2020 US Elections

[mat]

100%. I don't think Trump is finished yet.

I could be wrong, and he might just fizzle out or fade away, but I'm not counting anyone's chickens at this point.

Anti Lockdown figurehead anyone?

Him and his mate Fuhrage bankrolled by Mr Banks again.

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

To be fair, I am not sure 2000 is a particularly good example of judicial checks and balances working given the candidate that lost the election remained President (largely down to the gaming of election law, mob tactics, and judicial deficiencies).

And I think it is likely reasonable to say that had a similar razor thin EC majority and vote count scenario played out this cycle there is a very high chance it would not have properly checked or balanced the outcome (and the democratic republic may not have survived).

All of that said, although the Trump camp’s path to more direct subversion has now all but evaporated, I do think many are putting up the MISSION ACCOMPLISHED banner a tad early.

As I have said many times, I will pop the bubbly when Biden is sworn in on 20 January after Trump has been dragged out. How much bubbly is consumed will depend on how much of the White House (and the US) is left standing after the final few months of Trump’s scorched America campaign.

When the dust settles the conclusion of what happened in this election is that Biden won by a fairly decent margin and Trump made a very serious attempt to overturn it that went beyond the scope of 'normal' challenge. His repeated claims to have won when he clearly did not and his attempts to coerce officials into backing his efforts were nothing short of an attempt to subvert the democratic process. Most of what he did fell flat but there was some traction in parts. The question that throws up is that if this was not as close how much more threat would he have been. Constitutionally you can win an election by 1 vote out of 200's of millions and you should still be the winner. Trump has demonstrated that there are people willing to bend under pressure. That is going to be a large part of Trumps legacy - the election process was attacked and it wobbled under pressure.

 

[SebastianBlue]

100%. I don't think Trump is finished yet.

I could be wrong, and he might just fizzle out or fade away, but I'm not counting anyone's chickens at this point.

I have only marginally (though perhaps some on here would say substantially) improved my outlook to “very cautiously optimistic”.

I am very happy that the very real possibility of a close EC outcome was not realised, as the more comprehensive nature of Biden’s victory has made ‘phase 3’ election subversion much more difficult than it otherwise would be.

But he still has (albeit horrific) paths toward subverting the legitimate elections results. None of them are easy or especially likely... but the fact that we are even in the situation where Donald ****ing Trump is the sitting president trying desperately to subvert an election to remain in office during a global pandemic whilst his followers support his efforts so he can continue his supposed fight to bring down the international secret cabal of pedophile cannibals (which somehow everyone knows about?) means you really can’t take much off the table as a possibility.

We’re obviously in the “**** it, let’s change all of the settings to ‘bonkers’ and see what happens” ancestor simulation, so anything goes. And, jokes aside, we especially can’t rest easy when you take in to account the fact that Trump and co’s world implodes the first minute he is out in the cold, despite farcical narratives to the contrary.

 

[Trevor Morley's Tache]

I have only marginally (though perhaps some on here would say substantially) improved my outlook to “very cautiously optimistic”.

I am very happy that the very real possibility of a close EC outcome was not realised, as the more comprehensive nature of Biden’s victory has made ‘phase 3’ election subversion much more difficult than it otherwise would be.

But he still has (albeit horrific) paths toward subverting the legitimate elections results. None of them are easy or especially likely... but the fact that we are even in the situation where Donald ****ing Trump is the sitting president trying desperately to subvert an election to remain in office during a global pandemic whilst his followers support his efforts so he can continue his supposed fight to bring down the international secret cabal of pedophile cannibals (which somehow everyone knows about?) means you really can’t take much off the table as a possibility.

We’re obviously in the “**** it, let’s change all of the settings to ‘bonkers’ and see what happens” ancestor simulation, so anything goes. And, jokes aside, we especially can’t rest easy when you take in to account the fact that Trump and co’s world implodes the first minute he is out in the cold, despite farcical narratives to the contrary.

