I'm curious about the 95% who did fall ill with the virus. Was everybody in the test group exposed at the same level of risk? If (I stress if) you were looking to make a great profit out of your vaccine, you could remove all (or 95%) of the vaccinated people out of any potential contact. Not at all claiming that is the case, but there is obviously a financial incentive, as well as the kudos, to be first.that wasn't how it was expressed on tonight's 6 o'clock news. They said what percentage had been given the placebo and of the remainder (who got the trial vaccine) only 5% of that amount contacted covid, therefore claiming 95% effective.
Im just curious as their logic didn't seem quite right to me
It's fair play chap we all need to once in a while.My wife has just come home
she has worked on ITU at Tameside all through this fucking shit
she's just told me me of yet another death
a bloke in his late 60's
2 relatives only allowed to go in has they switched his life support machine off
talk all about your number etc
I'v had to listen to all these personal stories since March now
Iv been on an early myself and been drinking,sorry for letting off steam
That is why the trials are conducted 'blindly ' so neither the people giving or getting the vaccine or placebo can tell.I'm curious about the 95% who did fall ill with the virus. Was everybody in the test group exposed at the same level of risk? If (I stress if) you were looking to make a great profit out of your vaccine, you could remove all (or 95%) of the vaccinated people out of any potential contact. Not at all claiming that is the case, but there is obviously a financial incentive, as well as the kudos, to be first.
I’m not suggesting otherwise but the truth has always been the way to approach this and it’s sadly lacking. Distorting it be using ‘date reported’ is just nonsensical and it’s what led to headlines of ’over 1000 deaths a day‘ in April, when the 1000 mark has never been breached. It’s sensationalist and just feeds people’s fears, although that might be what they’re trying to do, I suppose.Probably because they have been quoting deaths based on the date that they were reported throughout the pandemic. There are different ways of counting the deaths and you dismiss one of the methods. Fair enough.
The number of cases has also gone off daily reported positive tests as you also know. (The day before’s reported figures in both cases). We know from other surveys that those figures probably represent between a quarter and a half of the daily infections but that’s the main way the Government reports them.
The date of infection / death might be more accurate in both cases but the approach has been fairly consistent. The figures are sad whichever way you look at them.
So how can they claim an effectiveness % without these challenge trials?
Thanks, that makes more senseYou divide say 10,000 people into two groups and give 5,000 the vaccine and 5,000 the placebo by random sorting.
After say 105 people have tested positive you unblind the trial to see how many were in each group. If there were 100 in the placebo group and 5 in the vaccine group, you then make the following assumption that 100 people were exposed to the virus enough to develop symptoms and be tested positive. Because the groups are randomly allocated you assume that the exposure for each group is similar. If only 5 people in the vaccine group; are positive this implies that the vaccine is 95% effective. This is clearly an estimate and the statisticians then have to calculate the confidence intervals around the number to satisfy the regulator that the estimate is good enough.
I can’t imagine how down you and your wife must be feeling, hope things improve for you both.My wife has just come home
she has worked on ITU at Tameside all through this fucking shit
she's just told me me of yet another death
a bloke in his late 60's
2 relatives only allowed to go in has they switched his life support machine off
talk all about your number etc
I'v had to listen to all these personal stories since March now
Iv been on an early myself and been drinking,sorry for letting off steam
No problem mate , so many numbers banded about but they are people , this place didnt like me posting about the nurses and drs that died, giving them a name and some a face , very peculiar . Just a few hundred today like it is win , just the old and sick , hundreds of people lose family and loved ones, the numbers are people, never forget that , those unaffected so far are luckyMy wife has just come home
she has worked on ITU at Tameside all through this fucking shit
she's just told me me of yet another death
a bloke in his late 60's
2 relatives only allowed to go in has they switched his life support machine off
talk all about your number etc
I'v had to listen to all these personal stories since March now
Iv been on an early myself and been drinking,sorry for letting off steam
I spend all day in my van around south manchester and into cheshire. Traffic nothing like what it was pre lockdown. Rarely hit any serious traffic. At worse its ‘heavy’ but where as before i would avoid certain roads at certain times, it makes no odds now.I do wonder what roads you are looking at because the traffic is far less than normal. An hour long commute is currently taking 30minutes including travelling a quarter of the m60 ring at “rush hour” and it is free flowing all the way.
What it actually means though is that the falls seen in Manchester and Nottingham in the last two weeks were even bigger. The falls tomorrow will also be spectacular no doubt. And to think, this is the data source they’ll be using to decide what to do next.........Just to say more. Might be a while as I work through the numbers today as they are utterly ludicrous based on the published data. The student farce has created utter utter chaos.
When I tell you that many places actually have huge MINUS numbers today and others gigantic rises you will see this is no trivial tinkering.
Assuming there is not some undiscovered cock up (and with this testing and tracing who knows) Warrington has MINUS 126 cases today and Salford's Pop score goes up by the highest one in the history of the pandemic - over TWO HUNDRED! (though I bet it will not be the worst by the time I have finished). So literally anything could happen.
No problem mate , so many numbers banded about but they are people , this place didnt like me posting about the nurses and drs that died, giving them a name and some a face , very peculiar . Just a few hundred today like it is win , just the old and sick , hundreds of people lose family and loved ones, the numbers are people, never forget that , those unaffected so far are lucky
every death is importantNo problem mate , so many numbers banded about but they are people , this place didnt like me posting about the nurses and drs that died, giving them a name and some a face , very peculiar . Just a few hundred today like it is win , just the old and sick , hundreds of people lose family and loved ones, the numbers are people, never forget that , those unaffected so far are lucky
Still just the flu eh, frontline workers literally died for their patientsEvery person that dies is very sad but whether covid is here or not, it will still be happening. People have got so absorbed in this that they seem to forget that there are another 1,000 or so dying every day. No one is naming or giving them a face, not even a proper funeral at the moment.
i drive buses for Arriva North East and driving round our region since the 2nd lockdown it appears to be busier now than pre lockdown. The lass who does our accounts says last Monday we took the highest number of passengers & money for over 2 years. No wonder the pandemic is going nowhere in the North EastI spend all day in my van around south manchester and into cheshire. Traffic nothing like what it was pre lockdown. Rarely hit any serious traffic. At worse its ‘heavy’ but where as before i would avoid certain roads at certain times, it makes no odds now.
can do the a6 from disley to stockport without hitting much traffic at all. Unheard of pre march
SO many of my customers work from home now, compared to very few/hardly any before
I am so grateful to her and all the others , heroes to me , give her an extra cuddleevery death is important
its a life
that is important to other lives
1 death ripples to hundreds,thousands
my wife is bame,but regardless does her duty every single shift.I'm so proud of her and scared for her too
I am so grateful to her and all the others , heroes to me , give her an extra cuddle
The South East added just 95 and the East ZERO today.
I am told they have reallocated lots of university students as nobody had a consistent plan on whether to count them as being located where they tested or where they lived!
Still just the flu eh, frontline workers literally died for their patients