COVID-19 — Coronavirus

Status
Not open for further replies.
14 of the 16 are from the last 72 hours.

I will do something different below today and give a list of the 5 day by day totals from 1 Sep to today.

This way you will see very clearly the increase visually.
 
In this list the date is the day on which the deaths are recored.

And the five numbers that follow the total AFTER that days data is added - totting up to the five day total.

For the mist recent days there will obviously be just 4, then 3, then 2, them 1 day so far. So these are all very likely to increase over coming days:

Sep 1 = 1, 3, 3, 3, then 3

Sep 2 = 1, 7, 9, 9, then 9

Sep 3 = 0, 3, 3, 3. then 3

Sep 4 = 2, 3, 3, 3, then 4

Sep 5 = 2, 6. 8, 8, then 8

Sep 6 = 0, 3, 6, 6. then 6

Sep 7 = 3, 7, 9, 9, then 9

Sep 8 = 2, 6, 10. 10, 10 then 10

Sep 9 = 1, 4, 5, 5, then 5

Sep 10 = 2, 6, 6, 6, then 7

Sep 11 = 1, 4, 4, 5, then 6

Sep 12 = 2, 2, 5, 5, then 7

Sep 13 = 1, 8, 11, 11, then 13

Sep 14 = 0, 4, 9, 9, then 9

Sep 15 = 3, 8, 12, 12 and is12 at 4 days

Sep 16 = 6, 10, 14 and is14 at 3 days

Sep 17 = 3, and is now 11 at just 2 days.

Sep 18 = 2 (first day).

You can see that we WERE down at low levels but the rising numbers of hospitalisations and then ICU numbers escalated and it was inevitable where these would lead as there is a lag between cases/hospitalisation/death as we all know.

Over the last few days this has taken off and is starting to become a runaway train.

This is why politicians have suddenly woken up to the danger. Though it was becoming apparent at least a week ago as my hospital reports each evening in here warned.
 
Scotland data:

3 deaths (this is now rising in frequency just like England)

350 cases (new record) at 5.3% of tests (worryingly high record). This number has been escalating fast all week. And is really illustrative - almost certainly why Boris stopped England from releasing it just before these numbers started to go up. A decision no journalist has noticed to ask him why.

Ypu cannot miss a rising percentage - but day to day changing total case numbers make it easier to miss the pattern.

64 in hospital on the new low measure - this is a 50% rise on this measure (that replaced the old about 270 number lress than a week ago so in those terms would mean the highest in many weeks). It is up 3 on yesterdsay.

And the icu ventilators up several. again.
 
The comments by Nicola Sturgeon yesterday and Boris Johnson and the demands for a Cobra meeting will be because they knew this was coming.

Especially as with the mess that testing is this is very likely a bigger underestimate than it needs to be.

That UK wide meeting surely has to happen imminently now.

This is a UK wide crisis. We need joined up thinking AND messaging today - not after a few days chatting it over in Whitehall.
 
I thought this was both interesting and suggests we don’t need to be quite so afraid of Covid-19. In essence it’s suggesting that all countries that had very low flu seasons in 2019/20 were effectively left a ‘tinder-box‘ of frail elderly people who the virus has since swept up and will, in all likelihood, sweep up some more throughout the autumn and winter, as any respiratory virus would. I don’t agree with all his conclusions but his description of why the graphs were always likely to look the same, whatever we did is interesting as is the correlation between low XS deaths last year and high death rates this year as well as the climatic effect.
 
Healdplace said:
Scotland data:

3 deaths (this is now rising in frequency just like England)

350 cases (new record) at 5.3% of tests (worryingly high record). This number has been escalating fast all week. And is really illustrative - almost certainly why Boris stopped England from releasing it just before these numbers started to go up. A decision no journalist has noticed to ask him why.

Ypu cannot miss a rising percentage - but day to day changing total case numbers make it easier to miss the pattern.

64 in hospital on the new low measure - this is a 50% rise on this measure (that replaced the old about 270 number lress than a week ago so in those terms would mean the highest in many weeks). It is up 3 on yesterdsay.

And the icu ventilators up several. again.
Click to expand...

Are the ICU ventilators general figures or specific to people with covid? I am asking it was posted in the main forum yesterday that the only release the specific ventilator figures at the start of the next month. NHS website said the same but not sure if there is somewhere else releasing then daily.
 