It's over for Trump the moment Biden is sworn in. That's some incentive to either remain in power, or come up with a suitable exit strategy that doesn't end up with him and his kids skint and facing serious jail time.

I've heard there may be a couple of apartments available next to Edward Snowden's place...

 

[Gray]

That's why I said the count was effectively over. The outcome of states where there are still quite a few votes to be counted are not in any doubt whatsoever. So the fact that those states are slow to process their final tally is irrelevant.

Looking at the stats, there is only NY that has more than 10% of its votes left to count and Maine that has more than 5%. It's down to individual states being responsible for their own rules. I suspect that if there was some sort of federal rule, the states would push back and see it as interference in their own processes that have worked fine for countless elections, and if you look past the Trump bullshit they have worked fine for this one.

Fair enough, just seems a bit long winded that's all.

 

[SebastianBlue]

When the dust settles the conclusion of what happened in this election is that Biden won by a fairly decent margin and Trump made a very serious attempt to overturn it that went beyond the scope of 'normal' challenge. His repeated claims to have won when he clearly did not and his attempts to coerce officials into backing his efforts were nothing short of an attempt to subvert the democratic process. Most of what he did fell flat but there was some traction in parts. The question that throws up is that if this was not as close how much more threat would he have been. Constitutionally you can win an election by 1 vote out of 200's of millions and you should still be the winner. Trump has demonstrated that there are people willing to bend under pressure. That is going to be a large part of Trumps legacy - the election process was attacked and it wobbled under pressure.

I touched on this in my original post and my response to Tache.

And we’ve all spoken about how the Trump presidency — and this election — have further exposed the frailties of the American system of governance and body politic. I say “further” because the issues have been exposed before but were mostly not addressed (in some cases they were actually worsened). And many of those weaknesses are not unique to the US, as you, I, and others have pointed out, as well. This is in many ways a global issue (as nearly everything is these days, for better or worse). Most of this is well trodden trail at this point — this eventuality was predicted by many of us (as it was not a difficult one to predict if you were at all paying attention).

Basing governance largely on political and cultural norms has again been shown to be dangerously mad, as has the very nature of populism itself. And it has brought a spotlight upon the growing fervour for a return to authoritarianism sweeping the globe as we speak, and the possible reasons for it, including the full implications of global communications and ‘community’ enabled by the internet.

The US *may* have dodged the catastrophic outcome for now — time will tell — but it is not the end of the threat by any means. We cannot rest on this (hopeful) triumph, in the UK, US, or many other places.

There is still quite a bit of work to be done.

 

[SebastianBlue]

It's over for Trump the moment Biden is sworn in. That's some incentive to either remain in power, or come up with a suitable exit strategy that doesn't end up with him and his kids skint and facing serious jail time.

I've heard there may be a couple of apartments available next to Edward Snowden's place...

I’ve heard the doorknobs at Mar-a-Lago may become particularly dusty in February...

 

[MillionMilesAway]

I’ve heard the doorknobs at Mar-a-Lago may become particularly dusty in February...

Is Novichok a powder now?

 

[SebastianBlue]

Is Novichok a powder now?

It can be a liquid or a powder.

But we digress...

 

[west didsblue]

I have only marginally (though perhaps some on here would say substantially) improved my outlook to “very cautiously optimistic”.

I am very happy that the very real possibility of a close EC outcome was not realised, as the more comprehensive nature of Biden’s victory has made ‘phase 3’ election subversion much more difficult than it otherwise would be.

But he still has (albeit horrific) paths toward subverting the legitimate elections results. None of them are easy or especially likely... but the fact that we are even in the situation where Donald ****ing Trump is the sitting president trying desperately to subvert an election to remain in office during a global pandemic whilst his followers support his efforts so he can continue his supposed fight to bring down the international secret cabal of pedophile cannibals (which somehow everyone knows about?) means you really can’t take much off the table as a possibility.

