COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[kaz7]

Interesting information on Long Covid.

estimages of currently being 300k long haulers in the UK alone so far.

Notes that a lot of this is from a pre release document but from very established scientists.

half of all asymptomatic cases tests still have LIVING virus in there intestines 3+ months post infection. he summerises this could be the same for Long Covid suffereres.

there is a lot more details in there about how the virus infects some cells that could be causing the long covid.

not had chance to finish the video yet but what Ive seen is very interesting.

very interesting , thank you

My CT will see what actual damage there is

I have had ME for 25 yrs and i also have CRP in my bad hand , no wonder i have copped long covid. Nice to have it explained, not with standing actual lung damage, what he explains makes things become clearer

 

[Healdplace]

It seems after some weeks of restrictions Scotland have reached a plateau around 1200 cases, N Ireland at about 600 and Wales at about 900. England, if a plateau is true here too, seem to be at around 20,000 cases. Leading to the number for the UK of around 23,000 cases per day.

This is reasonably in line with population density for each nation so not suggesting anyone doing great and others terribly here.

Given the reductions seen this is - I would think - likely down from around 40,000 cases a day that we might be having if no attempt to curb had been applied.

Though, of course, it might have been higher as we do not know if the increase would have accelerated if left to itself.

And we may just be 'flattening the curve' here and face months of these kinds of numbers.

Will that be enough to keep death numbers in check as winter sets in?

That is the ultimate thing that will drive if we need to go further or for longer in lockdowns.

It has reached 500 + per day quite rapidly and how the restrictions imposed are only just impacting that number may just be starting to filter through. However - they are not going to easily fall lower than these totals as winter sets in and that natural rise in respiratory illnesses offsets the lowering impact of restrictions.

Will society tolerate an ongoing level of 15,000 deaths a month for the next 3/4 months? Pushing us towards or over 100,000 ascribed to Covid by the anniversary of the first cases?

Vaccines are unlikely to stop that until the Spring. They may save us from a third wave. But not dramatically mitigate the impact of wave 2.

 

[lancs blue]

I think the Pfizer news has been tempered by the costs differences (£29 to AZ's £2) and the distribution (or perceived lack of) to third world countries (vaccine nationalism). Also the fact they haven't joined Covax (as yet).

Is is just Pfizer that are the baddies amongst the rest?

Well this news item in today's Times online (paywall) didn't help my view of Pfizer. I'm sure it's legal but it seems very cynical of the CEO to take his profits so quickly.

Pfizer chief Albert Bourla sold $5.6m of shares as Covid-19 vaccine breakthrough was revealed

The chief executive of Pfizer sold almost two thirds of his shares in the drugs company for $5.6 million on the same day that it announced a breakthrough on its

www.thetimes.co.uk

 

[shemnel]

To be fair, track and trace and testing etc can help a bit when done properly. Just seen a real world example myself. My best friend and his partner are both avid gym goers and were both working in offices. His missus got a track and trace notification about being in contact with someone with covid.

She said initially she was a bit frustrated as she thought she'd be fine and was disappointed that she couldn't be up and about, working in the office, going gym etc, but she stayed at home - my mate decided to stay at home too... thankfully they did as a few days later they both came down with it. Both had a test. Positive. Both felt like shite for a couple of weeks, but both thankfully okay now.

I was speaking to them last night and they said tbh it was a good job track and trace actually worked for them as they would have gone to a couple more gym classes each, gone into offices, restaurants etc. Almost certainly spread it onto people. My mate's dad has a serious disability too so he simply has to pop around and help him sometimes. He could have seen him or anything.

Now the T&T has been a bit of a shambles, but it's obvious that when it works it can be very very useful. I don't think its a stretch to say that they could have inadvertently passed it on to loads of people, potentially killing someone, if they hadn't been gotten in touch with. I can imagine there's a very similar principle for the mass testing too. I agree its flawed, but there are clear potential benefits too.

should you ever force someone into quarantine if you arent sure they're a public health liability?

and is covid a big enough liability going forward to place someone under near house arrest?

edit: these being points more directed towards the new year, not the beginning of the epidemic

 

[Alan Harper's Tash]

I certainly wont be taking a vaccine. I will never put anything into my body that is not 100% safe.

I was speaking to my drug dealer the other day about this and he completely agrees.

Maybe the government needs to do a deal with Mr Escobar and add the vaccine to coke and ket.

That should encompass many of the antivaxxers.

 

[Healdplace]

145, 000 new cases in the US yesterday.

 

[Phil1]

Maybe the government needs to do a deal with Mr Escobar and add the vaccine to coke and ket.

That should encompass many of the antivaxxers.

There would be no room for the actual cocaine if anything else was added!!

 

[Healdplace]

Sadly another bad day in England.

Hospital deaths 317 v 236 last week. Bigger pro rata rise than last week.

90 from NW, 80 from Yorks and 74 MIdlands.

 

[Millwallawayveteran1988]

Clearly we are not in a great place currently and I really hope this vaccine news doesn’t make people just completely go hung ho once the lockdown ends. I fear many will though.

 

[Healdplace]

England hospital deaths 3 wks ago v 2 wks v last wk v today

152/ 60 NW v 192 / 73 NW v 236 / 100 NW v 317 / 90 NW today

Disappointing to see the increase in death rate up for the first time week to week.

NW still the worst impacted also weeks on - though Yorks & Midlands are closing in. And NW pro rata death rate IS clearly falling as you can see.

 

[purplenose]

Clearly we are not in a great place currently and I really hope this vaccine news doesn’t make people just completely go hung ho once the lockdown ends. I fear many will though.

Some will I am afraid, more so with the insanity that decrees Xmas is more important than life and death itself.

