COVID-19 — Coronavirus

[Healdplace]

GM SCOREBOARD

Cases 759 which is up 137 on yesterday. 46% of NW total of 1636 cases.

3 wks v 2 wks v last wk v today: 1838 v 994 v 827 v 759 today. Which shows the slow down to a stall.



Manchester 179 – up from 139. Total cases 31, 772. Weekly 975. Highest score by Manchester in 10 days. Pop score up 32 to 5747. Weekly Pop stays at 176.

Wigan 105 – down from 106. Total cases 16, 976. Weekly 599. Pop score up 35 to 5168. Weekly Pop down 2 to 185.

Bolton 87 - up from 66, Total cases 15, 460. Weekly 495, Pop score up 31 to 5377. Weekly Pop down 1 to 173.

Bury 77 – up from 63. Total cases 10, 060. Now only Trafford with less than 10,000 cases across the pandemic in GM and at current rates they will stay there until late January. Weekly 428. Pop score up 40 – most in GM today and in a few days - to 5267. Weekly Pop up 7 to 223. Bury are the one place in GM struggling right now. Someone needs to find out why,

Rochdale 70 - up from 52. Total cases 12, 975. Weekly 478. Pop score up 32 to 5834. Weekly Pop down 2 to 215.

Salford 68 – up from 55. Total cases 13, 616. Weekly 350. Pop score up 27 to 5261. Weekly Pop up 1 to 136.

Oldham 62 - up from 47. Total cases 15, 066. Weekly 383. . Pop score up 26 to 6354. But good day here as Blackburn had a big rise in cases and its Pop was up by 50 - most in UK - so way ahead now as worst Pop in the UK yet at 6632 – over the hills and far away from Oldham when 2 months ago they were neck and neck – showing the improvement here despite it being the only other occupant of the 6000 club. Weekly Pop down 10 to 161. Real progress.

Stockport 58 – up from 44, Four of last 5 days have had 59 57, 58 and 58. This is GM right now The fall seems to have halted. With the main Winter months to come and the Christmas free for all this stall needs watching in GM over coming days across the county ijn case it turns into a rise. Total cases 10, 774. Weekly 341. Pop score up 20 to 3672. Weekly Pop stays at 116. More evidence that GM has plateaued.

Trafford 34 - up from 20. Total cases 8844. Only sub 10K total and not near going over in 2020\ at this rate. Weekly 210. Well clear as lowest in GM. Pop score up 14 to 3726. Cuts the gap to Stockport by another 6 to just 54 for overall Pop score lead when it was 250 a few weeks ago. Weekly Pop down 2 to just 88. Hard to fall much now without going into single figure cases per day. But now 28 clear of Stockport on the weekly Pop scoreboard.

Tameside 29 – down from 40. Unusual to see anyone beat Trafford but very low score here today. Total cases 10, 624. Weekly 293. Giving Trafford a run for this best weekly numbers in GM right now. Pop score up 13 to 4691 Lowest in GM today. Weekly Pop down by 12 to 130. Overtook Salford today for Weekly Pop Scores.

 

[squirtyflower]

Not true, as we are still under EU rules until January, and we could give approval whether a member or not.

Not for COVID response we aren’t , we wisely opted out although, at the time, the usual suspects said it was stupidity.

Not like anyone who hung on that particular horse will admit they were wrong

 

[Healdplace]

For andyhinch _ Cheshire East - stalling here too like GM and neighbour Stockport. 61 up 1 from successive scores of 60 in the previous two days. Again like Stockport at 57/58/59.

Total cases 9296. Pop score up 16 to 2420. Weekly Pop 118 down from 120. Stockport is at 116.

So as you see these two neighbour areas have pretty well identical numbers. But one is in tier 3 and the other in tier 2

Why people perceive these tiers as unfair laid bare.

It is like VAR refereeing two different teams in the same area in opposite ways Which as we know would never happen in the Premier League .....but imagine if it did then it would do what these tiers are doing and lead to frustration by those being penalised.

Utterly hypothetical analogy, of course. :)

 

[blueparrot]

Not for COVID response we aren’t , we wisely opted out although, at the time, the usual suspects said it was stupidity.

Not like anyone who hung on that particular horse will admit they were wrong

Opting out had nothing to do with approval of the covid vaccine,whether we were in the eu or leaving the eu, or had left the eu. We were free to approve the vaccine for UK use without waiting for eu approval in any circumstance. As any eu country may too.

 

[Bluesince1979]

Few pints and a little curry watching the blues today as a T2 resident in Cheshire east ..... cant tell u how good it felt

 

[Healdplace]

A statistician on Twitter has calculated the Pop score for each of the weeks in the past month to see how each nation fared in their different measures in November.

