Another new Brexit thread

[Gabriel]

I predict a comprehensive US/UK trade deal.

Other than the good weather won't last, I'm making no predictions.

 

[mcfc1632]

I asked for 2k off the sticker price of a used car last year. They told me to fuck off..

If you are one of those supporting the EU's position in these negotiations you should go back to that dealer and offer them a deal based on your learning from the current Brexit negotiations.

To start with - tell them that you will pay the full sticker price, but only if they are willing to accept conditions.....

Insist that they must concede to your demands that they take responsibility to dictate for many years to come what car you and any member of you family can buy and the price that you must pay for it and where you can buy it from.

You seem the sort of strong minded fella that could push hard and get an even better deal - insist that they must also take responsibility for setting the price on anything and everything that you and all your family might ever want to sell - either through your/their businesses or personal work - fuck, you seem so good at this - push for the best possible deal and insist that they need to control anything you might ever sell on ebay on anywhere else.

Don't let them get off without less than full control over your life

You seem to have understood these negotiations well - when you have played the hard negotiator and secured these concessions from them - I bet you might be able to get them to accept more controls over you and your family

 

[BobKowalski]

An interesting question will be to see how international fair trade evolves as countries/blocs retreat behind their borders to cope with first the health and then economic effects of the virus. With the US increasingly hostile to China and threatening to withdraw from the WTO, albeit still unlikely, the new arena to which Brexiteers pointed may no longer exist. Similarly, the EU that the UK left will look radically different. It faces another decade, maybe more, of slow growth/stagnation, but with less 'internalization' possible it may accelerate internal integration. The arguments of 2016 already seem dated in the new reality of 2020.

Agreed. Greater emphasis on regionalisation with supply chains shortened within a bloc of countries allowing greater control. Retrenchment followed by more cautious expansion over the next decade. Regionalisation will push EU internal integration. The EU recovery package is a big moment. If it passes then it moves the Eurozone towards a EU Treasury function. If it doesn’t then it raises the question of whether European nations really want to cooperate with each other or not.

As with any crisis we are at several crossroad moments.

 

[BobKowalski]

I recall pointing this out when May put the original WA on the table. If we can keep the customs border as ‘light touch’ as possible (still TBA) then the advantages of de facto Single Market membership for one region of the UK, an advantage denied the other regions, are many. Of course the DUP saying this are also admitting there are benefits to Single Market membership but hey better late than never.

‘The DUP says it now sees the "advantage" of a Brexit deal that contains backstop features it originally disliked’

https://bbc.in/3eyZUdy

 

[BobKowalski]

Ah yes, the blameless EU once again. Remind me, who else has to endure these "barriers" besides the UK?

Ah yes, all non-EU trading/member nations! Yet it's the UK that's the problem...

I don't want to see us raise trade barriers, the EU decides these barriers must remain in place for all non-EU members in order to protect their bloc. They could decide to open up free trade at any time they liked.

1. Yes you do. You voted for them.

2. There are no barriers to trade within the bloc of 27 countries, 30 if you count EEA members. There are less barriers to trade between 27 sovereign nations then between individual States in the US.

3. The EU has more FTA agreements with non-EU countries than any other bloc or country. All these agreements are designed to lower trade barriers as much as possible.

Again I regret to inform you that your crippling lack of knowledge is proving to be a hindrance when posting.

 

[Saddleworth2]

Agreed. Greater emphasis on regionalisation with supply chains shortened within a bloc of countries allowing greater control. Retrenchment followed by more cautious expansion over the next decade. Regionalisation will push EU internal integration. The EU recovery package is a big moment. If it passes then it moves the Eurozone towards a EU Treasury function. If it doesn’t then it raises the question of whether European nations really want to cooperate with each other or not.

As with any crisis we are at several crossroad moments.

As I said last week, what doesn't kill you makes you stronger. The EU is facing that moment now. It will either further integrate or fracture. Either way has huge risks associated but I believe they will take the former path.

 

[Metal Biker]

1. Yes you do. You voted for them.

2. There are no barriers to trade within the bloc of 27 countries, 30 if you count EEA members. There are less barriers to trade between 27 sovereign nations then between individual States in the US.

3. The EU has more FTA agreements with non-EU countries than any other bloc or country. All these agreements are designed to lower trade barriers as much as possible.

Again I regret to inform you that your crippling lack of knowledge is proving to be a hindrance when posting.

And your lack of understanding people's points and opinions to twist them into an argument and discussion they weren't even having appears to be yours!

You are aware that as an independent nation we can create said FTA's with those "other nations" at will, yes? Except this time on our terms.

 

[mcfc1632]

Its a fair challenge. To answer the question though you need to have a vision for what you want the UK to look like in 2, 5, 10, 20 years and then decide what political scenario is most able to deliver that. So if you want a nation that is socially inclusive, well educated, good social and health services, looks after the aged with pensions they can live on, poverty eradicated as far as possible, tackling climate change in a sensitive way, freedom of speech, a responsible media.... Do you believe that will be best delivered by the UK as a separate, independent nation, governed within more or less current structures or by being part of a United States of Europe with full fiscal, political integration.
My gut tells me we will not achieve the UK I would like to see (given the evidence of the last 10 years) as an independent nation.