We’re obviously in the “**** it, let’s change all of the settings to ‘bonkers’ and see what happens” ancestor simulation, so anything goes. And, jokes aside, we especially can’t rest easy when you take in to account the fact that Trump and co’s world implodes the first minute he is out in the cold, despite farcical narratives to the contrary.

I am somewhat more optimistic than you are, largely due to Trump's utter stupidity and the fact that the only people left running his circus are the clowns. Everyone with a brain has bailed on him.
The main concern is the potential for civil unrest and innocent people being killed because of the fanaticism of a significant proportion of his followers who still hang on his every word.

 

[SebastianBlue]

I am somewhat more optimistic than you are, largely due to Trump's utter stupidity and the fact that the only people left running his circus are the clowns. Everyone with a brain has bailed on him.
The main concern is the potential for civil unrest and innocent people being killed because of the fanaticism of a significant proportion of his followers who still hang on his every word.

You are of course absolutely right about his and most of his camp’s immense stupidity...

But there are still some clever zealots in his corner, along with quite a few middling loyalists (some recently installed) that are more than capable of sowing the sort of chaos required to “legitimise” invoking further emergency powers that could see him cling on. Those in front of the cameras are just the circus acts; there are unfortunately plenty of the business managers and hired hands left behind the scenes.

And I would always caution against underestimating the damage that can be wrought by truly stupid people, anyway. History has shown us they are often the most dangerous (especially recent history).

As I said, none of the paths still available to Trump will likely succeed if he does go down them, but I won’t celebrate until we’ve actually crossed the line (and VAR has checked for offside and/or handball) because so much can happen in the next two months, as the past year has shown us.

I also think the civil unrest is going to occur regardless, unfortunately, it’s just a matter of whether it is widespread or in pockets (which can be managed).

 

[SWP's back]

To be fair, I am not sure 2000 is a particularly good example of judicial checks and balances working given the candidate that lost the election remained President (largely down to the gaming of election law, mob tactics, and judicial deficiencies).

And I think it is likely reasonable to say that had a similar razor thin EC majority and vote count scenario played out this cycle there is a very high chance it would not have properly checked or balanced the outcome (and the democratic republic may not have survived).

All of that said, although the Trump camp’s path to more direct subversion has now all but evaporated, I do think many are putting up the MISSION ACCOMPLISHED banner a tad early.

As I have said many times, I will pop the bubbly when Biden is sworn in on 20 January after Trump has been dragged out. How much bubbly is consumed will depend on how much of the White House (and the US) is left standing after the final few months of Trump’s scorched America campaign.

It’s over Seb. There’s not a chance Trump wrote that tweet nor that he would have ever though any of the sentiment in it.

That tells me two things:

1: There’s a grown up somewhere in his inner circle that has convinced him the game is up.

2: He’s finally decided to accept that he can’t turn over the result (along with insiders crying that Trump is moping around the West Wing and saying the campaign’s running of the legal challenges has made them look foolish).

I would not be the least bit surprised if he goes to Mar A Largo golfing in the coming weeks and simply doesn’t return. He has zero interest in governing and doing the job of President. I’d also joy be remotely surprised if he resigned to make Pence POTUS and received an immediate pardon.

 

[SebastianBlue]

It’s over Seb. There’s not a chance Trump wrote that tweet nor that he would have ever though any of the sentiment in it.

That tells me two things:

1: There’s a grown up somewhere in his inner circle that has convinced him the game is up.

2: He’s finally decided to accept that he can’t turn over the result (along with insiders crying that Trump is moping around the West Wing and saying the campaign’s running of the legal challenges has made them look foolish).

I would not be the least bit surprised if he goes to Mar A Largo golfing in the coming weeks and simply doesn’t return. He has zero interest in governing and doing the job of President. I’d also joy be remotely surprised if he resigned to make Pence POTUS and received an immediate pardon.

Completely agree he didn’t write the tweet, mate. He hasn’t composed many of the tweets under his official account, and it’s especially obvious with the ones that have any sort of conciliatory slant to them.

