COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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shemnel said:
my slight worry is that even in France, Spain and Germany (some local areas excepted) they havent gone so hard on people meeting up in small groups. It feels in the UK we're being quite heavily targeted at a personal level
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I agree. Im not sure anywhere else in Europe has actually made it illegal to allow someone into your home.
 
7 deaths

1297 cases at 17.2% (new record)

419 Greater Glasgow, 337 Lanarkshire, 191 Lothian.

40 more in hospital in 24 hours to 527

35 on ventilators
 
The Light Was Yellow Sir said:
Just a random thought but wouldn’t we be better off spending some of this cash being thrown around on just making sure people self isolate as it seems that it’s only about 20% doing it? Locking down the infected, instead of going for blanket bans, mass unemployment, mass bankruptcies etc sounds much more likely to succeed. You’d keep workplaces open, pay the infected to stay at home and hopefully strike a balance between the two extreme position.
I know you need a fully functioning testing regime but here’s hoping....
Not only that but Sweden have gone to 7 days (from symptoms or +ve test, whichever is later) which seems eminently more doable than 2 weeks and are much more compliant.
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Agree with all that. We know that contact tracing isn’t working well enough but even if it was perfect, if only 20% are self-isolating properly it wouldn’t solve the problems. We need that figure to be significantly higher and support people to do that.
Also, are there any figures about how well the app is doing? All I’ve seen is how many have downloaded it but not how well it’s working. Can’t help feeling if it was a success we’d have heard about it.
 
Pablo1 said:
Difference being the result of not complying over here isn't just a pat on the back and a gentle reminder to try and do so next time.
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It's all very well people criticising( not necessarily on here) and calling the government wankers for these measures by my PoV would be the 'wankers' are the ones that can't keep their distance, think they're immune, think 'it's all very well but I need to have a social life', think that their ethnic norms mean that personal distancing shouldn't apply to them, think it's all a Gov't conspiracy to control the masses and crucially, think they can blame it on the very people that are giving them credit for having the intelligence to behave responsibly. If it wasn't for the ones that think 'it doesn't apply to them', we'd be in a much better position than we are. If that means Boris et. al. are 'wankers' for putting trust in the whole of the GB population when it's clear that a vocal minority shouldn't be trusted to dress themselves, let alone try not to contract & spread a virus, then the word needs to be redefined.
 
DazWA9 said:
It's all very well people criticising( not necessarily on here) and calling the government wankers for these measures by my PoV would be the 'wankers' are the ones that can't keep their distance, think they're immune, think 'it's all very well but I need to have a social life', think that their ethnic norms mean that personal distancing shouldn't apply to them, think it's all a Gov't conspiracy to control the masses and crucially, think they can blame it on the very people that are giving them credit for having the intelligence to behave responsibly. If it wasn't for the ones that think 'it doesn't apply to them', we'd be in a much better position than we are. If that means Boris et. al. are 'wankers' for putting trust in the whole of the GB population when it's clear that a vocal minority shouldn't be trusted to dress themselves, let alone try not to contract & spread a virus, then the word needs to be redefined.
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The answer to that is, like the answer to most questions, that people are cunts.
As long as there is a human race it'll never change.
Not all, obviously, but a large majority. There is a sliding scale of cuntishness and its usually in times of hardship where it comes to the fore.
 
i8rags said:
It’s a pandemic, no guideline for this
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I appreciate that, but there has been time for them to be a lot more structured in the communication of their plan. This isn't a matter of Boris sat in an office making this up, he will have advisors and teams working on a 2nd wave scenario for months and if this is their best effort I feel underwelmed with the result.
 
Scotland week to week to week :

2wks ago v last week v today

deaths 0 v 2 v 7

cases 806 v 800 v 1297

Test % 11.5% v 13.1% v 17.2%

In hospital 123 v 262 v 527

Ventilators 14 v 25 v 35
 
cleavers said:
New Zealand have only done a great job until a vaccine can be proved to work, and can eliminate the virus. Until then, all they are doing is being good at keeping it out, and fair play for that, but they are in a far better position than we are/were.

If they want to ever return to normality, and start visiting the rest of the world, and have the rest of the world visit them, they will have to reopen, and unless the virus has been eradicated it will inevitably get back in. It's summer there now (or soon) so that helps, but after every summer, winter follows, so lets see where they are in 6 months time.
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Yes, they are no guaranteeing will be as successful in the future and like everywhere else improved medication and hopefully a virus are likely to be important to a long term solution.

Did you see the Haka being performed in a packed stadium the other day? I think they are very close to normality and international travel
Is mainly for the benefit of foreign tourists, as well as the NZ tourist industry.
 
I do wish that the scientists could have one big super meeting and come to one proper decision on the right way forward. Air out all their opinions. There are too many wanting to argue their own view as the only truth. Find a concensus. Please.

It looks right now as if we could have done something 3/4 weeks ago to slow this further had we taken swifter action - the 2 week circuit braker. And scientists were pushing this but the lack of consensus preveted it being done. As it was easier to take the least expensive and people friendly option.

But then this list mirrored that split position too of how science was advising government. And, of course, the unavoidable battle between balancing economylivelihoods/freedoms and rising cases/fear of hospital pressures/deaths.