TBF - given that response I assume that you are stating that you personally and based on the current conditions/risks etc, would wish to be part of a fully federal United States of Europe rather than an independent UK.

If so - that means you, just like Bob, are at least openly admitting that a) to stay in the EU will likely lead to the UK in a United States of Europe and b) that on balance you prefer that outcome.

I have no issue with anyone that holds that view, but...…………. (see end of the post)

But, there have been so many 1000s of posts on these threads from Remainers screaming that the Leavers are wrong to consider that inevitable integration is the destination that will result from staying with the EU project.

This means that so many Remainers on here have - for 4 years - either:

• not ever understood the truth of where sticking with the EU will take UK citizens or
• couldn't be arsed to make the effort to fond out because they were duped into voting Remain by the lies of the Remain campaign - and cannot bring themselves to change their tribal allegiance

Also - indeed you do not need to: "..... have a vision for what you want the UK to look like in 2, 5, 10, 20 years and then decide what political scenario is most able to deliver that. "

You just need to be able and/or willing to assess where the EU membership will steer the herd over the next years and what the EU will look like in 2, 5, 10, 20 years and then decide whether you wish to be tethered within that collective.

If you make the effort - it is not hard to see where the EU is going and indeed, as you have recently discovered, that the EU simply must make the journey to full federalism if it is to survive. The EU clearly face an existential crisis and full federalism is the only hope of survival.

I and a great many other Leavers did do that assessment and want no part of the EU's future model - we want to break free from the docility of the main herd and seek new pastures to graze.

And, BTW, if people like me have absolutely no issue with people like Bob and (perhaps) yourself making a conscious decision to opt for membership of the EU superstate over the UK independent state - can you try to explain for me why there are so many on here that take extreme exception to myself and others consciously choosing to opt for membership of an independent UK over the EU superstate?

 

[west didsblue]

You know full well what you're doing, don't lie.

No-one's falling for it.

Just because he knows that you know that the sovereignty argument is complete bullshit doesn’t make it an invalid question as in spite of it being utter bullshit it’s the only argument you’ve got, and it’s not unreasonable to ask for an explanation.

 

[west didsblue]

As I said last week, what doesn't kill you makes you stronger. The EU is facing that moment now. It will either further integrate or fracture. Either way has huge risks associated but I believe they will take the former path.

And irrespective of which way it goes we’d have been better off in than out but that ship’s sailed and we’ve got to make the best of the shit hand we have dealt ourselves.

 

[Metal Biker]

Just because he knows that you know that the sovereignty argument is complete bullshit doesn’t make it an invalid question as in spite of it being utter bullshit it’s the only argument you’ve got, and it’s not unreasonable to ask for an explanation.

Oh dear, the cheerleader has arrived...

You mean a sovereignty argument that I wasn't making? You tend to throw every single complaint about leave arguments onto the same people, even when it's not ideas they fully endorse.

But at least you see exactly what i'm on about on seeing what stonerblue is trying to do. Maybe you should explain that to him, he appears to be having difficulties. :)

 

[mcfc1632]

In any negotiation the buyer has a maximum price he will pay and the seller has a minimum price he will accept. Let’s say you’re the buyer for a company called UK and the salesman works for a company called the EU. The salesman has been instructed by his bosses that under no circumstances is he to accept a penny less than the 2.1k asking price because you’ve dealt with this company before and the buyer always caves in the end. However, the UK is under new management and the new buyer has been told he can’t offer more than 1.5k. The salesman starts the negotiation quite arrogantly because he expects the buyer to cave as in previous negotiations. However it quickly becomes apparent that he’s dealing with a completely different kettle of fish. The buyer realises the salesman has his hands tied so gives him the opportunity to discuss the situation with his bosses. That’s where we are now.

Well done - that works well

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

First off. The EU haven’t asked for an extension. Their calculation is that the time pressure will produce UK concessions as they did in the Withdrawal Agreement.

Does the EU think an extension is sensible? Yes because complex agreements take time and right now time has been shredded with the pandemic and attention is currently focused on digging European economies out of a hole. A hole that includes our economy. You have noticed that everyone is in the midst of a pandemic I take it? I ask because I am no longer convinced people are aware of the fucking obvious.

I will say this next bit slowly as it may come as a bit of a shock. The UK has not asked for a deal like Japan or Canada. There are complex reasons for this so you may want to make a cup of tea or something to help digest this next nugget of information. The UK is not Japan or Canada. Whoa. Big news I know but it is true. Japan and Canada are actually different countries and, you will like this next bit, they are far, far away and the UK is very, very close to the EU.

Now stay with me mon brave as we continue down this path of enlightenment. You may have heard of a country called the United States of America. Big country. Currently burning down to the ground. Canada is very, very close to the USA so it has a more comprehensive and deeper trade deal with the USA than it does the EU which is far, far away.

