Lol, well Jezza, the stance he took about Brexit prior to getting the Labour gig doesn'tI tell you this, comrade, Starmer has been taking long term tactical decisions all his working life. I suspect he can identify a bad idea when he sees one. But time will tell.
Completely agree, which is why I don’t think it will happen. ‘Success’ however is a qualified term. You will recall that Brexit changed from being a land of milk and honey and a free trade area from Iceland to the Russian border to people arguing that when they voted Leave they had knowingly voted to make themselves poorer. But even when they are poorer I don’t see there being a clamour to rejoin, nor do I see Labour wanting to open the issue up again. Too much damage has been caused. The government is arguing that its handling of Covid is a success and there are people on this forum who swallow that, so you can imagine what they will say about Brexit no matter what the actual consequences.
Anyway, back on topic.
That Johnson bloke. Is he a ****, or what?
He certainly lied about the free trade zone from Iceland to the Russian border.Completely agree, which is why I don’t think it will happen. ‘Success’ however is a qualified term. You will recall that Brexit changed from being a land of milk and honey and a free trade area from Iceland to the Russian border to people arguing that when they voted Leave they had knowingly voted to make themselves poorer. But even when they are poorer I don’t see there being a clamour to rejoin, nor do I see Labour wanting to open the issue up again. Too much damage has been caused. The government is arguing that its handling of Covid is a success and there are people on this forum who swallow that, so you can imagine what they will say about Brexit no matter what the actual consequences.
Anyway, back on topic.
That Johnson bloke. Is he a ****, or what?
He certainly lied about the free trade zone from Iceland to the Russian border, Turkey joining the EU, £350m for the NHS, the number of children he has, his affair with Jennifer Arcuri, why he was sacked by Michael Howard, Why Vote Leave broke electoral law, why Dominic Cummings went to Durham, the EU’s regulations about bendy bananas, what his Godfather said that he “quoted” in his newspaper column etc etc...
What Starmer wants to do, I suspect, is win. If you go in to politics to improve the lot of ordinary working people you wont achieve that by constantly being in opposition. The last Labour government enacted laws that made life better for literally millions of people. Every Labour Leader since has achieved nothing. Even without investing a penny in schools and hospitals Starmer would make life better for most people by simply not being Boris Johnson.
It is interesting to think about the things that need to happen for Labour to win in 2024. Obviously, it needs to win back the red wall seats, but I think that is quite probable anyway. I doubt that it will win back Scotland, but if the SNP continues to dominate there will be a number of kindred spirits in parliament from there.
But those things are not enough. To win, Labour needs about 150 more seats than it currently has, or 100 if you count Scotland. So it needs to win in marginals like Basildon, High Peak, Worcester and Watford as well as hang on to places like Kensington and Chelsea and Canterbury and St Albans, all of which they won against a backdrop of Brexit. Now that Brexit is finally over, and all that remains is to see how damaging it will be for our economy, Labour’s success in 2024 will depend upon policies that attract floating voters. I personally don’t see a left wing manifesto as doing that.
Even then, Labour will need other things to go its way. One of those is public perception. Starmer needs to deal with the anti semitism issue, with momentum, with the former anti-Corbyn element and so on and he needs to bring all in the party around the same table and get them focussed on beating the government. I don’t see him achieving party unity by delivering an internal bloodbath, and even if he did I don’t see that doing so would make Labour a more attractive prospect to the electorate. Starmer has got the beating of Johnson at the dispatch box, and I think that will go a long way towards reuniting the left and right wings of the party: there is nothing like success for breeding success. If the need to shift the current set of liars and chancers that passes for a government doesn’t unite the Labour Party, it will deserve the oblivion that will await it.
You mention the possibility that the left would desert the party if a centre-left manifesto was adopted, so even if it appealed to centreground voters Labour still wouldn’t win. In my view, that’s not likely to happen. It didn’t happen after Kinnock expelled the Militant tendency in 1985: it might have been through gritted teeth but militant members still largely voted labour in 1987 and 1992 and again in 1997. If it did, well, that just increases the chances that the clown in No 10 will stay there another five years. It was as clear as it could be in 1997 that Blair stood for free market principles underpinned by a greater concern for social cohesion than had shown for the previous two decades. Did you vote for him anyway? I’d have guessed you did. I think the same will happen, even if you are right about the left leaving the party in 2024.
