COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[Churchlawtonblue]

Population density determines how many people you generally meet in a day and the number of possible virus transmission episodes in a day.
It's not rocket engineering its basic population probability mathematics/statistics that I did for my day job for 4 years with The ONS in Titchfield.

i agree, but that is/was not what people were talking about earlier in this thread.

its intersting isnt it, a friend of mine came back from holiday 2 weeks at a second home in France about three weeks ago. they hardly left their home as everytime they went out in towns or markets the French were just not socially distancing. This wasnt young people it was all generations, he said it was significantly worse than back home in Leeds yorkshire.

 

[BlueAnorak]

precisely. Ive been trying to explain that possibility on here a few times the last few weeks but just get shouted down by Karen etc. They refuse to consider or listen to anything other than the party line.

Herd immunity depends on how many remain in the population that have not the virus and are immune.
The basic maths for herd immunity at the start of an epidemic is
HI = 1-(1/R0)
If R0 is 1.6 it is about 37.5% of the population
If R0 is 5.1 it is about 80% of the population.
Due to the asymmptomatic nature of Covid-19 symptoms they really haven't got a clue but place R0 somewhere between 1.6 and 5.1
Hence the 60% they often talk about.

If 60% is herd immunity then 20% gets you into the 2nd quartile which reduces the steepness of the new viral infection distribution curve.
On top of this they think common colds and other related RNA viruses give us additional protection.

 

[BlueAnorak]

The second they changed to "control the virus" motto they moved the blame from them to us.

Well it is down to us. The yoof and young adults gave up on social distancing months ago. They need to get a fucking grip to be honest. Many of their great grandparents risked their lives in a war. All the yoof and young people need to do is sit down in a pub and not get too trollied

 

[kaz7]

I'm sure there are more articles but I just did a quick search and that was one that came up https://theconversation.com/coronav...t-after-20-of-a-population-is-infected-141584

Seen it mentioned in a few other places, if you search you will probably find more.

Three month old opinion piece ,you really need to up your game

 

[kaz7]

Pubs and restaurants must now shut by 10pm. Does the virus know what time it is?

iti s about viral load,the less time you are in contact with people the better a d it cuts down on the late drinkers piling in pubs ,i think they should have to go takeaway or nothi ng

more policy changes at 10pm ,fucking stupid ,we are on england time,do it during the day like normal people

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

Herd immunity depends on how many remain in the population that have not the virus and are immune.
The basic maths for herd immunity at the start of an epidemic is
HI = 1-(1/R0)
If R0 is 1.6 it is about 37.5% of the population
If R0 is 5.1 it is about 80% of the population.
Due to the asymmptomatic nature of Covid-19 symptoms they really haven't got a clue but place R0 somewhere between 1.6 and 5.1
Hence the 60% they often talk about.

If 60% is herd immunity then 20% gets you into the 2nd quartile which reduces the steepness of viral infection distribution curve.
On top of this they think common colds and other related RNA viruses give us additional protection.

good post, thanks for sharing.

 

[BlueAnorak]

Sorry mate so in less dense areas the herd immunity level can be less to kill it off??

Not really, it's a time thing. In areas of low population density the new infection curve is much less steep as there are less chances per day of individuals passing it on.
In historical plagues, cities get hit very quickly and the main death surge is over pretty quickly too, but it rumbles on in the countryside for a lot longer.

 

[ballinio]

Pubs and restaurants must now shut by 10pm. Does the virus know what time it is?

No , but the government can show who’s in charge of us all

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

Three month old opinion piece ,you really need to up your game

Oh dear, you need to accept that their are other opinions and possibilities. Did you bother reading anything about Manaus and if so are you willing to share your views on why or how that has occurred?

 

[crooky]

just doesn’t make sense. Most are half empty by that time anyway

Remember these lot don't know a world outside a 24/7 city like London.

Other than weekends 11pm is generally when pubs close anyway so 1 hours difference and most people have gone before 11 anyway.

 

[BlueAnorak]

Pubs and restaurants must now shut by 10pm. Does the virus know what time it is?

Good restrictions IMO.
The table service one being the best.

You can still go out but it reduces super spreading events.

IMO, it should go a bit further. If you are,standing up in a pub then you should have to wear a mask. Going to multiple pubs should be a no-no too especially after the one man pub crawl super spreading event in Bolton.

