Another new Brexit thread

[mancity2012_eamo]

Who would have thought a Biden victory would have meant a punishment beating for the UK?

Is it too late to apologise to Biden for leaving the EU and upsetting Dublin?

Hi.
Dublin here.
No problem with you guys leaving. Just in Irish terms, don’t do a Trump and wreck everything on your way out.

 

[BobKowalski]

Who would have thought a Biden victory would have meant a punishment beating for the UK?

Is it too late to apologise to Biden for leaving the EU and upsetting Dublin?

It won’t. But it does harden the existing external pressure on the UK. A rift with the EU in a no deal scenario or repudiation of the Withdrawal Agreement by the UK and negative impact on Ireland or the NI border will also cause a rift with the Biden administration and being on the outside with both the EU and US power blocs will not be where the UK wants to be.

To be on the outside of one is unfortunate, to be on the outside of two starts to look like carelessness.

 

[blueinsa]

Hi.
Dublin here.
No problem with you guys leaving. Just in Irish terms, don’t do a Trump and wreck everything on your way out.

Dublin and London are as one with regards the border. It won't ever be a hard border and both will want to ensure trade continues very much like it does now.

What we (UK) can't do is say whether Dublin will be pressured into something by Brussels/Washington. That's for you guys to debate but I very much doubt it and like the vast majority of scare stories this last 4 years, this will also fade away.

 

[blueinsa]

It won’t

I know.

 

[dave_blue12]

It won’t. But it does harden the existing external pressure on the UK. A rift with the EU in a no deal scenario or repudiation of the Withdrawal Agreement by the UK and negative impact on Ireland or the NI border will also cause a rift with the Biden administration and being on the outside with both the EU and US power blocs will not be where the UK wants to be.

To be on the outside of one is unfortunate, to be on the outside of two starts to look like carelessness.

It's going to be fascinating watching how Johnson reconciles the irreconcilable over the coming weeks.

For me Biden's election adds a twist to the situation but is not central.

Brexit was always the road to nowhere but Johnson didn't care as it got him what he craved. Well, the end of the road is now in sight with no solution visible.

My guess is that we will continue to align with the EU amidst a mighty fudge of declaring victory.

And just like Trumpers most Brexiteers will swallow it. It's what they do.

 

[west didsblue]

It won’t. But it does harden the existing external pressure on the UK. A rift with the EU in a no deal scenario or repudiation of the Withdrawal Agreement by the UK and negative impact on Ireland or the NI border will also cause a rift with the Biden administration and being on the outside with both the EU and US power blocs will not be where the UK wants to be.

To be on the outside of one is unfortunate, to be on the outside of two starts to look like carelessness.

There’s always China;-)

 

[west didsblue]

It's going to be fascinating watching how Johnson reconciles the irreconcilable over the coming weeks.

For me Biden's election adds a twist to the situation but is not central.

Brexit was always the road to nowhere but Johnson didn't care as it got him what he craved. Well, the end of the road is now in sight with no solution visible.

My guess is that we will continue to align with the EU amidst a mighty fudge of declaring victory.

And just like Trumpers most Brexiteers will swallow it. It's what they do.

No I think Johnson was desperately hoping for a Trump win which would have been sufficient to muddy the waters about a future US trade deal and make it easier to sell his EU hard line. That’s gone now and he’s between a rock and a hard place.

 

[BobKowalski]

I know.

Then why mention it? Biden has a view on Ireland and Britain that matters. Biden and his team associate Johnson and Brexit with Trump, Cummings with Bannon. They also took offence over Johnson and his comments on Obama.

Equally, Biden and his team will want to build bridges with long standing allies which includes the UK, but also means they will want allies not at each other’s throats which means the UK keeping in line with the EU and not making life difficult for everyone, or as @mancity2012_eamo put it, ‘don’t wreck everything on the way out’, because if we do the Biden Admin will not be in our corner.

 

[yerwot?]

" That’s gone now and he’s between a rock and a hard place."
like the country, then....

 

[dave_blue12]

No I think Johnson was desperately hoping for a Trump win which would have been sufficient to muddy the waters about a future US trade deal and make it easier to sell his EU hard line. That’s gone now and he’s between a rock and a hard place.

We'll have to agree to disagree on this one.

For me an agreement with the US was always too problematic for the UK regardless of who is President.

The illusion of a FTA with the US was part of the lie of Brexit, along with all the other wonderful deals we would be free to do once free of the shackles of the EU.

 

[BobKowalski]

No I think Johnson was desperately hoping for a Trump win which would have been sufficient to muddy the waters about a future US trade deal and make it easier to sell his EU hard line. That’s gone now and he’s between a rock and a hard place.

Yeah, Johnson would have seen advantages in a Trump win as it would have put added pressure on EU leaders. Four more years of batshit lunacy would have unsettled them as it pointed to more uncertainty. A Biden win gives them more confidence going forward, Biden means the old dependable USA is back for the next four years at least and flips the pressure back onto the UK to keep in line as it where.

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

Yeah, Johnson would have seen advantages in a Trump win as it would have put added pressure on EU leaders. Four more years of batshit lunacy would have unsettled them as it pointed to more uncertainty. A Biden win gives them more confidence going forward, Biden means the old dependable USA is back for the next four years at least and flips the pressure back onto the UK to keep in line as it where.

I can't see any evidence of this beyond your own wishful thinking tbh. Unless the US impose trade sanctions on the UK for breach of the GFA trade will continue exactly as it does now in January - no trade deal.

 

[west didsblue]

We'll have to agree to disagree on this one.

For me an agreement with the US was always too problematic for the UK regardless of who is President.

The illusion of a FTA with the US was part of the lie of Brexit, along with all the other wonderful deals we would be free to do once free of the shackles of the EU.

