COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[artfuldodger]

In GM for the first time in - well - yonks - EVERY borough except Manchester was under 100. Yes even Wigan!

And Manchester had its lowest number for many weeks too.

You know things have changed extraordinarily for the better when Stockport had one of the relatively worst days in GM today despite falling slightly and being under 80 for the third day on the run.

Only Rochdale went up today and even they stayed under 100.

Any chance of tier 2 do you think?

 

[Manc in London]

70% is the overall average for everyone dosed in the trial.

62% is for the subpopulation given the higher dose. The confidence interval for that group was quoted as 54-80% ie its 95% likely that efficacy is in that range forv that subgroup.

90% is for the subpopulation given the lower dose. No confidence interval is quoted, maybe because the numbers are so small (likely as low as two cases on the active arm). It's likely the confidence intervals overlap.

So if you want to fix a figure in your mind, I'd suggest 70%. That's the most robust number here.

However, the real point IMV is that the exact number doesn't matter. All of these numbers are good enough to end the pandemic. And that's the real take home: we have a good enough vaccine and sufficient manufacturing capacity to deliver it. Everything else is detail.

I was always under the impression medical research applied a 99% confidence level, whilst market and social research used 95%.

Regional scoreboard shock.

Everywhere down and London the biggest area again,

London 2075 - down from 2979.

Midlands 2020 - down from 2465.

North East 732 - down from 837. ~

Yorkshire 1667 - down from 1748.

And North West - bottom of the big league regions - where it is good to be. Just 1573 - down from 1994.

It is over two months since it has been that low and nearly 3 months since it was regularly around that level.

To add context, what are the base sizes for each area?

 

[artfuldodger]

He may have a point.

Former MasterChef champion and owner of Wood restaurant Simon Wood said of the revised tiers: "What baffles me is that they're quite openly admitting 'we've got it wrong again, so we've changed it from last time'.

"That's what they're saying by changing the rules.

"They're never going to get the result they want until education closes, which it will do naturally over Christmas - and then they'll say the restrictions work."

He - along with thousands of workers and industry bodies - is again calling on the Government to publish evidence that supports closures.

 

[andyhinch]

Latest 7 day rolling average of cases per 100,000 people (up to and inc. Weds 18th Nov)
View attachment 5742

Looks like Cheshire East might get into T2 :-)

 

[kippax4ever]

Under his 56-page COVID Winter Plan, which Mr Johnson revealed to the House of Commons on Monday, the national shutdown will be replaced by a new "tougher" version of the tiered system of restrictions that preceded it

The lifting of the national lockdown from 2 December will see:

• Non-essential shops, hairdressers, gyms and leisure facilities reopen across the whole of England
• Collective worship, weddings and all outdoor sports can resume, subject to social distancing, across the whole of England
• The "rule of six" will return - meaning people will no longer be limited to seeing only one other person in outdoor public - across the whole of England
• The previous 10pm curfew for pubs, bars and restaurants will be extended to 11pm, with last orders at 10pm

In Tier 1 areas, people will be urged to work from home wherever possible.

In Tier 2 areas, pubs and bars must close unless they are serving substantial meals along with alcoholic drinks.

In Tier 3 areas all pubs, bars and restaurants must close except for delivery, takeaway and drive-through. Hotels and indoor entertainment venues must also close in these areas

PM,
"I'm sorry to say we expect that more regions will fall at least temporarily into higher levels than before," he added.

"But by using these tougher tiers and by using rapid turnaround tests on an ever greater scale to drive R below one and keep it there, it should be possible for areas to move down the tiering scale to lower levels of restrictions.

rapid turnaround tests on an ever greater scale to drive R

7days since my test,still nothing back.
Just got off the phone 119
Very helpful(but not a lot they could do)
A lady I spoke to on Saturday sent a referral email to the people who call you with the results,24/48hrs I should hear back,zilch
Now the lady I just spoke to said if by tonight or tomorrow you get no call txt,email,
That will be the end off it.
Now besides being well and truly pissed off, losing work and suppose to start a new one Wednesday,
There no comeback on the company's that tell you your results,cant call them,email them fk all,
There's definitely a defect in the process.

 

[Healdplace]

I was always under the impression medical research applied a 99% confidence level, whilst market and social research used 95%.


To add context, what are the base sizes for each area?

I posted a list of the regions with their Pop Scores that measured that if someone wants to find it and fish it out from a few nights back.

Too busy with the data just now to do it myself, Remind me later if I forget and I will do an up to date list.

 

[kippax4ever]

Looking positive!

But will these daft ideas about a mad six days of mixing over Christmas just see these rocket back up again in the New Year?

Today, my Dad has told my Sister (5 of them in her house) that no matter what Boris says about Christmas this week, he doesn’t want my Sister and family to go and see them over Christmas. My Mother has lupus so her immune system is very poor (and she was one of those who got a shielding letter back in April). It will be a bit sad for my Mam+Dad not to see their 2, 6 and 8 year old grandchildren but at least they’re being sensible.

I wonder how many other households would do this?

I very much doubt 95% wont give a fk.

 

[Bluesince1979]

Time for pubs to go bye bye

Did a job today for a guy with 5 pubs. He was shutting 2 anyway but with this news i dont think any will survive

 

[Healdplace]

England hospital data updated to today. Slightly less good news here. But not terrible. Monday usually sees a rise.

Patients up 13, 214 to 13, 445 (was 13, 058 last wk so a very small wk to wk rise of about 3%)

Ventilators up 1248 - 1259 (was 1194 last wk)

 

[hilts]

Did a job today for a guy with 5 pubs. He was shutting 2 anyway but with this news i dont think any will survive

Continually shit on feel for the staff and owners.