You in effect either choose a strategy and upset half the country by doing so and have half the scientists telling you you are wrong or you create a fudged compromise that is the worst of both worlds. And we do that way too often in the UK.

On here a week or two ago we had educated and reasonable people telling us with authority and experience that those of us concerned by the rising numbers were over reacting and there was no sign of a second wave or anything seriously to worry about I started to doubt what I was seeing in the data too. As it was what we all WANT to see.

Though the numbers were starting to look scary.

And, of course, we all naturally want the best case scenario to be proven right and not the possibility of doom and gloom for so many reasons.

But erring on the side of caution in a global pandemic strikes me as the number one priority. Because we seem to have seen now twice the consequences of dithering, delay and prevaraction over what to do in the national interest.

I understand why it happened. Have great sympathy with those charged with juggling the impossible and having to decide. But decisiveness and not fudge is essential from lradership in a war.

The simple fact is if you gamble on one side being right and not the other and pick the wrong side. You lose. If you hedge your bets and delay then introduce a fudge that does neither in a fast moving pandemic. You lose. You basically have to choose the right side and act on it. Or if you cannot decide which is right you choose the option where you stand to lose the least.

Because you get it wrong - as it is starting to look like we may well have done again here - and you do not save the ecomony as you have opted to prioritise - you likely codemn it to another catastrophic long lockdown.

You just have to assume the worst may happen if half your scientists are telling you that and go in fast and try to contain it - hoping it will mitigate the length and extent of the restrictions rather than put them off and make them worse when you end up doing so anyway.

Something we have seemingly failed to do twice now in this pandemic. And unless we are very lucky and things do indeed turn out better than right now it seems like we are starting to head towards (and they still might) - then trying to play both things against the other may end up with us left with the worst of all possible outcomes.

Let us hope not.
 
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Derry in Northern Ireland is the most infected place in the UK right now. With 1643 cases in the past week and a Pop score rise of 967 in the week. Showing how huge those cases are judged v the different local populations.

The others in the top 10 are: Cases / Pop Score weekly number

2 Nottingham 2468 / 741

3 knowsley 923 / 611

4 Liverpool 2868 / 575

5 Newcastle 1415 / 467

6 Burnley 403 / 453

7 Belfast 1554 / 452

8 Sefton 1133 / 409

9: Manchester 2254 / 407

10 Mid Ulster 523 / 385


As you can see Manchester is the only GM borough there and has dropped from top down the list steadily all week.

Also notice the big outbreak in Northern Ireand has started to dominate and the three Merseyside areas that show why it is in a worse state than GM right now.

I will post an up to date GM ten boroughs list this evening updated with todays figures so you can see how they compare with this top 10 in UK.
 
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An 89 year old woman in the Netherlands with a compromised immune system has become the first person who got over Covid, was discharged, seems to have caught it again and sadly now died.
 
You need to be sat down before reading on.....

England hospital deaths today 87 - 41 of them from the North West. Up from 50 and 23 NW last week.

By some distance the worst yet and clear evidence these new measures came far too late. And I fear full lockdown is now starting to look inevitable.

But instead the government are writing to all those who they asked to shield in the original lockdown telling them they have no need to bother this winter.

Is it just me or does this feel increasingly less like the real world than this week's Spitting Image episode?
 
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True_Blue69 said:
And there we go. Right wing, left wing or middle they are still more qualified than you or I, but you dismiss them due to your own beliefs on it and refuse to consider anything else. There are lots of scientists sat on either side of the fence and the ones that are against lockdowns are not all right wing and those that are pro-lockdown are not all left wing. Maybe they believe their scientific views and don't base this on their political leaning?
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Sure they're more qualified than me. But they're not more qualified than the rest of the scientific community, who largely disagree - there are NOT lots of scientists either side of the fence. This is not a reason to dismiss them, but a reason to be cautious of their message.

Next, they don't publish in a scientific journal, but rather make a declaration sponsored by a right wing think tank. Now this is a reason to be *highly* cautious of them, not because they're right wing, but because they're political. In the same way, a supposedly scientific declaration under the auspices of the socialist international would meet with scepticism.

And I have no idea what you mean by "pro-lockdown". The general scientific consensus has been to suppress and use test track and trace to minimise socio-economic impact, just for instance here in a WHO strategy document dated *14th April*. Nothing has changed since - nobody wants to stay in lockdowns.

www.who.int

COVID‑19 strategy update - 14 April 2020

COVID‑19 strategic preparedness and response
www.who.int www.who.int

Expert response to Great Barrington here
 
England hospital data. Some record numbers as you will expect:

12 Oct adds 15 = 15 after one day. Highest first day total since 8 June. (Note how these dates keep going backwards)

11 Oct adds 39 = 46 after two days. Highest second day total since 10 June. Highest 2nd day add on since 3 June.

10 Oct adds 17 = 45 after three days.

9 Oct adds 9 = 34 after four days.

8 Oct adds 5 = 51 after five days.

7 Oct adds 1 to equal 56 and 6 Oct adds 1 to = 46.

No need to add much except this list of the 5 day totals over the past 2 weeks:

19, 29, 32, 36, 32, 39, 39, 41, 34, 33, 45, 55, 51.
 
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