were no provisions in the latest bailout bill to ensure laid-off staff had to be rehired. I'm willing to be that many of theses companies will not return to pre-COVID employment levels any time soon, therefore making a significant saving which could potentially effect stock prices.

In an attempt to bring the discussion back to Trump, a rising stock market is just the kind of distraction he's been looking for. Dumb and Dumber (otherwise known as Don Jr and Eric) have been bragging about the markets on Twitter. COVID deaths are not even on their radar anymore, almost like they've been swept under the carpet.
 
Bigga said:
Normally it imply 'common sense', but why is this an anomaly then?
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It’s not an easy answer. I’ve listened into about 8 hours of conference calls with some of the smartest institutions around. There’s no one thing except that this is the first time that job losses etc are easily understood and it’s an artificial/man made/sort of planned mini recession unlike every previous one. Therefore people see a way out and light at the end of the tunnel.
 
SWP's back said:
It’s not an easy answer. I’ve listened into about 8 hours of conference calls with some of the smartest institutions around. There’s no one thing except that this is the first time that job losses etc are easily understood and it’s an artificial/man made/sort of planned mini recession unlike every previous one. Therefore people see a way out and light at the end of the tunnel.
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Yes. The perception is that there’s a time limit with easily-identifiable markers — progress on a vaccine. Some of the hardest hit segments business-wise aren’t down 100 percent any more (air travel, restaurants) but the “second derivative” (the negative rate of change) is getting less bad. The other two issues are the lack of alternative investments available where risk-adjusted returns look as good, and the effective endless backstop implied by the Federal Govt/Congress/The Fed to support impacted industries broadly. Willingness to run the printing press is a big part of this move.
 
FogBlueInSanFran said:
Yes. The perception is that there’s a time limit with easily-identifiable markers — progress on a vaccine. Some of the hardest hit segments business-wise aren’t down 100 percent any more (air travel, restaurants) but the “second derivative” (the negative rate of change) is getting less bad. The other two issues are the lack of alternative investments available where risk-adjusted returns look as good, and the effective endless backstop implied by the Federal Govt/Congress/The Fed to support impacted industries broadly. Willingness to run the printing press is a big part of this move.
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It's all of this coupled with the time disconnect between unemployment and the markets. One is a backwards looking indicator and the other forwards.
 
cjn said:
It's all of this coupled with the time disconnect between unemployment and the markets. One is a backwards looking indicator and the other forwards.
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Indeed -- the market trades daily and anticipates whereas UE claims are a seven day look back and UER is a month look back. Under normal circumstances, UE is a lagging indicator anyhow -- the laggiest -- but this was like a meteor hitting the earth -- everything negatively impacted all at once -- so I suspect it's much more a coincident indicator this "cycle" -- but I think most economic data points probably are to be fair. What's recovered first (or never hit that hard) is whatever was least impacted by COVID restrictions; the laggards are now improving as the sectors most impacted begin to recover.

BTW, the bond market doesn't apparently believe any of this. 10-year yield has sat on its duff for two months.
 
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FogBlueInSanFran said:
Indeed -- the market trades daily and anticiaptes whereas UE claims are a seven day look back and UER is a month look back. Under normal circumstances, UE is a lagging indicator but this was like a meteor hitting the earth -- everything negatively impacted all at once -- so I suspect it's much more a coincident indicator this "cycle" -- but I think most economic data points probably are to be fair. What's recovered first (or never hit that hard) is whatever was least impacted by COVID restrictions; the laggards are now improving as the sectors most impacted begin to recover.

BTW, the bond market doesn't apparently believe any of this. 10-year yield has sat on its duff for two months.
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Supply and demand re bond markets though, capital exiting the equity markets has to find a home.
 
Kay-lie is having a go at Twitter. And then randomly had a go at google for a search engine, with no obvious link to Twitter, and then ranting about Chiina. Oh, and the headlines about Mueller were largely anti-Trump, and how awful it is that Twitter allow incitement of violence against the Covington kids. There's a fleet of trucks driving around looking around for something that isn't a hole to drive through.

Apparently it's bias in action that the actions were taken against Trump.

The term of the day is 'so-called fact check'.

Ooh, "are you trying to silence factchecking?"
Kay-Lie "the MSM should be factchecked more than anyone, oh, here's a huge list" (yes, she denied the point of the question and then went off on a polemic)

He he. "you've said you won't lie, so are you saying that Trump has never put a tweet lie out?"
Kay-lie ... avoids answering the question, of course...
 
Bliimey, she's still banging on that hydroxychloroquine is worth taking, and being tested around the place. And how awful it is that a longstanding drug is being badly reported on. I guess they've still got 149,500,000 tablets then.

Oh, and Trump will take it again if he thinks he's been exposed.
 
MillionMilesAway said:
Bliimey, she's still banging on that hydroxychloroquine is worth taking, and being tested around the place. And how awful it is that a longstanding drug is being badly reported on. I guess they've still got 149,500,000 tablets then.

Oh, and Trump will take it again if he thinks he's been exposed.
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Trump has certainly been exposed but hydoxycynicalism isn’t going to save him
 
MillionMilesAway said:
Bliimey, she's still banging on that hydroxychloroquine is worth taking, and being tested around the place. And how awful it is that a longstanding drug is being badly reported on. I guess they've still got 149,500,000 tablets then.

Oh, and Trump will take it again if he thinks he's been exposed.
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There’s been a few cunts banging on about hydroxy on here as well. France now banned all use of it for CV19.
 
Trevor Morley's Tache said:
This is what happens when racist feel emboldened by the sack of sh*t in the White House.

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Not being funny but wouldn't the best course of action to be arrest and charge murderous racist Police Officers and root those with similar views out and publicly dismiss them too? Rocket science it ain't.

On a wider note the levels of racism in US Police Depts staggers me. If I were a cop I'd be livid because the actions of some cops put all the rest in peril. If I were a black man in the US I'd do anything - and I mean anything - to avoid detention by the Police.
 
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