I haven’t a clue because all my family live in Urmston/Flixton and say barely anyone is following the rules.
How well a place like Trafford is doing is relative and hard to judge just on the sheer numbers.
Trafford and Stockport are pretty much neck and neck on all the measures as best in GM much of the time but will have very different socio economic profiles - though share big shopping focal points that people from around GM visit.
They were the only two boroughs in August who were give the chance not to go in restrictions.
They are the only ones still in the 2000s in the population score for GM. They nearly always have the lowest numbers and the lowest Pop scores. And the best weekly total. Though right now Trafford is outperforming Stockport both are currently ahead of the rest in GM.
Despite it always looking as if Trafford has lower numbers. As it usually does.
But Trafford is smaller than Stockport in population so you would expect maybe a fifth more cases in Stockport than in Trafford.
So if Stockport has 200 cases one day it would go up by the same pop score as Trafford if it got about 160.
So if they score roughly the same even though Trafford may have a slightly lower number of cases one day it may actually have pro rata had a worse day than Stockport and so its Pop Score will rise by the most.
You will notice that it is common for Stockport to have the lowest Pop Score rise and Trafford the lowest cases each day. That is why this happens and similar things occur for other towns. Both factors are telling you different things. Just going off the case numbers is always going to be a little misleading.
When Wigan beat Manchester by 1 case a few days ago it was a shock and Wigan's Pop score rose nearly twice as much as Manchester's despite having near identical case numbers. The reason being Manchester has about twuce as many people living there than Wigan borough. So Wigan getting near identical numbers to Manchester is a big deal and is actually twice as bad as Manchester getting the same number.
This is why the pop score is what the government use to define how well anywhere is doing day to day not how many cases it has day to day. That matters, of course, but without taking the Pop Score as the driver and how it changes day to day you cannot judge who is really doing well or is in trouble.
That's why I give both.
Knowsley for example was the worst place in Britain a few weeks ago and had Pop Scores rising by about 120 a day despite 'only' getting the same kind of numbers as Trafford did today (160 or so at Knowsley's peak).
Today Knowsley had under 100 cases - well below both Trafford and Stockport - but its Pop score went up by more than either of them because it should have had a lot fewer due to its small population. Roughly half of Stockport at 149,000.
I know it is hard to take all this in. It took me a while. And we do need to try to understand why Trafford is doing well and Wigan or Oldham the opposite. But the raw case numbers day to day are not a particularly good guide. Why I have started doing a daily table of how the boroughs Pop Scores are changing day to day across the week. A much easier way to see who is doing well and if they are getting better or worse.
www.theguardian.com