Another new Brexit thread

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

Add Rutte in as well. Dutch are pissed at Johnson, and they are usually on our side. Dublin will have Biden on speaker phone, given he hasn’t much else to do while he is waiting to assume office :)

The Dutch and Irish just don't matter. As blueinsa said it's Macron and Merkel that call the shots as they shove the most in the EU pot. NL and Italy are also contributors, but between them not as much even as we used to put in. Below that the minor net contributors will probably be looking for seven years of handouts post covid, and the rest are already dependent upon the EU so will do whatever Merkel wants.

 

[west didsblue]

The Dutch and Irish just don't matter. As blueinsa said it's Macron and Merkel that call the shots as they shove the most in the EU pot. NL and Italy are also contributors, but between them not as much even as we used to put in. Below that the minor net contributors will probably be looking for seven years of handouts post covid, and the rest are already dependent upon the EU so will do whatever Merkel wants.

Rubbish.
It’s been made very clear that a deal will have to be acceptable to Ireland for it to go through. The same will apply to the Netherlands although it’s unlikely they would veto it. The rest of the EU will go along with those most affected.

 

[Vic]

Wrong again - do keep up

It is actually preferable, rather than reasonable/acceptable - so long as we get concessions in other areas

If you understood the basics of negotiations this would be obvious to you

I'm sure it is preferable to previous posturing over how we wouldn't cave in to EU demands for agreements longer than the annual agreement with Norway.

I'd be impressed about the "obvious" if you could point to when you had advocated a three year transition before Frost conceded it (even the Daily Mail couldn't call it anything other than a concession).

 

[BobKowalski]

Who isn't pissed at our PM? :-)

Fair point.

 

[Northernstorirs]

why should they have any interest in the fortunes of a country that isn't an EU member? There are plenty in politics and on here just hoping for a collapse of the EU now we are out. Seems pretty equivalent to me.

Before I make my point, I think it is bonkers we are leaving especially during a global pandemic. The referendum was also a long time a go in political/economic terms and so much has happened since. We have had new governments and the US now has a new leader who is pro E.U. putting the UK to the back of their queue.

As a remainer it is still pretty to see the E.U would miss the UK's whopping contribution in terms of revenue. Off the top of my head I think the UK contribited the 2nd or 3rd highest amount of funds to the E.U. so would imagine that would leave a hole. There is also an anti E.U agenda in many countries (Italy, Netherlands), if the EU allowed the UK to flourish outside of the E.U then it would provide a catalyst for this movement in other existing EU countries. Making an example of the UK will put to bed this movement elsewhere.

Nobody is a winner with a tough or even no deal, the continent is heavily reliant on trade from the UK and will hurt their businesses just as much.

As I said I find it mad we are leaving. Very rich tory figures who will be the small minority who won't be impacted by Brexit or will benefit managed to dupe the working class in to voting for their agenda.

 

[Deleted member 77198]

This article seems to in some parts wilfully confuse the parts of fishing rights that have been sold to foreign companies with the issue of access to waters and governance of quotas being controlled by the EU. The industrial sale of fishing rights stands as I see it, the EU jurisdiction doesn't. I personally think we should impose our own quotas within those foreign owned rights - nothing to do with brexit / taking control really , more a case of preserving the marine environment. These supertrawlers are actually just giant hoovers and death machines with a processing plant on board. That bothers me more than a few Gallic fishing boats catching sardines off Cornwall tbh.

We tried to impose our own quotas decades ago when Spanish companies were registering in Britain but taking all their stocks back to Spain. But the EU stopped us putting those quotas in after Spain joined the EU and gave the Spanish companies the rights to them.

 

[Cheesy]

Always makes me laugh to see the wailing when the EU play hardball and contrast it with the delight from the same people when we try and do the same.

Got to be honest, but on here I think it's more the other way round. The EU (and in particular France) being lauded for playing hardball but when the UK does it we're just being stubborn.

And just so as you're aware, I'm not in favour of us leaving the EU, I've just accepted that it's going to happen.

