COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[BlueAnorak]

According to this we're on a steeper trajectory than Italy and if we're going to have 14,000 more deaths over the next fortnight, we will be on a trajectory even more steeper than them whether the starting point is 1 death, 10 deaths or 50 deaths.

That graph is based on days since 10 deaths so we're slightly ahead. The government like to use days since 50 deaths that puts us slightly behind.

 

[meltonblue]

Yes, I’m totally on the side of the zoological cause...so if it’s biologically water tight that it’s a natural causation how on earth could it be conspiratorial? Doesn’t all those theories fall down immediately?

Just intrigued as there’s a fair bit doing the rounds.

Because the lines nowadays between fact and fiction are blurred more than ever before. Experts aren’t trusted (even on completely non political points), things with high internet hits are.

 

[kaz7]

KAREN!!!!! We did it until we didn't have capacity to do it anymore.

we had companies/science labs i think it was offering to do more but they weren't taken up on it,it wasn't a big priority at the start,concede that pretty please

 

[twosips]

https://www.vox.com/2020/4/9/21213472/coronavirus-sweden-herd-immunity-cases-death

Really interesting piece on Sweden's bold approach. They're starting to see a rise in deaths so it'll be fascinating to see if they keep on this path or not. Gut instinct is public pressure will kick in and they'll change their minds.

 

[BlueAnorak]

R0 could be as high as 6 according to some bloke in the US press briefing!!!

That would be good if true as it would mean a lot more people have had it without symptoms than we think.

 

[kaz7]

Meh, i'm drunk enough to concede something I guess........

grumble grumble grumble.........

Wahey i beat the mighty Gelson,pass me a beer x

 

[kaz7]

Looks like Europe gave it New York according to studies of the virus from different parts of the world

CNN

 

[Fame Monster]

Than them now or in 14 days after they had 8000 deaths?
I wouldn't sweat it mate. It will be what it will be.

Easier said than done though, I've probably got COVID-19 right now so I'm literally sweating it. I've also got two sisters who work in the NHS and other family members have likely got it but even if I didn't have it, it matters to me what we're doing about the situation and obviously as difficult as international comparisons can be, it's useful to look to see how other countries are faring in the same situation.

 

[somapop]

Along with the german report I linked this morning it could be very significant.
I've asked with no response of course, the modellers who are on twitter if they have looked and much higher R0s with much lower lethality's for a couple of weeks now. The reason is, that perhaps the lockdown measures haven't really done much and we are just seeing the virus burn out in Italy and Spain.
Now that would be miraculous.

which page is the report on mate?
Or could you please post it again?
Thanks.

 

[kaz7]

you can see here were it went to from where Karen: https://nextstrain.org/ncov/global

I remember the people who first presented in america had no links to china?
Am i seeing it went from australia to america on your link?