I agree with you. A trade deal wouldn’t have happened even with Trump there, but Johnson would have been able to maintain the illusion that one was a real possibility, hence my comment about muddying the waters.

 

[dave_blue12]

I agree with you. A trade deal wouldn’t have happened even with Trump there, but Johnson would have been able to maintain the illusion that one was a real possibility, hence my comment about muddying the waters.

It seems we agree after all !

The end of the road is fast approaching and no illusory deal is going to help Johnson. The rock and the hard place are closing ever tighter and no amount of rhetoric will change the realities.

That's why I see Biden's election as a 'twist' for the UK Government, albeit an unwelcome and uncomfortable twist. It definitely adds to the pressure on Johnson and chums and I'm delighted he has won.

For me Johnson and Trump are two cheeks of the same arse.

 

[blueinsa]

Then why mention it? Biden has a view on Ireland and Britain that matters. Biden and his team associate Johnson and Brexit with Trump, Cummings with Bannon. They also took offence over Johnson and his comments on Obama.

Equally, Biden and his team will want to build bridges with long standing allies which includes the UK, but also means they will want allies not at each other’s throats which means the UK keeping in line with the EU and not making life difficult for everyone, or as @mancity2012_eamo put it, ‘don’t wreck everything on the way out’, because if we do the Biden Admin will not be in our corner.

I mention it because your imagination is creating your dream scenario in which we get punished by Biden and the States for leaving the EU. He isnt even in the job yet but its clear you are desperate for him to somehow ride to the rescue of both Dublin and Brussels and that we will somehow capitulate to their every demand.

We have left the EU. As for the 1st Jan we really have left the EU and whatever Biden says once he starts his presidency will be a bit of an afterthought although i doubt very much he will do what you want and punish us for leaving the EU.

I will add, the sudden appreciation of foreign political involvement and influence in our democratic process does make me smile ;-)

 

[Vic]

It won’t. But it does harden the existing external pressure on the UK. A rift with the EU in a no deal scenario or repudiation of the Withdrawal Agreement by the UK and negative impact on Ireland or the NI border will also cause a rift with the Biden administration and being on the outside with both the EU and US power blocs will not be where the UK wants to be.

To be on the outside of one is unfortunate, to be on the outside of two starts to look like carelessness.

We're going to get handbagged.

 

[west didsblue]

I mention it because your imagination is creating your dream scenario in which we get punished by Biden and the States for leaving the EU. He isnt even in the job yet but its clear you are desperate for him to somehow ride to the rescue of both Dublin and Brussels and that we will somehow capitulate to their every demand.

We have left the EU. As for the 1st Jan we really have left the EU and whatever Biden says once he starts his presidency will be a bit of an afterthought although i doubt very much he will do what you want and punish us for leaving the EU.

I will add, the sudden appreciation of foreign political involvement and influence in our democratic process does make me smile ;-)

You think Dublin and Brussels need rescuing?
Really?

 

[BobKowalski]

I mention it because your imagination is creating your dream scenario in which we get punished by Biden and the States for leaving the EU. He isnt even in the job yet but its clear you are desperate for him to somehow ride to the rescue of both Dublin and Brussels and that we will somehow capitulate to their every demand.

We have left the EU. As for the 1st Jan we really have left the EU and whatever Biden says once he starts his presidency will be a bit of an afterthought although i doubt very much he will do what you want and punish us for leaving the EU.

I will add, the sudden appreciation of foreign political involvement and influence in our democratic process does make me smile ;-)

That is incorrect. Biden is just an additional pressure on the UK to go alongside all the other pressures that squeeze us into a particular direction. No one is ‘punishing us’, we are just pointing out the political environment that we operate in and how it potentially shapes our approach and thinking.

The same is true of the EU. A Biden administration is a much friendly environment for them to operate in than a Trump administration. The E27 leaders, save for Poland and Hungary, will be more bullish with Biden as President.

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

That is incorrect. Biden is just an additional pressure on the UK to go alongside all the other pressures that squeeze us into a particular direction. No one is ‘punishing us’, we are just pointing out the political environment that we operate in and how it potentially shapes our approach and thinking.

The same is true of the EU. A Biden administration is a much friendly environment for them to operate in than a Trump administration. The E27 leaders, save for Poland and Hungary, will be more bullish with Biden as President.

You may be right, but in what tangible way do you expect Biden to alter or influence the course of brexit negotiations prior to the conclusion of everything on Dec 31st? We're already expecting a no deal based upon the current stalemate, so it's hard to see how a further hardening of the EU will matter unless you mean some sort of international sanctions / blockade of UK trade? I don't think this will happen - construction work has not even started on the Irish border yet.

 

[BobKowalski]

You may be right, but in what tangible way do you expect Biden to alter or influence the course of brexit negotiations prior to the conclusion of everything on Dec 31st? We're already expecting a no deal based upon the current stalemate, so it's hard to see how a further hardening of the EU will matter unless you mean some sort of international sanctions / blockade of UK trade? I don't think this will happen - construction work has not even started on the Irish border yet.

I expect it to put additional pressure on the current stalemate over LPF and fish. In a no deal outcome then the WA and NI protocols still apply. If we start backtracking on those signed commitments, and put Dublin in a difficult position on the land border, that is where it will get difficult for the UK. Alienating our closest neighbours and what we like to think of as our ‘greatest ally’ against a backdrop of a pandemic is not the place we want to be.

The other factor is that the UK is not of greater or lesser importance to the US than Germany or France. The US under Biden will want good relations with all these countries and see the EU as an important part of that relationship. Biden regards Brexit as a mistake, but a Brexit that does not disrupt the EU or Dublin or cause any waves is not going to be a problem. In short, Brexit if you must, it’s your funeral after all, just behave yourselves while you do it.