COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[purplenose]

Thin air mate. No one can know that until the conclusion of the trial.

I would be surprised given the other results, but if true it would mean the lot going in the skip I would have thought.

 

[Ric]

Did it take him 5 minutes to deliver one sentence like usual.

He managed to condense it into just six tweets this time. So much for the brevity of Twitter.

 

[03 March 2002]

I'm sure Trump will in due course.


Interesting.
I was wondering how this mRNA (seemingly so successful atm) will play against the more traditional vaccines and whether these new methods will trump the older ones?
I have no idea how these things work however, so purely guess work on my behalf.

Like to explore the idea that mRNA vaccines could work very well against other viruses to however.

I think this figure does a decent job of demonstrating how it works. Essentially mRNA vaccines are much 'cleaner' in that they introduce only the blueprint of the important spike protein to our cells. In this example, the 'antigen' is what our immune response recognises and is the spike protein.

It's important to understand that actually a virus is a bit like a tick in that they need to form symbiotic relationships to thrive. In the same way flowers rely on certain events to spread their seeds to reproduce, a virus needs to hijack our cells to use our protein production to make its own proteins.

What a vaccine is, is basically the equivalent of having loads of police (immune response incl. antibodies) stationed around town and every shop now has a wanted poster up. As soon as the virus is spotted it's swarmed upon. Hard to do that if you don't know what the criminal looks like beforehand.

 

[Man_City_Loyal]

52000 watched the state of origin final in Brisbane. We will be there soon.

hopefully, but Australia were so much responsive over this compared to the UK

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Fingers crossed. Saw Robert Peston yesterday claim that the Oxford vaccine will "only" have 70% efficacy. No idea what he's basing that on though.

70% is good enough.

Peston must be reporting speculation. You might be able to guess at relative efficacy from the phase I immuno-response data, but I'm not qualified to do that, and I've not seen anyone attempting it.

 

[Healdplace]

Scotland data up first:

54 deaths

1264 cases

470 Greater Glasgow 312 Lanarkshire 141 Lothian

6.7 % positive

1241 Patients (down 8)

88 icu Ventilators (down 7)

 

[03 March 2002]

I would be surprised given the other results, but if true it would mean the lot going in the skip I would have thought.

There's more to it than just taking the one that's most effective. We've used seasonal flu vaccines in the low 70% for effectiveness before now.

What this does do is herald in a new age of science. It's hard to believe how fortunate we are here. mRNA is actually quite easy to make, it's cheap (relative) and the health and safety implications are much lower. I really can't overstate the benefits this would give us as the human race.

It's like we've gone to buy a present for our loved ones but we've to manage price, quality and availability. We've left the shop immediately with a better present and change enough to get a pint on the way home if this proves to be a viable technology.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Fingers crossed. Saw Robert Peston yesterday claim that the Oxford vaccine will "only" have 70% efficacy. No idea what he's basing that on though.

Here you go.

Speculation it is, literally "gossip" from Peston's twitter feed.

Pay no heed, wait for results would be my view, and also, anything good enough is good enough. Doesn't need to be 95%, does need to be as soon as possible!

 

[03 March 2002]

70% is good enough.

Peston must be reporting speculation. You might be able to guess at relative efficacy from the phase I immuno-response data, but I'm not qualified to do that, and I've not seen anyone attempting it.

Never seen it done before, it would be considered extremely taboo and sure as shit wouldn't be published. Internally they may have an idea of what's what but there's no way anyone would know. You'd risk your whole career just alluding to this - total bullshit without question.

 

[ayrshire_blue]

There's more to it than just taking the one that's most effective. We've used seasonal flu vaccines in the low 70% for effectiveness before now.

What this does do is herald in a new age of science. It's hard to believe how fortunate we are here. mRNA is actually quite easy to make, it's cheap (relative) and the health and safety implications are much lower. I really can't overstate the benefits this would give us as the human race.

It's like we've gone to buy a present for our loved ones but we've to manage price, quality and availability. We've left the shop immediately with a better present and change enough to get a pint on the way home if this proves to be a viable technology.

At the end of your last paragraph I usually end up worried that it's too good to be true. Sorry to bring a pessimistic note to that, it's based on absolutely nothing but genuine human nature. What you've described is brilliant and I hope all goes to plan in that manner.

 

[purplenose]

There's more to it than just taking the one that's most effective. We've used seasonal flu vaccines in the low 70% for effectiveness before now.

What this does do is herald in a new age of science. It's hard to believe how fortunate we are here. mRNA is actually quite easy to make, it's cheap (relative) and the health and safety implications are much lower. I really can't overstate the benefits this would give us as the human race.

It's like we've gone to buy a present for our loved ones but we've to manage price, quality and availability. We've left the shop immediately with a better present and change enough to get a pint on the way home if this proves to be a viable technology.

From what you say it would seem to suggest that advances made due to this virus have been much more rapid than they would have otherwise been. Quite possible then that this thing could actually save millions more than it kills in the long run.

 

[Healdplace]

Scotland 3 wks ago v 2 wks v last wk v today

Deaths 28 v 50 v 64 v 54 today

Cases 1202 v 1433 v 1261 v 1264 today - showing the cases have stuck at a rather high plateau.

Patients 1117 v 1257 v 1235 v 1241 today - this has levelled right off but the number of deaths will be a factor

icu ventilators 85 v 94 v 93 v 88 today - same caveat but even so the fall looks real.

 

[johnnytapia]

Putin will probably claim that the Russian vaccine is more than 100% effective.

 

[Ric]

Seems particularly good news that it is apparently 94% effective in the over 65 age group.

 

[03 March 2002]

Here you go.

Speculation it is, literally "gossip" from Peston's twitter feed.

Pay no heed, wait for results would be my view, and also, anything good enough is good enough. Doesn't need to be 95%, does need to be as soon as possible!

Scalability will play a huge role. This won't be cheap and the Gov. will secure an 80% effective vaccine if they can have it tomorrow. AZ makes seasonal flu vaccine for half the world. The scalability is there. Pfizer and Moderna are using newer tech which will require training and proper implementation. Not to mention the added step of encapsulation in a lipid nanoparticle (no idea how complex/long this process is). These are new technologies, there aren't a dearth of labs out there ready to do this to scale.

Still expect AZ/Oxford to win the race.

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

hopefully, but Australia were so much responsive over this compared to the UK

and the rest Europe etc etc

 

[Healdplace]

I would add though that if you factor up the Scotland plateau from 1200 cases a day based on population you would expect England to get something lie 13,000 cases a day.

It is nowhere near that low. The England case total was the smallest in a while yesterday and it was 17, 549.

So the 1200 or so plateau is better than where England yet has reached.

 

[03 March 2002]

As an outsider, 170 out of 43,000 is quite a small proportion. I mean it'a not even 1% of the test pool so what are the assurances that it is representative?

I'm basing the above on the recent posts I've read with the headline news.

Stats will have determined it to be more than insignificant.

Work doesn't stop here, efficacy data will be continuously collected for years to come.

 

[03 March 2002]

From what you say it would seem to suggest that advances made due to this virus have been much more rapid than they would have otherwise been. Quite possible then that this thing could actually save millions more than it kills in the long run.

Necessity is the mother of invention.

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

Fingers crossed. Saw Robert Peston yesterday claim that the Oxford vaccine will "only" have 70% efficacy. No idea what he's basing that on though.

Cant stand Peston. Whoever thought he was good at doing his job needs their head testing with his awful slow stucatto delivery. How would he know anyway, his speciality is putting a negative spin on everything so we can guess he has just made it all up?