 

[BLUEMATT23]

Sorry to hear that mate sounds absolutely shit. Not sure on your circumstances but people swear that exercise and a healthy diet which gives you something to focus on is the best thing to do when struggling with depression or anxiety. Might not work for you but it might be worth a go.

Thanks for advice
It's very much a day by day thing at the moment. I run a lot but lots of days when i really wonder is it all worth it anymore. My dad died last year my mum died when I was 24. And now this horrible lockdown I just dont see the point anymore but I'll try and get myself in a better place.

 

[Bazza_Talks]

Nearly a third of recent ‘Covid deaths’ were not caused by Covid.

From the article:

Despite the fact that Covid still dominates our lives, thankfully deaths are at extraordinary low levels. Office for National Statistics data show that in August, Covid was not even in the top 20 causes of death in England. Nor was it in the top 15 causes in Wales.

Yet we still get more ludicrous restrictions. Yes, I know people have died from Covid. That isn't the point. It is the rationale for lockdowns that really must be critiqued (they aren't in the article above - I include it only because it undermines official statistics yet again (how can people have confidence in these idiots), after their useless models were miles out, their incompetence over testing, useless masks that still have no medical validity, and the stupid rules which simply delay the inevitable costing the country millions of jobs and billions of pounds in the process). Sadly all our politicians are yes men and women. They have failed the public big time, every single one of them. The press have done exactly the same. Hardly any have interrogated the problems that are so obvious and looked at alternatives.

 

[slicky202]

really feel sorry for the kids in all this.

my little lad had two days back then 14 day house arrest. His behaviour started changing, he’s doing odd little things that he didn’t do before. This is torture for children and boarders on abuse. Wouldn’t at all surprise me if we ended up with a boom of emotionally unstable teenagers for us not to be able to cope with. I work I mental health services so have a fair idea of this kind of thing and we’re going to have to be very careful with this generation.

 

[AlgarveBlu]

Thanks for advice
It's very much a day by day thing at the moment. I run a lot but lots of days when i really wonder is it all worth it anymore. My dad died last year my mum died when I was 24. And now this horrible lockdown I just dont see the point anymore but I'll try and get myself in a better place.

there was a mental health thread on here before - let’s talk’ I think it was called and that had some very good advice from all sorts of seasoned posters. I would also try and limit your time on this thread (and the matchday thread) .

We will find a brighter day - hang in there.

 

[blue b4 the moon]

just doesn’t make sense. Most are half empty by that time anyway

It's just soundbites.

If I was going out on the piss I'd just go out a little earlier.

 

[Uncle Wally One Ball]

Thanks for advice
It's very much a day by day thing at the moment. I run a lot but lots of days when i really wonder is it all worth it anymore. My dad died last year my mum died when I was 24. And now this horrible lockdown I just dont see the point anymore but I'll try and get myself in a better place.

Look after yourself blue. It's good to talk!

 

[quiet_riot]

Well it is down to us. The yoof and young adults gave up on social distancing months ago.

Shortly after a top govt bloke broke all the rules and wasn't punished for it....

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

Shortly after a top govt bloke broke all the rules and wasn't punished for it....

Not defending Cummings, but people seemed to be behaving exactly how they liked and as if the virus had gone away long before that story broke. We are now reaping the rewards of those packed beaches during the spring bank holidays and the arseholes pissing it up in pubs all summer with little regard for anything except their own sense of entitlement.

 

[inbetween]

Not defending Cummings, but people seemed to be behaving exactly how they liked and as if the virus had gone away long before that story broke. We are now reaping the rewards of those packed beaches during the spring bank holidays and the arseholes pissing it up in pubs all summer with little regard for anything except their own sense of entitlement.

It's interesting that cases have only spiked in recent weeks and not when the pubs opened 3 months ago. It can't be correct that any recklessness in the summer is responsible for the rises now. The data from Public Health England (track and trace) shows that only around 4-5% of identified cases occurred in pubs/restaurants etc.

The real game changer has been the kids going back to schools and colleges, we all know full well they don't wear masks and they aren't social distancing. This is also backed up by the data which shows that most cases over the last few weeks are in the under 30's.

I also know personally that Italian kids don't go back to school until later in September and funnily enough their COVID cases are remaining relatively flat. Spain and France went back the same time we did.

I'd postpone school/college/university openings in spiking areas, bring teaching online and see how it affects the data for the next few weeks. I'd bet my house that cases fall or at least the rate increase will fall. You can prove this again by the areas in local measures who aren't seeing any reductions because the schools are open.