True_Blue69 said:
Are the ICU ventilators general figures or specific to people with covid? I am as it was posted in the main forum yesterday that the only release the specific ventilator figures at the start of the next month. NHS website said the same but not sure if there is somewhere else releasing then daily.
Click to expand...

In the Covid data reports they are, yes. When Nicola explained the other day the drop from 270 in hospital to 40+ in one day she explained these changes were to make sure it was only Covid patients who had been diagnosed within the past 28 days and altered the icu ventilator patients down by 1 at the same time to be more explicit on this.
 
Wales data 2 deaths 212 cases at 2.3% of tests. Not as steep as Scotland but the % here has been going up all week.

I bet the same is true in England but of course we are never told this critical figure here. And it is now much harder to work it out day to day.
 
Scotland week to week:

0 death v 3 deaths

221 cases v 350 cases

2.8% of tests v 5.3%

261 (old system) in hospital v 64 (in real terms a rise of at least 50% in patient numbers - so in the old system would be well into the 300s I assume).

Ventilator patients was 7 now 9.
 
Nicola Sturgeon has again asked Boris for that Cobra meeting as he ignored her request yesterday.

We cannot afford a dithering prime minister of any party. This is surely an obvious urgent necessity. She should not need to be asking. Let alone twice.
 
Northern Ireland is the same and they too have demanded a Cobra meeting after 5 deaths at a hospital linked to Covid in past few days.

They also had record numbers today 222 cases at what looks like about 2.5% minimum of tests.

21 patients in hospital and 4 in icu ventilator beds.

The weekly rolling average of cases that last week was 554 - has escalated day by day and is now at a record 913.

The number of deaths here is worrying as they have been so low and the numbers testing positive in the cases is at around 14% aged over 60 - a bit worse than Scotland. Though these are reportedly rising in England too.

Unfortunately they will likely not post this data until Monday in Northern Ireland unless they change tack as they got used to not needing to bother with single figures in hospital and no deaths for months and cases hardly ever going out of single figures either.
 
Last edited:
The Light Was Yellow Sir said:
I thought this was both interesting and suggests we don’t need to be quite so afraid of Covid-19. In essence it’s suggesting that all countries that had very low flu seasons in 2019/20 were effectively left a ‘tinder-box‘ of frail elderly people who the virus has since swept up and will, in all likelihood, sweep up some more throughout the autumn and winter, as any respiratory virus would. I don’t agree with all his conclusions but his description of why the graphs were always likely to look the same, whatever we did is interesting as is the correlation between low XS deaths last year and high death rates this year as well as the climatic effect.
Click to expand...



Is that a new report or the one posted a few days ago in here. Which was encouraging I agree as I posted in reply to the first one. Is this an update?
 
Healdplace said:
Is that a new report or the one posted a few days ago in here. Which was encouraging I agree as I posted in reply to the first one. Is this an update?
Click to expand...
Not sure mate. Apologies if it’s the one you’d already posted I must have missed it. Still, worth a look for anyone else who might have missed it.
I think looking at that is the exact opposite of what we are doing at the minute. Respiratory viruses kill vulnerable people every year and that seems to have been forgotten at the minute. Evidence, evidence, evidence is the only science we should be following and having leaders who are prepared to change course, as soon as the evidence dictates.
 
So the UK hospital deaths is 21 - the most in some time. Mid July was the last time we had this number.

And N Ireland may yet add to that.

Does not sound like a lot but its a rapid doubling of numbers and if you double 21 you are at 42 and double that - well you get the picture.


Without acting (and the current restrictions are not working in GM a month on) then we will be at a concerning level before we do anything and a runaway train is far harder to stop the longer you wait.

Spain and France have both seen triple figure death numbers in recent days (though the French one yesterday had a lot of catch ups added in they were still more than double where we are now).

They were where we are a couple of weeks ago.

Hope for the best but plan for the worst is the only sensible approach to this virus.
 
Last edited:
Last Saturday there were just 8 UK hospital deaths v today's 21. The all settings then became 9. Today will I think pretty clearly be a lot more.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Unread Posts

Don't have an account? Register now and see fewer ads!

SIGN UP
Back
Top