 

[Saddleworth2]

The Dutch and Irish just don't matter. As blueinsa said it's Macron and Merkel that call the shots as they shove the most in the EU pot. NL and Italy are also contributors, but between them not as much even as we used to put in. Below that the minor net contributors will probably be looking for seven years of handouts post covid, and the rest are already dependent upon the EU so will do whatever Merkel wants.

Would have said that Ireland are pretty important in the final say given the implications for them.

 

[Vic]

So what's the real sticking point on level playing field? We've agreed competition rules and are now objecting to EU attempts to guarantee UK compliance, even as our trustworthy government seeks to legislate that we would not necessarily stick to any agreement. Is that it?

 

[jaseirai]

We tried to impose our own quotas decades ago when Spanish companies were registering in Britain but taking all their stocks back to Spain. But the EU stopped us putting those quotas in after Spain joined the EU and gave the Spanish companies the rights to them.

Culminating in Factortame and gave the anti-EU movement ammunition in the 90s. They were sold out by Heath who liked sailing not fishing.

Landmarks in law: the 90s fishing case that stoked UK Euroscepticism

Before Factortame, some UK politicians hadn’t fully grasped the power of EU law over parliament

www.theguardian.com

 

[Saddleworth2]

This article seems to in some parts wilfully confuse the parts of fishing rights that have been sold to foreign companies with the issue of access to waters and governance of quotas being controlled by the EU. The industrial sale of fishing rights stands as I see it, the EU jurisdiction doesn't. I personally think we should impose our own quotas within those foreign owned rights - nothing to do with brexit / taking control really , more a case of preserving the marine environment. These supertrawlers are actually just giant hoovers and death machines with a processing plant on board. That bothers me more than a few Gallic fishing boats catching sardines off Cornwall tbh.

I agree with your point about Industrial fishing. It should be banned irrespective of where it is. The practice will ultimately make our oceans as lifeless as Mars.

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

Always makes me laugh to see the wailing when the EU play hardball and contrast it with the delight from the same people when we try and do the same.

Could it be the EU have a viable walk away option and the political will to use it?

 

[Ancient Citizen]

Stressful my end, Mrs is pregnant

 

[BobKowalski]

So what's the real sticking point on level playing field? We've agreed competition rules and are now objecting to EU attempts to guarantee UK compliance, even as our trustworthy government seeks to legislate that we would not necessarily stick to any agreement. Is that it?

Pretty much. Fair to say there isn’t a great deal of trust in Johnson and his merry band of pilfering, law breaking cronies. Even our traditional allies, like Denmark and Netherlands aren’t buying anything we say, everyone wants it written in stone with legal recourse for LPF transgressions.

Given the absence of trust, or even a willingness to cooperate with each other I’ll stand by what I said a week or so back; that there won’t be a deal this year.

Negotiations will continue next year, there will always be negotiations, but between openly hostile parties with endless bickering and finger pointing. Relations with Europe will be in the deep freeze for a generation or two.

 

[BobKowalski]

Harsh. Promised. A free trade deal from Iceland to Russia. Reality. ‘...ended up with a free trade deal smaller than the United Kingdom with a trade barrier down the Irish Sea’

 

[Vic]

Got to be honest, but on here I think it's more the other way round. The EU (and in particular France) being lauded for playing hardball but when the UK does it we're just being stubborn.

And just so as you're aware, I'm not in favour of us leaving the EU, I've just accepted that it's going to happen.

It's already happened.

There are different things going on. One is wanting what's best for the UK. That was not leaving the EU which also happened to be the best for the EU. So the best now is keeping as much as possible of the big benefits while being less bothered about the little benefits of leaving (like the fanciful idea of revivng a lost era of the UK fishing industry).

At the same time, the people who were right need to reinforce that. One of the things Remainers were right about was the nonsense that Britain held all the cards, and the unicorn of keeping all the benefits without paying the club subs. The leave campaign was clear about the benefits or they would not have won by promising that we would be still be in a free trade zone from Iceland to the Russian border.

