Another new Brexit thread

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Vic said:
How many headbangers are there?
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That is a good question - we dont know. There were circa 80 ERG types that rebelled in the last lot of votes (on the basis they wanted the hardest possible outcome). But we have had a GE since then and there are 107 new tories who have yet to face a crunch vote. So there could very easily be enough to block, 40 voting the other way or 80 abstentions, to put the vote on a deal in doubt.

But if they block a deal then its no deal (or the thin possibility of some softer alternative like an extension). A no deal scenario is a disaster for the tories - a mess entirely of their own making. They have failed to prepare for no deal and they know it. BJ would have to resign and where do they go from there. The unspoken reality of a no deal brexit is the first thing you do is go staright back to the EU and try to start up talks re another deal.
 
dave_blue12 said:
You'd be hard pressed to make this shit up.

Have the fishing industry been in a coma ? What the fuck did they expect ?
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I guess I could point to my post saying the west coast fishing industry needs a deal for their exports but the rich east coast big boys just wanted to keep the EU boats out of "our" waters.
 
Gaudion M said:
That is a good question - we dont know. There were circa 80 ERG types that rebelled in the last lot of votes (on the basis they wanted the hardest possible outcome). But we have had a GE since then and there are 107 new tories who have yet to face a crunch vote. So there could very easily be enough to block, 40 voting the other way or 80 abstentions, to put the vote on a deal in doubt.

But if they block a deal then its no deal (or the thin possibility of some softer alternative like an extension). A no deal scenario is a disaster for the tories - a mess entirely of their own making. They have failed to prepare for no deal and they know it. BJ would have to resign and where do they go from there. The unspoken reality of a no deal brexit is the first thing you do is go staright back to the EU and try to start up talks re another deal.
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Didn't every candidate sign up to whatever deal Johnson did? Or was that just the deal to leave (which they want to wreck already)?
 
View from the other side of the Atlantic. This is from the European economics correspondent of the NY Times, so it seems fairly impartial. Highlight is 3% (yes 3) of small and medium sized businesses think that Brexit will be a positive!

Pandemic plus Brexit equals trouble, U.K. manufacturers say.​


As if a pandemic accompanied by a global economic downturn were not trouble enough, manufacturers in Britain are now confronting the intensifying possibility that their country may soon crash out of the European Union without a deal governing future commercial relations across the English Channel.

The prospect of a no-deal Brexit has long threatened to trigger job-killing, investment-discouraging mayhem in Britain and in major European economies, impeding the flow of goods through ports and rendering uncertain the rules applying to major industries — from finance to agriculture to manufacturing.

Now, that prospect is growing increasingly real. A transition period during which nothing has changed is set to expire at the end of the year. Barring a trade deal between Britain and the European Union, the transition will end abruptly, with the terms of trade unclear. Given that Britain sends nearly half its exports to the European bloc, a rupture in dealings could bring profound economic damage.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson of Britain has long sold Brexit as the beginning of a glorious new era that will bolster his country’s fortunes through expanded trade with the world. But his primary aspiration — a trade deal with the United States — was always more about political optics than economic gains. An agreement looks less likely with the electoral defeat of President Trump, a Johnson ally and Brexit champion. The incoming American president, Joseph R. Biden Jr., has favored multilateral trade blocs, like the one that Britain is abandoning.

British factories are bracing for fresh pain. Already battered by the pandemic, which has played out with especially lethal force in the Britain, and suffering lost sales in the face of the global recession, manufacturers in England are strongly inclined to view Brexit as another wound to manage, and not the spur to commerce portrayed by the government.

Only 3 percent of small and medium-size factories express confidence that Brexit will have a positive impact on their efforts to recover from the pandemic, according to a survey released Monday morning by a pair of trade associations, the South West Manufacturing Advisory Service and the Manufacturing Growth Program.

Small and medium-size manufacturers “have been battered by Covid-19, and now they have the additional challenge of recovering with Brexit looming large on the horizon,” Nick Golding, managing director of the manufacturing advisory service, said in a statement accompanying the release of the Manufacturing Barometer. “It’s like a perfect storm for management teams trying to plan.”

The report draws on surveys with more than 400 companies in England, polling them on their experiences between July and September. It found that 47 percent were confused about how the departure from the European Union would affect their businesses — a worrying finding given that 62 percent overall said their businesses remained below volumes before the pandemic.

One-fourth of respondents anticipated that recovery would take between one and five years, a process not helped by a breach with the nation’s largest trading partner.
 
west didsblue said:
View from the other side of the Atlantic. This is from the European economics correspondent of the NY Times, so it seems fairly impartial. Highlight is 3% (yes 3) of small and medium sized businesses think that Brexit will be a positive!

Pandemic plus Brexit equals trouble, U.K. manufacturers say.​


As if a pandemic accompanied by a global economic downturn were not trouble enough, manufacturers in Britain are now confronting the intensifying possibility that their country may soon crash out of the European Union without a deal governing future commercial relations across the English Channel.

The prospect of a no-deal Brexit has long threatened to trigger job-killing, investment-discouraging mayhem in Britain and in major European economies, impeding the flow of goods through ports and rendering uncertain the rules applying to major industries — from finance to agriculture to manufacturing.

Now, that prospect is growing increasingly real. A transition period during which nothing has changed is set to expire at the end of the year. Barring a trade deal between Britain and the European Union, the transition will end abruptly, with the terms of trade unclear. Given that Britain sends nearly half its exports to the European bloc, a rupture in dealings could bring profound economic damage.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson of Britain has long sold Brexit as the beginning of a glorious new era that will bolster his country’s fortunes through expanded trade with the world. But his primary aspiration — a trade deal with the United States — was always more about political optics than economic gains. An agreement looks less likely with the electoral defeat of President Trump, a Johnson ally and Brexit champion. The incoming American president, Joseph R. Biden Jr., has favored multilateral trade blocs, like the one that Britain is abandoning.

British factories are bracing for fresh pain. Already battered by the pandemic, which has played out with especially lethal force in the Britain, and suffering lost sales in the face of the global recession, manufacturers in England are strongly inclined to view Brexit as another wound to manage, and not the spur to commerce portrayed by the government.

Only 3 percent of small and medium-size factories express confidence that Brexit will have a positive impact on their efforts to recover from the pandemic, according to a survey released Monday morning by a pair of trade associations, the South West Manufacturing Advisory Service and the Manufacturing Growth Program.

Small and medium-size manufacturers “have been battered by Covid-19, and now they have the additional challenge of recovering with Brexit looming large on the horizon,” Nick Golding, managing director of the manufacturing advisory service, said in a statement accompanying the release of the Manufacturing Barometer. “It’s like a perfect storm for management teams trying to plan.”

The report draws on surveys with more than 400 companies in England, polling them on their experiences between July and September. It found that 47 percent were confused about how the departure from the European Union would affect their businesses — a worrying finding given that 62 percent overall said their businesses remained below volumes before the pandemic.

One-fourth of respondents anticipated that recovery would take between one and five years, a process not helped by a breach with the nation’s largest trading partner.
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Tories wont care .... never have done .... never will do.
 
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