COVID-19 — Coronavirus

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Just been looking at some Gov Uk graphs that plot the 7 day average of cases in the nation and the NW. They show that the NW peaked around the 20 October with cases at about 4800 and have gradually fallen since to be a week ago at about 3800. The curve downwards looks very slow though. So not sure how rapidly we can expect the numbers to decrease much further or what happens after the lockdown ends and Christmas arrives.

This is likely the NW gaining the benefit of being in restrictions of one sort since late July. As the England cases curve is still slowly rising if you look at the same 7 day averages but has slowed to the point of it looking almost flat.

Interestingly the early data on the graph for deaths shows it peaking on 9 Nov - the very date I pointed to earlier in the England hospital reports where we had 291 deaths (highest so far since 1 May) but where dates after it seem to be starting to slowly reduce and none looking likely to be above that - though they are falling much more slowly than they rose, as is the way with these waves.

We might have seen the worst of it though if this continues. Though it is early days to predict the path beyond a date just over a week old. Especially if the rest of the UK spikes like the NW did.

But the 20 days between cases peaking and deaths doing the same is pretty much exactly what you would expect to see in terms of what we know about the course of the disease so that fits into the picture too.
 
everythingchangesbutblue said:
Honestly mate i don't know you but you seem to be snipey and angry at people on this thread. Seems the opposite of what you seem to be like anywhere else.
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It’s a drop in numbers compared to last week...

I take that as a positive and something to be hopeful about in the coming weeks.

I think it’s right to make the point that an increase in numbers is met by some with shock/scare comments but the same people are silent when there’s any signs of positivity

I didn’t say let’s all have a party as some are trying to make out.
 
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BlueHammer85 said:
It’s a drop in numbers compared to last week...

I take that as a positive and something to be hopeful about in the coming weeks.

I think it’s right to make the point that an increase in numbers is met by some with shock/scare comments but the same people are silent when there’s any signs of positivity

I didn’t say let’s all have a party as some are trying to make out.
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you nasty cockney w....ker. (I agree with you) - said lay in my bed naked wanking over Trevor Morley’s wife just for context. (Singing knees up mother brown).

It is good news of course it is on the way down and the deaths as sad as they are have to be seen in The context of the average age remains 82.4 and 18,000 people a week anyway die at this time of the year.
 
Does anyone have any confidence that we will come out of this current lockdown on the 3rd?

I can't help feeling its going to be extended by another couple of weeks at least.
 
BBC showed pfizer update tonight.

95% effective over 65's presumably to counter the other vaccine 95% headline other day

They put up EXACT numbers of covid infections in placebo group versus vaccine group.

However, when confirming incidence of side effects they only said a minority of cases.

Is it concerning that the exact numbers or even % was not offered, eg only " a minority"

What range of numbers in that test would minority be eg could it be 49% who had vaccine?

Im just always suspicious when major companies provide exact numbers for positive news

but only use lesser descriptive if its a negative aspect. Maybe is a low number, if anyone has

definitive number, please share here, thanks
 
abu13 said:
Does anyone have any confidence that we will come out of this current lockdown on the 3rd?

I can't help feeling its going to be extended by another couple of weeks at least.
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Think officially we will come out but most areas will come out into a beefed up tier 3 (same as lockdown)
 
abu13 said:
Does anyone have any confidence that we will come out of this current lockdown on the 3rd?

I can't help feeling its going to be extended by another couple of weeks at least.
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It will certainly be called something else as Boris categorically stated we will come out.

Therefore the current exact lockdown will end, to be replaced with another, eg Tier 1-4

or some other configuration
 
Does anyone know if the manufacturing facility for the Oxford vaccine is in the UK?
 
Healdplace said:
Despite the fall in cases again the regional total shows a rise for the NW sadly. Though not alone. Yorks And NE too.

London 2023 - down slightly from 2102

Midlands 2002 - down from 2639.

North East 1568 - up from 1276.

Yorkshire 2907 - up from 2540.

Unfortunately NW has the biggest rise and the highest numbers nationally again today

to 3120 from 2446.
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The NHS started to roll out the anti covid drug cocktail this week. The one that Trump was given. My registrar daughter is very hopeful it will reduce deaths by a lot.
 
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