So it's a bit like wanting City to win but when you lose you can at least say I told you that would happen, putting that team out / electing that government / voting that way when the other team obviously had the better players. And a 0-0 draw means both teams lose.

 

[Ifwecouldjust.......]

So what's the real sticking point on level playing field? We've agreed competition rules and are now objecting to EU attempts to guarantee UK compliance, even as our trustworthy government seeks to legislate that we would not necessarily stick to any agreement. Is that it?

touched on by Rachel Riley on Marr this morning and as has been pointed out on this thread many times

Deregulation and a shredding of employment rights and protections. A move towards an American style economy.

 

[west didsblue]

Got to be honest, but on here I think it's more the other way round. The EU (and in particular France) being lauded for playing hardball but when the UK does it we're just being stubborn.

And just so as you're aware, I'm not in favour of us leaving the EU, I've just accepted that it's going to happen.

It’s already happened. We left on 31 Jan. But that isn’t enough for our government.

They appear to want to make the consequences of our departure as difficult as possible for the majority of the population in order to appease a small minority that will profit from it.

We are not in a position to play hardball because we don’t hold the best cards. The only one we’ve got is fish which in reality is worth next to fuck all to us economically but is valuable to the EU, but we’re treating it like the Crown Jewels.

The irony is that the EU can’t compromise much on LPF and governance because it would cause bigger problems within the EU than it would solve with the UK, so the only outcome where there’s a deal is the EU giving us a win on fish on exchange for us backing down on LPF and governance. It would give Johnson something to boast about but the reality would be that the EU have got what they wanted. Our win on fish, if it happens, would have little consequence to 99.9% of the population.

The alternative is No Deal which is shit for everyone but worse for us.

 

[mcfc1632]

It's exactly why I have always said the EU is France and Germany and the rest are along for the ride and it's exactly why I voted leave and would do so again tomorrow.

For those that can spend a few mins and deploy objectivity - I think that this offers a fairly good description of how things have operated and are reshaping now in the light of Covid and Brexit:

‘More Europe’ after Brexit | National Review

It brings out the accuracy of the German and French past controls and the current dynamics - and the previous role - always eventually futile - of the UK. It comments well on the emerging tensions between France and Germany

It provides helpful explanation of how the other 'contributors' are forced to reluctantly tag along. It is easy to understand why the debtors follow the lines - and also explains the exceptions e.g. Poland and Hungary. Surely, one has to feel massive sympathy for Holland, Sweden, Denmark and Austria?

Importantly also, there is fleeting reference to one of the key reasons that the UK, for its long-tern prosperity, absolutely must leave the EU and will benefit from a clean Brexit - I wonder how many of the die-hards would be able to swallow and accept the obvious truth. In this regard - for those willing to analyse - it becomes quite obvious what Macron's range of views are towards the terms the UK should leave on and also Merkel's - along with Holland, Sweden, Denmark and Austria - total preference for the UK to remain.

And for the couple of posters that bang on about opt-outs and vetoes there is some obvious explanation of why they will not be even a medium-term protection

There are also a couple of other gems to be considered as a result of what can be discerned for those with objectivity - which I will come back to rather than make this a longer post. It will be curious (well at least to me) to see the level of genuine analysis

 

[Vic]

Pretty much. Fair to say there isn’t a great deal of trust in Johnson and his merry band of pilfering, law breaking cronies. Even our traditional allies, like Denmark and Netherlands aren’t buying anything we say, everyone wants it written in stone with legal recourse for LPF transgressions.

Given the absence of trust, or even a willingness to cooperate with each other I’ll stand by what I said a week or so back; that there won’t be a deal this year.

Negotiations will continue next year, there will always be negotiations, but between openly hostile parties with endless bickering and finger pointing. Relations with Europe will be in the deep freeze for a generation or two.

We will always have some friends, like Guy Verhofstadt. Of course we need people in charge here who recognise a friend as someone who tells us the truth.