COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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west didsblue said:
Is this lockdown actually doing anything? The only difference to tier 3 seems to be pubs and some shops are shut although quite a few seem to be getting round it. Traffic levels seem to be unchanged. What really is the point? It’s nothing like the March/April lockdown.
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It's so the government can say "we tried but look it's all your fault" when they announce we aren't allowed to be alive at Christmas.
 
FantasyIreland said:
I honestly cant see what it is that is meant to be working? I went to Urmston this morning to get some shopping and every shop was open,and packed,people were carrying on like any other Saturday.

This isn't a lockdown by any stretch of the imagination.
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What kind of shops were open??

Nothing open here in Rammy, bar the food shops.
 
Still figuring out what people would tell their kids if little Johnny gets a headache on boxing day, goes on to test positive and grandad dies a month later.
 
Other regions:



North East/ Yorkshire up 3158 to 3198 (was 2739 last Sat) Increasing the lead as now the area with the most in hospital to 248 over NW. Ventilators up 208 to 211 (was 184 last Sat)

Midlands patients up 2698 to 2782 (was 2143 last Sat) Ventilators up 246 to 258 (was 223 last Sat)

London patients up 1150 to 1177 (was 959 last Sat) Ventilators up 178 to 194 (was 153 last Sat)
 
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True_Blue69 said:
SAGE have said tier 3 was working, they should have given it a chance before panicking based on made up numbers that were incorrect.
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Not quite, they wanted a full lockdown before the tiers , the gov were warned then and they are being warned now

But government scientists have warned that returning to a tiered system of coronavirus restrictions in England next month will cause infections to rise again.Newly-released documents from the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) said infections will "return to the same rate of increase" once the lockdown is lifted.

news.sky.com

COVID-19: UK reports another 462 coronavirus deaths and 26,860 new cases

There has been a slight increase in the number of cases and deaths since the previous Saturday.
news.sky.com news.sky.com

Scroll down near the end , after todays numbers
 
Summerbuzz said:
Still figuring out what people would tell their kids if little Johnny gets a headache on boxing day, goes on to test positive and grandad dies a month later.
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But surely grandad has had some say in this and made an informed choice. My mum, 82 and dying of cancer, saw my daughter and baby granddaughter today. My daughter is at home on mat leave, so the risk is small, but mum chooses to take that risk. I will visit Mum on Thursday and take the same risk.
 
I honestly am struggling to see how the new lockdown is meant to do anything significantly different from tier 3 restrictions.

For me unless schools are shut down again we will just see this pattern repeating over and over.
 
True_Blue69 said:
I know, terrible to think that 500k people will die next year and won't have seen their families on their last ever Xmas. Considering the average age of someone that dies of the virus is 82 and highly likely would have passed in the next 12 months anyway, would be interesting to see if they would rather enjoy their last Xmas or be sat in on their own.
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You're right. My mum's 92 and, at her request, I'll be going round on Christmas Eve for a couple of days as she's getting very depressed.
 
artfuldodger said:
But surely grandad has had some say in this and made an informed choice. My mum, 82 and dying of cancer, saw my daughter and baby granddaughter today. My daughter is at home on mat leave, so the risk is small, but mum chooses to take that risk. I will visit her on Thursday and take the same risk.
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Yep, generally it's got to be true that only you and they can really make the decisions, as only you and they really know the situation, and the people inivolved. And some people really do have very difficult decisions indeed.

I'm wary that some people get a bit sentimental about family and loneliness, and some of them will be people who generally don't listen to advice anyway. Also, older people can get a bit stubborn and blase about their lifespan. I don't mean to paint you or any other individual that way.

I just hope everyone does think it through, that we do think things through in general. There's a lot individuals and families can do to help, IMHO, that's what is likely to make the difference to how things go from here.
 
Rammy Blue said:
What kind of shops were open??

Nothing open here in Rammy, bar the food shops.
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Thats pretty much all that's there,in a square......Aldi,Sainsburys,Poundstretcher,Iceland,Quality save,2 coffee shops with queues out their doors,Boots and Thorntons ?? its more the point that everyone was climbing over each other,no social distancing and no apparent lockdown.
 
