COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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Healdplace said:
According to the media leaks of what Nicola Sturgeon will announce this afternoon are of a complete shut down of bars and pubs from 10 to 25 October. To put a brake on the rising cases in Scotland. But it might run for longer in the most impacted areas.
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Think that would be localised if she does, guess we'll see soon. Expecting the national restrictions to be no meeting other households indoors anywhere.
 
True_Blue69 said:
Who's fact check rat and how would they know? They only have a small number of followers could be anyone saying that.
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I saw this because it was commented on by the Editor of the Heskth Services Journal. If it’s wrong then we will soon know because the Comms Departments of all NHS Trusts will follow the HSJ.

The HSJ reported yesterday that there was 200 people rise in hospital admissions across Manchester so these patients have to go somewhere.

I wish it wasn’t true but the 2nd wave has arrived in Manchester (over the last week or so).
 
News apparently leaking ahead of the speech this afternoon is that Scotland has had over 1000 cases in past 24 hours. There were 640 this day last week. And 800 yesterday.
 
Tim of the Oak said:
This is a thorough analysis of what went wrong. It’s not hindsight because some NHS leaders have been warning about the outsourcing of pathology services for years.
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Thanks for posting this excellent piece. It squares up entirely with what I have been told by family members who are experts in the health sector plus friends who have inside knowledge of what is currently happening in government. Forget the politics this has been a catastrophe in the making for years. It's what happens when a country allows its infrastructure to decay and fall behind more modern nations.
 
ONS in Scotland announced a doybling of deaths in past week from 10 the previous week to 20 last week. Six were in care homes.
 
bobbyowenquiff said:
Thanks for posting this excellent piece. It squares up entirely with what I have been told by family members who are experts in the health sector plus friends who have inside knowledge of what is currently happening in government. Forget the politics this has been a catastrophe in the making for years. It's what happens when a country allows its infrastructure to decay and fall behind more modern nations.
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I agree I found that article makes a very plausible case for how and why we sleepwalked into where we are.

And by no means on our own globally either.

That excellent BBC documentary where they wargamed a pandemic two years ago made exactly the same kind of assumptions if I recall from watching it at the time.

I would take from it that the biggest mistake was not shutting down global travel pretty much instantly and the places where they had the foresight to do so fared better.

In the UK the way the Isle of Man managed and used its island status to restrict travel and made anyone breaking quarantine do it anyway in a cell for the two weeks contrastd with the you were naughty but we will let you off and please do not do it again approach and complete freedom to travel into the UK until it was way too late matches these conclusions too.

It would have been far harder to keep it out of mainland Britain than a timy island in the middle of the Irish Sea but we did not even try and that inevitably made things worse.
 
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Healdplace said:
I agree I found that article makes a very plausible case for how and why we sleepwalked into where we are.

And by no means on our own globally either.

That excellent BBC documentary where they wargamed a pandemic two years ago made exactly the same kind of assumptions if I recall from watching it at the time.
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I think the political scapegoating is getting in the way of finding a solution. The country needs to modernise urgently and not just in the health sector. Our government structure was built centuries ago and is not fit for purpose in the 21st Century.
We should have been able to manage this pandemic as many other countries have done with reasonable success. Everything here is just too slow. We can't make fast decisions.
Hundreds of buildings still have the same cladding as Grenville Towers for example. It's not just about investing money. We have to change the cultural mindset.
 
Scotland

1 death

1054 cases at 13.0%

319 in hospital up 57! and 28 on ventilators (up 3).

THere WILL be big restrictions coming I suspect given that.

Patients have gone up 101 in the past 48 hours.
 
hilts said:
I’m not really interested in how Sweden is doing in particular but London is playing on my mind, it doesn’t make sense to me and has me questioning the route we are taking.
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There are a number of factors that make London different to the rest of the country in my opinion, the main one being the tube - also probably one of the reasons why it spread so quickly in London initially.