Like I said, allowing the perfect, as some would see it, to be the enemy of the good Will just make it more likely that the current government will remain in power for another decade. That is an utterly chilling thought.
What Starmer wants to do, I suspect, is win.
attract floating voters. I personally don’t see a left wing manifesto as doing that.
Starmer needs to deal with the anti semitism issue, with momentum, with the former anti-Corbyn element and so on and he needs to bring all in the party around the same table and get them focussed on beating the government. I don’t see him achieving party unity by delivering an internal bloodbath, and even if he did I don’t see that doing so would make Labour a more attractive prospect to the electorate.
You mention the possibility that the left would desert the party if a centre-left manifesto was adopted, so even if it appealed to centreground voters Labour still wouldn’t win. In my view, that’s not likely to happen. It didn’t happen after Kinnock expelled the Militant tendency in 1985:
Blair stood for free market principles underpinned by a greater concern for social cohesion
Well said. The lack of gratuitous references of late to our Prime Minster being a **** is quite shameful. Back on topic please.Folks, let's keep the tit for tat stuff to pms.
****.
There in lies the problem the Labour Party face, with the moderates being overwhelmingly pro-EU I am certain it will become the party of rejoin. It may have traction if BREXIT turns out to be a disaster and with that fucking clown Johnson in charge that is certainly a possibility, but if Brexit is a success then Labour under Starmer if it does become the party of rejoin is well and truly fucked
Folks, let's keep the tit for tat stuff to pms.
****.
Morning, Jeremy.
The country has indeed had enough, yet we see opposition leaders writing to the EU,
attempting to extend our transition/membership for two more years. If Sir Keir attempts
to align himself to these types, in any way shape or form, then as @Rascal says, the recently
lost red wall will stay lost.
I’ve been instructed by @MillionMilesAway to be more succinct.Gone are the days when he was ‘a bit of a’, ‘a spineless’, ‘a lying’, ‘a semi-spineless’, even ‘an absolute’...
I’ve been instructed by @MillionMilesAway to be more succinct.
Not really seeking to 'make a point' - certainly not wishing to get involved in some debate on the definitions of 'classes' - but just a factual observation.The constant referencing of the 'Working class' is a feature of leftist politics, this description
is now not so relevant, the tradesmen being cited are an example of that.
These people, as I said, are the ones that have eschewed Labour, as it now doesn't represent
them, and made that perfectly clear at the last GE.
Not really seeking to 'make a point' - certainly not wishing to get involved in some debate on the definitions of 'classes' - but just a factual observation.
I have always been someone that likes to join the 'after work beer down the pub' groups - used to in Manchester many years ago and have done where I live in the South now that work allows.
Of my group of 'mates down the pub, their jobs and voting preferences are/were:
Wayne - Scaffolder - Conservative - Leave
Mel - LG office worker - Conservative - Remain
Mark - Chippy - Conservative - Leave
Tracey - Bank Manager - Conservative - Leave
Mel - Gardener - Labour - Leave
Sean - plumber - Conservative - Leave
Matty - Roofer - Conservative - Leave
Paul - Brickie - Conservative - Leave
Mark - owns some form of engineering business - Conservative - Leave
Tom - Electrician - Conservative - Remain
Tony - Provides 'steels' - Conservative - Leave
Justin & Emma - Carpet cleaning company - Conservative - Leave
There are others but I do not know how they voted - but I would guess in a similar way - I have almost certainly voted Labour more often than any of those that go in my local pub - and also probably more chance of me voting Labour at the next GE than any/most of the tradesmen.
I just think that demonstrates the point that you were making - and. demonstrates the challenge Labour will have - and why they had no chance with a Corbyn/McDonnell ticket.
When I was growing up Labour did not need to WIN voters over - that is now the big change.
As you mention - Labour cannot just assume that certain demograpgics will vote for them - they actually have to win the votes of people
It amounts to the same thing...ooh, misrepresentation! Asked, not instructed.
The likes of the ex Tory Soubry, any many Labour MPs are now out of their jobs,they actually have to win the votes of people
That’s the key for me
Can’t just appeal to us by sAying oh look at those rich Tory wankers
Let’s tax them and build new schools with it
The us against them has gone
Tell me how your gonna help me improve my life
Oh and getting mp’s to vote against their constituents is always a bad way of winning back votes
Vote for us......we know better than you!
It amounts to the same thing...