There will be others like myself who will be doing all I can to avoid any of it until I can get the jab.

 

[Marvin]

Moderna triggered their efficacy test. That's another hurdle negotiated towards another vaccine.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Moderna triggered their efficacy test. That's another hurdle negotiated towards another vaccine.

From their press release


Moderna has seen a significant increase in the rate of case identification across sites in the last week. As a result, the Company expects the first interim analysis will include substantially more than 53 cases, the targeted trigger point for the analysis. The data on these cases is being prepared for submission to the independent Data Safety Monitoring Board (DSMB) for analysis and recommendation. Moderna remains blinded to whether these participants received vaccine or placebo.

On October 22, the Phase 3 COVE study of mRNA-1273 completed enrollment of 30,000 participants in the U.S. The randomized, 1:1 placebo-controlled Phase 3 trial is studying mRNA-1273 at the 100 µg dose. The primary endpoint is the prevention of symptomatic COVID-19 disease. Key secondary endpoints include prevention of severe COVID-19 disease and prevention of infection by SARS-CoV-2. The ClinicalTrials.gov identifier is NCT04470427.

Moderna Has Completed Case Accrual for First Planned Interim Analysis of its mRNA Vaccine Against COVID-19 (mRNA-1273) | Moderna, Inc.

Acceleration in rate of COVID-19 disease across trial sites; Company expects more than 53 cases will be submitted to Data Safety Monitoring Board for the first interim analysis CAMBRIDGE, Mass. --(BUSINESS WIRE)--Nov. 11, 2020-- Moderna, Inc. , (Nasdaq: MRNA) a biotechnology company pioneering

investors.modernatx.com

 

[Healdplace]

Wales - sadly another bad day.

34 deaths and 867 cases from 8734 tests.

3 wks v 2 wks v last wk v today

deaths 7 v 21 v 30 v 34 today

cases 1134 v 1375 v 1272 v 867 today

Though evidence of slow down caused by circuit breaker perhaps

 

[03 March 2002]

From their press release


Moderna has seen a significant increase in the rate of case identification across sites in the last week. As a result, the Company expects the first interim analysis will include substantially more than 53 cases, the targeted trigger point for the analysis. The data on these cases is being prepared for submission to the independent Data Safety Monitoring Board (DSMB) for analysis and recommendation. Moderna remains blinded to whether these participants received vaccine or placebo.

On October 22, the Phase 3 COVE study of mRNA-1273 completed enrollment of 30,000 participants in the U.S. The randomized, 1:1 placebo-controlled Phase 3 trial is studying mRNA-1273 at the 100 µg dose. The primary endpoint is the prevention of symptomatic COVID-19 disease. Key secondary endpoints include prevention of severe COVID-19 disease and prevention of infection by SARS-CoV-2. The ClinicalTrials.gov identifier is NCT04470427.

Moderna Has Completed Case Accrual for First Planned Interim Analysis of its mRNA Vaccine Against COVID-19 (mRNA-1273) | Moderna, Inc.

Acceleration in rate of COVID-19 disease across trial sites; Company expects more than 53 cases will be submitted to Data Safety Monitoring Board for the first interim analysis CAMBRIDGE, Mass. --(BUSINESS WIRE)--Nov. 11, 2020-- Moderna, Inc. , (Nasdaq: MRNA) a biotechnology company pioneering

investors.modernatx.com

This is basically the equivalent of opening the oven door to check on your food. Could be done, might need a few more weeks.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

This is basically the equivalent of opening the oven door to check on your food. Could be done, might need a few more weeks.

I was surprised to see the announcement. I guess it was deemed share price sensitive.

But given the general pace and urgency, I'd expect to see these results in days rather than weeks, and given just *how* good the Pfizer one is, we should know if it's in the ballpark or not.

Pfizer critical path to submission is safety rather than efficacy, I don't know for Moderna.

I think the technology is very similar to Pfizers - same concept?

 

[Healdplace]

Northern Ireland data:

Another high with 15 deaths

548 cases

435 in hospital (down 6)

30 on ventilators (down 5).

The 7 day rolling case total is happily down after going up yesterday for the first time in weeks.

At 3835 - down from 3886 - but still higher than the 3736 of two days ago

The age range of the 3835 cases are:.
0 - 19 (431), 20 - 39 (1310), 40 - 59 (1176), 60 - 79 (593), 80 + (324)

Care homes with outbreaks up again to 144,

 

[03 March 2002]

I was surprised to see the announcement. I guess it was deemed share price sensitive.

But given the general pace and urgency, I'd expect to see these results in days rather than weeks, and given just *how* good the Pfizer one is, we should know if it's in the ballpark or not.

Pfizer critical path to submission is safety rather than efficacy, I don't know for Moderna.

I think the technology is very similar to Pfizers - same concept?

Yeah, both RNA mechanisms. Not sure about encapsulation of Moderna though!

Interestingly I think I read that Moderna's dose is significantly higher than Pfizer's? Could have implications on safety more so than efficacy?

 

[ayrshire_blue]

Scotland cases today

169 people aged 65+
43 of whom are 85+

103 children under 15
27 of whom are under 5

187 aged 15-24

753 aged 25-64


***Deaths***

13 aged 85+
21 aged 75-84
8 aged 65-74
3 aged 45-64


I may just do these figures weekly from now on. 1) because the entire situation is becoming increasinly depressing and 2) there's not much fluctuation in daily figures which make a really noticeable difference, at least as far as I can tell anyway.

Keep safe folks.

 

[SPIDERBOY]

My lad got his test result back about 10 minutes ago....positive.
No fever,no flu like symptoms,could smell,but couldn't taste,in pain with his back and can hardly open his mouth ,his jaw is that sore?
I've not heard that one before?