But I think that makes it more likely he’ll pursue other avenues (and likely fail doing that, as well), than less, as someone posted that tweet on his account to merely save face, not as a hint that the Trump camp’s overarching mindset has shifted or their desperation has dissipated.

I don’t think that necessarily indicates either scenario 1 or 2 you have outlined. Either *could* have happened but I am not sure a tweet hastily put out after a staffer caved against his camp’s wishes supports either.

And I agree he has had little-to-no interest in governing, but that has been the case since he was inaugurated. He has only ever cared about the power, money, and protection that comes with the office. And he is very much still interested in that, even as he golfs and tweets recklessly. Perhaps even more so now, for the reasons I have outlined in previous posts.

What about his exploits over the past four years gives the impression he is simply going to privately or publicly accept he was beaten and then retreat in to relative docility, embracing that his life is about to implode like a rational person?

Pence can’t pardon Trump for the SDNY cases and other non-federal litigation that will be coming his way, so resigning won’t substantively help him with his legal trouble (in fact, it will just bring it on him sooner). And once he is out of office the largest source of the revenue for his businesses goes away over night (even with his fleecing of his followers).

The official election is over. The interlude period of subversion attempts, even more desperate grifting, and burning things down is not.

 

[Mr Kobayashi]

It’s over Seb. There’s not a chance Trump wrote that tweet nor that he would have ever though any of the sentiment in it.

That tells me two things:

1: There’s a grown up somewhere in his inner circle that has convinced him the game is up.

2: He’s finally decided to accept that he can’t turn over the result (along with insiders crying that Trump is moping around the West Wing and saying the campaign’s running of the legal challenges has made them look foolish).

I would not be the least bit surprised if he goes to Mar A Largo golfing in the coming weeks and simply doesn’t return. He has zero interest in governing and doing the job of President. I’d also joy be remotely surprised if he resigned to make Pence POTUS and received an immediate pardon.

Thought about the pardon situation myself a few weeks ago but then after looking into the affect Nixon's pardon had on Gerald Ford's reputation, I came to the suspicion that Pence might refrain from the same action if he thought he had a serious chance of running in 2024.

 

[Gray]

I sincerely hope Trump doesn’t turn up at the inauguration. Can you imagine him sat near the front with that smarmy grin mouthing “I Won” to the cameras and waving to anybody and everybody. That would be just too much even for him.

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

Completely agree he didn’t write the tweet, mate. He hasn’t composed many of the tweets under his official account, and it’s especially obvious with the ones that have any sort of conciliatory slant to them.

But I think that makes it more likely he’ll pursue other avenues (and likely fail doing that, as well), than less, as someone posted that tweet on his account to merely save face, not as a hint that the Trump camp’s overarching mindset has shifted or their desperation has dissipated.

I don’t think that necessarily indicates either scenario 1 or 2 you have outlined. Either *could* have happened but I am not sure a tweet hastily put out after a staffer caved against his camp’s wishes supports either.

And I agree he has had little-to-no interest in governing, but that has been the case since he was inaugurated. He has only ever cared about the power, money, and protection that comes with the office. And he is very much still interested in that, even as he golfs and tweets recklessly.

I think its over. His relevance is melting away. The vast majority of his cronies in power are now fully engaged in covering their tracks, limiting liability, working on their exit and what they do in a post Trump world. We've seen a mass of evidence that there are no good people left working for Trump / Guliani its just the bottom of the barrel working in a barely functional set up. No one is going to take bullets for him now or even stick their head up to look. And he is not going to come out to face the music, he's just going to golf it out.

Not sure he has the guts to resign and take a Pence pardon. It's effectively an admission of guilt and even though he probably should do it and people will tell him to do it he will just do what he always does which is never admit guilt and brass everything out. I think he will just retire to Florida and wait for the prosecutors to call for him. I'm not sure Russia would offer him asylum - that is a bit like an admission of guilt for them and it would be a huge escalation in tension. Trump will be largely on his own post January.