True_Blue69 said:
I know, terrible to think that 500k people will die next year and won't have seen their families on their last ever Xmas. Considering the average age of someone that dies of the virus is 82 and highly likely would have passed in the next 12 months anyway, would be interesting to see if they would rather enjoy their last Xmas or be sat in on their own.
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Just a quick general point - I know everyone's circumstances are different - the actuaries say that a healthy 82 year old man has a 75% chance of making it to 87.
 
True_Blue69 said:
I know, terrible to think that 500k people will die next year and won't have seen their families on their last ever Xmas. Considering the average age of someone that dies of the virus is 82 and highly likely would have passed in the next 12 months anyway, would be interesting to see if they would rather enjoy their last Xmas or be sat in on their own.
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Statistically around 7% of 82 year old men and 5% of 82 year old women die within the next year, that is not remotely "highly likely".

Risk of death by age and sex

Risk of death by age and sex
www.bandolier.org.uk
 
Summerbuzz said:
Yep, generally it's got to be true that only you and they can really make the decisions, as only you and they really know the situation, and the people inivolved. And some people really do have very difficult decisions indeed.

I'm wary that some people get a bit sentimental about family and loneliness, and some of them will be people who generally don't listen to advice anyway. Also, older people can get a bit stubborn and blase about their lifespan. I don't mean to paint you or any other individual that way.

I just hope everyone does think it through, that we do think things through in general. There's a lot individuals and families can do to help, IMHO, that's what is likely to make the difference to how things go from here.
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I understand your point. Each case is different. My father in law, 87, came out of hospital 4 weeks ago after a heart attack. 2 of his sons were insistent that they come and care for him, and he point blank refused saying he didn’t want to take the risk. We thought he was being awkward, and that he was being too cautious. Both sons tested positive for Covid within a week of each other. If they had visited he would likely have got it and died. Thankfully they respected his wishes!!
 
lancs blue said:
Statistically around 7% of 82 year old men and 5% of 82 year old women die within the next year, that is not remotely "highly likely".

Risk of death by age and sex

Risk of death by age and sex
www.bandolier.org.uk
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FFS. Statistically how many 82 year old men and women will die of covid in the next year? Even less. My point is that those who may be unfortunate enough to die with covid, must would have passed in the next 12 months meaning it would have been their last Xmas regardless.
 
True_Blue69 said:
SAGE have said tier 3 was working,
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This is simply false. They have said the opposite, that going back to the tiering system will not be adequate post lock down.

If England returns to the same application of the tiering system in place before 5th November, then transmission will return to the same rate of increase as today

www.google.com

COVID-19 infections will rise to pre-lockdown levels if tier system returns, SAGE warns

Boris Johnson insists the lockdown will end on 2 December but it is unclear what restrictions will be in place over Christmas.
www.google.com www.google.com
 
roubaixtuesday said:
This is simply false. They have said the opposite, that going back to the tiering system will not be adequate post lock down.

If England returns to the same application of the tiering system in place before 5th November, then transmission will return to the same rate of increase as today

www.google.com

COVID-19 infections will rise to pre-lockdown levels if tier system returns, SAGE warns

Boris Johnson insists the lockdown will end on 2 December but it is unclear what restrictions will be in place over Christmas.
www.google.com www.google.com
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They are saying that a tiered system didn’t work. Not necessarily that tier 3 didn’t work. Sounds like it wasn’t implemented for long enough for them to know. ‘In its document, SAGE said that initial analysis suggested tier 3 measures in England had a "noticeable impact on transmission, but it is not yet clear whether they have been sufficient to reduce R below 1".
I think they’ll will advise that we all go into tier 3.
 
FantasyIreland said:
Thats pretty much all that's there,in a square......Aldi,Sainsburys,Poundstretcher,Iceland,Quality save,2 coffee shops with queues out their doors,Boots and Thorntons ?? its more the point that everyone was climbing over each other,no social distancing and no apparent lockdown.
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Thornton’s? Really?
 
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