The Pop score is just the number of cases versus population of 100,000 as with the ones for individual towns and areas I post on here. The more cases the more the number rises. The less the more it falls. So you can judge it versus anywhere else with the fact that population numbers are differet.

These numbers are the national pop scores for the weeks ending:

7 Nov v 14 Nov v 21 Nov v 28 Nov v 5 Dec (TODAY). (Rounded up to nearest whole number as I do).

SCOTLAND 154 v 143 v 135 v 118 v 101 (TODAY):- as you see a steady fall in the cases and still happening, The well targeted and swiftly enacted local measures in Scotland have worked consistently and reduced cases by a third in a month. Hospital data is falling in the same way if you look at patient and ventiulator numbers in y daily data reports.

NORTHERN IRELAND 215 v 204 v 163 v 126 v 148:- The measures here were a circuit breaker and they started out nationally with numbers around where the highest place in GM is now and fell quickly by even more than Scotland, But then they plateaued - unfortunately much like we are starting to see GM do - and in the past 7 day cases have started to rise again, They have tried a second national circuit breaker in hopes of putting the brakes on.

ENGLAND 247 v 276 v 234 v 173 v 149:- The nationwide lockdown that just ended reduced the numbers well as you can see - probably better than either version of circuit breaker used above. But we may well be starting to see a stall and perhaps rise that NI did and even a slow rise driven by areas down south (where cases are going up more than in the north where they have slowed towards a halt but are at worst for now flat).

WALES 265 v 179 v 211 v 222 v 271: This is the really worrying pattern. They had a circuit breaker but started from a higher point than even England. Went down for just a week or so but have been relentlessly rising since and are now worse off than before they did anything.

Try to figure out from these numbers (not mine as noted but based on the actual stats and the comments are my interpretation not the person who collated the numbers) what actually worked and what did not and the best path we should all be following based on these various experiments.

 

[Healdplace]

Shemnel I tried to reply to your post on me not being neutral but it would not let me post saying you had removed it.

There was no need if you to do so if it was because you thought it might offend me as it did not.

I try to post the data neutrally and leave it for others to decide what it means.

But of course I do have my own opinions - just not based on politics as I am very apolitical and have voted for nearly every party at some point as I judge elections - local and national - on the issues and who I think has the best solution at that moment. Not what party they are with.

It is inevitable these will emerge in posts on here from me and anyone else. This is something that will be one of the big events in our lives. And at my age that includes a lot of extraordinary things I have done or witnessed as my career took me down fortunate pathways I will best not go into here.

So we are all going to see this through a personal perspective whilst trying (well I do try anyway but very likely do not always succeed) to see all sides as I know there are few clear cut answers here.

I posted that data on the four nations above before I saw your post as I am genuinely intrigued to know what it tells us about what worked best.

I don't know the answer. There may well not be one answer to what it tells us. There often isn't in this situation we are in right now. But we all should be interested in trying to find out.

 

[shemnel]

Shemnel I tried to reply to your post on me not being neutral but it would not let me post saying you had removed it.

There was no need if you to do so if it was because you thought it might offend me as it did not.

I try to post the data neutrally and leave it for others to decide what it means.

But of course I do have my own opinions - just not based on politics as I am very apolitical and have voted for nearly every party at some point as I judge elections - local and national - on the issues and who I think has the best solution at that moment. Not what party they are with.

It is inevitable these will emerge in posts on here from me and anyone else. This is something that will be one of the big events in our lives. And at my age that includes a lot of extraordinary things I have done or witnessed as my career took me down fortunate pathways I will best not go into here.

So we are all going to see this through a personal perspective whilst trying (well I do try anyway but very likely do not always succeed) to see all sides as I know there are few clear cut answers here.

I posted that data on the four nations above before I saw your post as I am genuinely intrigued to know what it tells us about what worked best.

I don't know the answer. There may well not be one answer to what it tells us. There often isn't in this situation we are in right now. But we all should be interested in trying to find out.

Yeah I thought I was being a bit snide and there wasn't much need for it so I deleted it.

Cheers for the reply though

 

[Healdplace]

Yeah I thought I was being a bit snide and there wasn't much need for it so I deleted it.

Cheers for the reply though

You were not. It was a fair observation and likely true. I will attempt to keep more neutral when posting any data and genuinely appreciate the reminder to try to do so.

 

[Bluesince1979]

You were not. It was a fair observation and likely true. I will attempt to keep more neutral when posting any data and genuinely appreciate the reminder to try to do so.

Dont not give your opinion