Like Canada with the USA, the UK has asked the EU for special provisions on Services, Security, Data sharing etc because the UK is very, very close to the EU and these special provisions reflect this. Some of these provisions usually only come with a Single Market and the EU will not trade these provisions lightly. The UK will have to offer something in return like say fish for a deal on financial services, or budgetary contributions or some form of freedom of movement (which we have asked for ‘professionals’ - not common folk you understand, oh no perish the thought).

So when you say the EU will not offer the UK a deal like Canada or Japan you will now appreciate a large part of the reason why is because we haven’t asked for a deal like Canada or Japan. Nor should we. We should be asking for an ambitious and special deal and to get it we will have to start offering goodies and commitments in return.

Hope this has helped you and your Brexiteer pals.

We are all doomed hey Bob?? Lol So so glad I dont live in your world. You are clearly entitled to your opinion but im also so glad that you are repeatedly prooved wrong with every event. Have a good day.

 

[Gabriel]

Agreed. Greater emphasis on regionalisation with supply chains shortened within a bloc of countries allowing greater control. Retrenchment followed by more cautious expansion over the next decade. Regionalisation will push EU internal integration. The EU recovery package is a big moment. If it passes then it moves the Eurozone towards a EU Treasury function. If it doesn’t then it raises the question of whether European nations really want to cooperate with each other or not.

As with any crisis we are at several crossroad moments.

Regionalisation, or 'cohesion', has been quietly at work for years, with particular emphasis recently on projects that blur border areas in countries. It's so ingrained in the daily lives of people that it's difficult to see it being reversed. Not championing it, simply reporting what it is. The effects of the virus will likely add to integration as you say, for example there will be even more internal tourism in the next couple of years as 'international' tourism may remain impossible/unappealing. The same will likely be true for trade. When the alternatives appear even more uncertain, it's hard to see them not passing the recovery package.

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

1. Yes you do. You voted for them.

2. There are no barriers to trade within the bloc of 27 countries, 30 if you count EEA members. There are less barriers to trade between 27 sovereign nations then between individual States in the US.

3. The EU has more FTA agreements with non-EU countries than any other bloc or country. All these agreements are designed to lower trade barriers as much as possible.

Again I regret to inform you that your crippling lack of knowledge is proving to be a hindrance when posting.

This all shows that there is no need for trade barriers as proven by points 2&3 above. They are a construct not a geographical feature - the equivalent of getting a pair of gloves and filling one glove with dog shit to make the other glove look better. The only benefit I can see to them is to protect industry and labour markets from cheap imports due to cheap labour / slavery elsewhere - sitting (as I'm sure most of us are) surrounded by cheap freely imported Chinese goods I'm not sure it works.

 

[west didsblue]

Oh dear, the cheerleader has arrived...

You mean a sovereignty argument that I wasn't making? You tend to throw every single complaint about leave arguments onto the same people, even when it's not ideas they fully endorse.

But at least you see exactly what i'm on about on seeing what stonerblue is trying to do. Maybe you should explain that to him, he appears to be having difficulties. :)

If you’re not making a sovereignty argument you’re not making an argument at all.
Thanks for confirming your ignorance.

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

Did you not receive your tax payer funded pro EU propaganda leaflet? It was sent to every household. Did you miss the Prime Minister, Chancellor, Governor of the Bank of England, the IMF, the president of the US, and Bob Twatting Geldof banging on about this for months? You only noticed what was written on the side of a bus?

Blinkered lol, they only remember what they want to remember and convieniently forget all the lies those in power told.

 

[mcfc1632]

An interesting question will be to see how international fair trade evolves as countries/blocs retreat behind their borders to cope with first the health and then economic effects of the virus. With the US increasingly hostile to China and threatening to withdraw from the WTO, albeit still unlikely, the new arena to which Brexiteers pointed may no longer exist. Similarly, the EU that the UK left will look radically different. It faces another decade, maybe more, of slow growth/stagnation, but with less 'internalization' possible it may accelerate internal integration. The arguments of 2016 already seem dated in the new reality of 2020.

So good job we had the chance and took it to get out in 2016

I remember saying that it was a surprise to be given the chance - it would certainly never come again.

So many things could have happened to see us locked into the EU project for good - we have had to have been lucky several times, but hopefully will see it through now that we are in the home straight

 

[Metal Biker]

If you’re not making a sovereignty argument you’re not making an argument at all.
Thanks for confirming your ignorance.

You know what my "argument" and motivations were.
Against membership of an EU that was slowly and increasingly becoming more federalised, for the UK to then leave EU, apply for EFTA. You know this, yet continually make arguments against my position insisting it's "what I voted for", despite the numerous times i've corrected you.

Thank you for confirming your ignorance. :)

 

[mcfc1632]

As I said last week, what doesn't kill you makes you stronger. The EU is facing that moment now. It will either further integrate or fracture. Either way has huge risks associated but I believe they will take the former path.

That puzzled me - from recent exchanges - you know that they will take the path of integration - indeed they must.

Does not mean that they will succeed though, although I genuinely hope that they do (but believe that they won't) as it will be better for the UK

I hope for the best for the UK - not bad news for the EU as some try to suggest