For the majority of people in London it's essential to use the tube to get anywhere, including work. An office can be made as COVID secure as possible but there's still the issue of getting to the workplace whilst avoiding the tube. Because of the location (city centre, driving not an option) and also the nature (lots of office based workers, so capability to work from home) of many jobs in London, I suspect far less people returned to the workplace over Aug/Sept compared to the rest of the country.
 
Scotland week to week to week is pretty worrying:

2 deaths 2 weeks ago v 7 deaths last week v 1 death today (which is the good news)

486 cases 2 weeks ago v 640 cases last week v 1054 today

83 Patients 2 weeks ago v 137 last week v 319 today is for me - quadrupling in 14 days - a very steep increase (though I expect to hear it really isn't).

10 on Ventilators 2 weeks ago v 15 last week v 28 today is almost as bad, surely?

Yes I get that these are very low numbers. nowhere near where we were in April but for us not to be there in a month or so they will have to stop escalating. And we are only just heading into Winter. Very early to not be concerned I would say.
 
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www.itv.com

Covid: Government 'close to closing pubs and restaurants in northern England' | ITV News

We are at a critical moment in the second surge of coronavirus and minister may soon impose more severe restrictions on the worst-hit areas. | ITV National News
www.itv.com www.itv.com

Peston suggesting that it's likely hospitality venues will be closed in large parts of the North with an announcement potentially next week, and that they may be closed before any support schemes for the businesses affected are finalised...
 
It's obvious that a lot of the increases are in the university population many of whom don't appear to die or be hospitalised. However it's the fact that they are potentially then spreading it to older people that is the issue. Hospitality is where large groups gather hence the fact people think they are a scapegoat. Trying to cut down on the amount of time people spend in large groups has to be one way of trying to break the cycle hence why sporting events are behind closed doors. I can't see us back at the Etihad this season at this rate. People need to wise up and be sensible about where they go and what they do.
 
Blue Potato said:
There are a number of factors that make London different to the rest of the country in my opinion, the main one being the tube - also probably one of the reasons why it spread so quickly in London initially.

For the majority of people in London it's essential to use the tube to get anywhere, including work. An office can be made as COVID secure as possible but there's still the issue of getting to the workplace whilst avoiding the tube. Because of the location (city centre, driving not an option) and also the nature (lots of office based workers, so capability to work from home) of many jobs in London, I suspect far less people returned to the workplace over Aug/Sept compared to the rest of the country.
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I accept the reasons why it spread quick originally it seemed inevitable really. Just don't buy into the reasons why it didn't pick up again as quickly. I've heard the demographic reasons but I don't buy it. London isn't just full of office workers. It's has busy transport. Factories schools pubs idiots high density population etc

My gut feeling is the first wave helped stop/slow a rise second time round. If this is true protecting the vulnerable and allowing the rest to carry on might be worth at least looking into.

Could be completely wrong though.
 
Eds said:
It's obvious that a lot of the increases are in the university population many of whom don't appear to die or be hospitalised. However it's the fact that they are potentially then spreading it to older people that is the issue. Hospitality is where large groups gather hence the fact people think they are a scapegoat. Trying to cut down on the amount of time people spend in large groups has to be one way of trying to break the cycle hence why sporting events are behind closed doors. I can't see us back at the Etihad this season at this rate. People need to wise up and be sensible about where they go and what they do.
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I agree.

What we are seeing is a train wreck in slow motion. It is clearly spreading like wildfire amongst the young and careless. And whilst that will not in itself result in a huge increase in deaths - due to the very low levels of fatalities in a largely young and healthy demographic - this increased level of infection across society is inevitably going to seep through into the vulnerable demographic because they won't be able to isolate themselves from care-workers, family members doing the shopping for them, the paper boy, the window cleaner they pay every 6 weeks etc. All of whom are going to be infected in much larger numbers.

So we are going to see a big spike in deaths again in the over 60's, but it will take a few weeks for this to percolate through. For them to get infected, get ill, go into hospital, go into ICU and then die. It's probably 4 to 6 weeks from now that the idiotic behaviour of far too many people is going to be truly and horribly realised. There was a man, his wife and 3 kids swanning around Morrisons on Monday night for example, and none of them wearing a face mask. How the fuck is that allowed to happen.
 
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