COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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mosssideblue said:
And those with health exemption, should they be refused entry to?
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Of course not, i didn't say that.
It's difficult with that though as i know plenty of people got those exemptions off the internet and there's fcuk all wrong with them, impossible to police i suppose, if someone wants to be a cnut, they'll be a cnut
 
BlueHammer85 said:
to be fair, i can never work out if the stats are concerning or not etc, your little analysis helps.
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It is always going to be a personal opinion though. And will vary day to day as I know my posts do in that regard. Because sometimes the data is better than others.

But I am no more an expert than anyone on here and I genuinely do not have an agenda. So I do not wish to cone across as soneone who does as I know can easily happen on forums. One reson I stay off much of social meda except chatting one to one with friends.

I have voted for three different parties in the last three elections as I choose on instinct and what they say not blind alliegence to any person or party.

No more likely to be right than wrong. But I don't do things based on profound beliefs of any kind.

Those on here who do know from PMs a little of what I have done for a living will know why I do not talk about it on here as it would imply the almost exact opposite and polarize opinion but in reality was why I was fairly successful in that career because I did not do belief and it was riddled with it at times.

So it can be hard on a forum with clear divided agenda's seeing merit on both sides but not wishing to play the game of choosing sides.

I started following the numbers so as I coud be guided by them not the media (who I have long known to distrust first hand) or those with a strong belief in either direction trying to persuade me.

I find it easier to listen and decide for myself than try to convice others what I think is right. AS in this situation particularly there are few absolutes and not really any clear rights and wrongs.
 
Thank you, EDs. I came here primarily for Gelson's Dad's work and was so disappointed when they left that I started seeking the same data myself. Truly I would not be doing this here now but for those who drove him off.
 
kaz7 said:
Of course it can , who says it doesnt , bacterial pneumonia general gets better with antibiotics unless you have a lung condition already or are old

Great tag team , very little knowledge or in denial though
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One or two people said that on this thread a few days back. Can i ask why are you offensive to anyone with an opposing view to your own?
 
England hospital deaths are up as they are on Tuesdays.

So you could read this rise as good or bad. It is a fairly modest rise it is fair to say. Though the NW gets the brunt again.

Last week it was 44 with 6 from previous day and 18 from the NW.

Today it is 50 with 7 from the day before and 23 from the NW. 17 from Yorkshire/NE. Midlands 5. London 4.

That split between NW/Yorks/NE and it being 10 times the level of London shows the huge north/south split in cases and hospitalisations and deaths right now.
 
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Healdplace said:
It is always going to be a personal opinion though. And will vary day to day as I know my posts do in that regard. Because sometimes the data is better than others.

But I am no more an expert than anyone on here and I genuinely do not have an agenda. So I do not wish to cone across as soneone who does as I know can easily happen on forums. One reson I stay off much of social meda except chatting one to one with friends.

I have voted for three different parties in the last three elections as I choose on instinct and what they say not blind alliegence to any person or party.

No more likely to be right than wrong. But I don't do things based on profound beliefs of any kind.

Those on here who do know from PMs a little of what I have done for a living will know why I do not talk about it on here as it would imply the almost exact opposite and polarize opinion but in reality was why I was fairly successful in that career because I did not do belief and it was riddled with it at times.

So it can be hard on a forum with clear divided agenda's seeing merit on both sides but not wishing to play the game of choosing sides.

I started following the numbers so as I coud be guided by them not the media (who I have long known to distrust first hand) or those with a strong belief in either direction trying to persuade me.

I find it easier to listen and decide for myself than try to convice others what I think is right. AS in this situation particularly there are few absolutes and not really any clear rights and wrongs.
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Please carry on with your great work. You do very well to be neutral when most of us are biased.
 
Churchlawtonblue said:
One or two people said that on this thread a few days back. Can i ask why are you offensive to anyone with an opposing view to your own?
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I am not trying to be offensive , the studies , the scientists , the covid facts from a personal view back up the facts i go by , people who dismiss covid post links that they cant have read as they dont back them up , i cant see the point in saying it is not as bad as march / april time and dismissing the reasons why , the 4 CMO 's here and experts in america say we are in a second wave , to dismiss it based on how it was the first time is silly , a red herring , the winter wave has started . I put people right using facts , it is not personal , cant say the same what i am gettig from 3 of you , very definately personal
 
bluejon said:
I really wasn't aiming that post at anyone on here. I'm currently producing a load of ROC analysis graphs for my own work, which use true/false positives etc, and it's made me laugh seeing twitter suddenly full of experts on this matter.
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You're not an expert on Viruses though are you you are a data analysis. It's never stopped you saying all the scientists are wrong.
 
Tim of the Oak said:
Does it matter?
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FYI I am intrigued as to whether or not healdplace is putting a negative narrative on the data he so precisely and clearly inputs everyday or as others think is just reporting the facts as they are? That particular sentence stood as somewhat misleading to me, in so far as it implied that the virus is much more widespread now than it was in April, when in fact it is the other way round?