I'd laugh my balls off if some of his appointees flee to Russia - it could happen. I suspect that many Trump enablers will find themselves in some very tricky situations - there are things that the Russians and GOP do not want discussed under threat of perjury. Bill Barr would be my favourite.

 

[west didsblue]

Completely agree he didn’t write the tweet, mate. He hasn’t composed many of the tweets under his official account, and it’s especially obvious with the ones that have any sort of conciliatory slant to them.

But I think that makes it more likely he’ll pursue other avenues (and likely fail doing that, as well), than less, as someone posted that tweet on his account to merely save face, not as a hint that the Trump camp’s overarching mindset has shifted or their desperation has dissipated.

I don’t think that necessarily indicates either scenario 1 or 2 you have outlined. Either *could* have happened but I am not sure a tweet hastily put out after a staffer caved against his camp’s wishes supports either.

And I agree he has had little-to-no interest in governing, but that has been the case since he was inaugurated. He has only ever cared about the power, money, and protection that comes with the office. And he is very much still interested in that, even as he golfs and tweets recklessly. Perhaps even more so now, for the reasons I have outlined in previous posts.

What about his exploits over the past four years gives the impression he is simply going to privately or publicly accept he was beaten and then retreat in to relative docility, embracing that his life is about to implode like a rational person?

Pence can’t pardon Trump for the SDNY cases and other non-federal litigation that will be coming his way, so resigning won’t substantively help him with his legal trouble (in fact, it will just bring it on him sooner). And once he is out of office the largest source of the revenue for his businesses goes away over night (even with his fleecing of his followers).

The official election is over. The interlude period of subversion attempts, even more desperate grifting, and burning things down is not.

The spelling, grammar and CAPS LOCK OFF is even more of giveaway than the message that he was nothing to do with the tweet.

 

[Vic]

Thought about the pardon situation myself a few weeks ago but then after looking into the affect Nixon's pardon had on Gerald Ford's reputation, I came to the suspicion that Pence might refrain from the same action if he thought he had a serious chance of running in 2024.

But not giving a pardon makes Pence another traitor to the cult.

 

[SebastianBlue]

I think its over. His relevance is melting away. The vast majority of his cronies in power are now fully engaged in covering their tracks, limiting liability, working on their exit and what they do in a post Trump world. We've seen a mass of evidence that there are no good people left working for Trump / Guliani its just the bottom of the barrel working in a barely functional set up. No one is going to take bullets for him now or even stick their head up to look. And he is not going to come out to face the music, he's just going to golf it out.

Not sure he has the guts to resign and take a Pence pardon. It's effectively an admission of guilt and even though he probably should do it and people will tell him to do it he will just do what he always does which is never admit guilt and brass everything out. I think he will just retire to Florida and wait for the prosecutors to call for him. I'm not sure Russia would offer him asylum - that is a bit like an admission of guilt for them and it would be a huge escalation in tension. Trump will be largely on his own post January.

I'd laugh my balls off if some of his appointees flee to Russia - it could happen. I suspect that many Trump enablers will find themselves in some very tricky situations - there are things that the Russians and GOP do not want discussed under threat of perjury. Bill Barr would be my favourite.

I ended up adding a bit after my original post which speaks to more reasons why I disagree that he is going to sulk in to docility now, but I fully understand why you and @SWP's back believe that may happen.

I do agree that Trump is unlikely to resign for an early Pence pardon (explained in the bit I added, as well) and that Russia will probably not offer asylum (I think they are more likely to want to silence someone like him than protect him).

And I, too, am looking forward to seeing what happens with the various lower level zealots after Trump is gone, including Barr, Pompeo, Miller, DeVos, Wolf, and Mnuchin. Oh, and of course several prominent senators and his family.

I have a feeling a few are going to get off with much lesser punishments than we would like, but there will likely be consequences (in some cases severe) for most of them.

 

[SebastianBlue]

The spelling, grammar and CAPS LOCK OFF is even more of giveaway than the message that he was nothing to do with the tweet.

THAT GOSE WITHOUT SEYING.