One or two on here are clearly all consumed by covid and are possibly prepared to let anything and everything else be sacrificed if no one else were to die from covid. I just wasn't sure if healdplace was in that camp or on the edge of it. I have asked him a couple of times if he thought our response was proportionate, he has given me an informed polite answer while also avoiding the question.
 
Churchlawtonblue said:
FYI I am intrigued as to whether or not healdplace is putting a negative narrative on the data he so precisely and clearly inputs everyday or as others think is just reporting the facts as they are? That particular sentence stood as somewhat misleading to me, in so far as it implied that the virus is much more widespread now than it was in April, when in fact it is the other way round?

One or two on here are clearly all consumed by covid and are possibly prepared to let anything and everything else be sacrificed if no one else were to die from covid. I just wasn't sure if healdplace was in that camp or on the edge of it. I have asked him a couple of times if he thought our response was proportionate, he has given me an informed polite answer while also avoiding the question.
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She
 
everythingchangesbutblue said:
You're not an expert on Viruses though are you you are a data analysis. It's never stopped you saying all the scientists are wrong.
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Aye, because their analysis of the data is wrong and as an expert in medical data I'd like to think I've got a good grasp as to what I'm saying. And I have never said 'all' the scientists are wrong, I can point you in the direction of a great many scientists who I believe are getting it absolutely right.
 
lancs_since_lockdowns.png

here's a graph i whipped up on the hoof; imposition of local lockdowns in Lancashire Local Authorities (please inform me if I missed any off). I've cut the case data off at July 1st and it is 5th October data, cut off at Thursday 1st October. The red lines are the data from last week, before they added on the cases over the weekend. this is cases per 100,000 people in total, so the line can only ever be flat or on the incline.

what is going on? how do you want to interpret this? ;
*lockdowns do nothing
*scattered regional lockdowns do nothing
*people ignore lockdowns, to varying degrees
*we test more and more (i would argue test numbers have not increased enough since mid-September)
*people in Lancs are more inclined to get tested due to perceived risk (positive feedback loop)

dunno.
 
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England hospital deaths details:

5 Oct adds 7 = 7 after one day. (last Tuesday it was 6 added)

4 Oct adds 18 = 18 after two days. (last Tuesday it was 20 added to day 2 = 21)

3 Oct adds 15 = 29 after three days (last Tuesday it was 13 added to day 3 = 21)

2 Oct adds 8 = 36 after four days (last Tuesday it was 3 added to day 4 = 16)

1 Oct adds 2 = 39 (joint highest 5 day total since Junen- last Tuesday it was 1 added to day 5 = 18)

All 50 deaths occurred in these 5 days.
 
Churchlawtonblue said:
FYI I am intrigued as to whether or not healdplace is putting a negative narrative on the data he so precisely and clearly inputs everyday or as others think is just reporting the facts as they are? That particular sentence stood as somewhat misleading to me, in so far as it implied that the virus is much more widespread now than it was in April, when in fact it is the other way round?

One or two on here are clearly all consumed by covid and are possibly prepared to let anything and everything else be sacrificed if no one else were to die from covid. I just wasn't sure if healdplace was in that camp or on the edge of it. I have asked him a couple of times if he thought our response was proportionate, he has given me an informed polite answer while also avoiding the question.
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The fact you keep referring to her as a he tells me you don’t read the posts properly to start with.
 
kaz7 said:
I am not trying to be offensive , the studies , the scientists , the covid facts from a personal view back up the facts i go by , people who dismiss covid post links that they cant have read as they dont back them up , i cant see the point in saying it is not as bad as march / april time and dismissing the reasons why , the 4 CMO 's here and experts in america say we are in a second wave , to dismiss it based on how it was the first time is silly , a red herring , the winter wave has started . I put people right using facts , it is not personal , cant say the same what i am gettig from 3 of you , very definately personal
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I haven't said we are not in a second wave Karen, you must have got me confused with another poster. However, when I have posted links you have refused to read them in fact in one instance you said you didnt have time and you had moved on?
 
Churchlawtonblue said:
FYI I am intrigued as to whether or not healdplace is putting a negative narrative on the data he so precisely and clearly inputs everyday or as others think is just reporting the facts as they are? That particular sentence stood as somewhat misleading to me, in so far as it implied that the virus is much more widespread now than it was in April, when in fact it is the other way round?

One or two on here are clearly all consumed by covid and are possibly prepared to let anything and everything else be sacrificed if no one else were to die from covid. I just wasn't sure if healdplace was in that camp or on the edge of it. I have asked him a couple of times if he thought our response was proportionate, he has given me an informed polite answer while also avoiding the question.
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Healdplace is a woman whose comes across as neutral to me. She points out increases / decreases in cases, admissions, ventilated patients, deaths consistently IMHO. A professional statistician might not always mention the changes if the increases / decreases aren’t very big but she isn’t one and neither am I. That said, there are no clear increases in trends and we are in a 2nd wave (that fingers crossed won’t reach anywhere near the scale of the first wave).
 
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