COVID-19 — Coronavirus

Status
Not open for further replies.
artfuldodger said:
If it’s 70% more transmissible and was noted around mid November, how soon would that be showing up in deaths if it was more deadly?
Click to expand...
I dont know, but look at Germanys death rates which are soaring, the country in Europe that has dealt with the virus better than any other is now recording in excess of 800 deaths a day and growing. Scary stuff.
 
SE here, definitely caught something about a week ago. Didn't know what it was, odd little symptoms. Saw two neighbours had ordered tests, so increasingly concerned it was COVID. But the symptoms keep changing, so I kept brushing it off.

Then today came back from my walk, had a glass of water, and yup, had a horrible itchy cough.

Later, in the shower I realised I had bruising around an injury from earlier in the year. And I'd had a totally unexplained bruise on the back of my hand come up before my eyes last week.

That's... not very comforting.

Please be very careful out there!
 
kaz7 said:
It was stupid to promise something in nov when the scientist were all telling him the winter would be bad, hell even i knew that
Click to expand...
Clearly this new variant is the differentiating factor, and the fact they are worried enough to shutdown the capital and cancel the biggest retail period of the year suggests the data coming out of Porton Down is very nasty indeed.
 
inbetween said:
Clearly this new variant is the differentiating factor, and the fact they are worried enough to shutdown the capital and cancel the biggest retail period of the year suggests the data coming out of Porton Down is very nasty indeed.
Click to expand...
Yes, this is a very worrying turn of events, i am not leaving my house again
 
BlueAnorak said:
If the new strain is 70% more infective than tge old one that's an averahe R0 of 5 27 as opposed to 3.1.
That also means herd immunity is about 81%
(1-(1/5 27))*100.
It also means the Oxford vaccine doesn't give herd immunity protection for those who haven't had it. 81% > 72.1% (efficacy) though it will dramatically reduce the infection multiplier within an existing infected population (Rx)
Click to expand...

Don't think that's right chief

None of the vaccines have been proven to stop transmission as yet

The efficacy is it stops xx% of people getting any symptoms

Oxford's % is still up in the air but it stops serious illness or death in 100% of cases in the trials

nothing to worry about with the vaccine at the moment
 
Ban-jani said:
Do we know what this new variation means for the vaccine?

Does the vaccine still stop it?
Click to expand...

There is more than one type of flu jab am I correct, and they predict which one to use each year, so it's never 100% effective. Virus's change, so they can still exist, I imagine based on that there can't be a one sized fits all vaccine. Correct me if I am wrong? It's here now, and isn't going anywhere like all of the other coronvirus's out there, we ( well not us ) just need to find a better way of dealing with it and moving forward.
 
Del_Bosque said:
Don't think that's right chief

None of the vaccines have been proven to stop transmission as yet

The efficacy is it stops xx% of people getting any symptoms

Oxford's % is still up in the air but it stops serious illness or death in 100% of cases in the trials

nothing to worry about with the vaccine at the moment
Click to expand...
It isnt. I was talking bollox. I adjusted the last para. Too slowly it would appear. You can't compare herd immunity and vaccine efficacy.
 
BlueAnorak said:
If the new strain is 70% more infective than the old one that's an average R0 of 5 27 as opposed to 3.1.
That also means herd immunity is about 81%
Basic calculation is (1-(1/5.27))*100.
It also means herd iimmunity will be more difficult to achieve
As 81% of the population will have to be inocculated to reach heard immunity
Click to expand...
Changed to as above.
 
OK we all know the Govt. aren't up to it.
But big questions have to be asked of Vallance and Whitty as to why they failed to stand up and be counted and allowed the Govt. under the cover of following the science to get to this point.
 
Nicola is up

New variant suggests this is a very serious situation , the most dangerous so far

Firm action needed now , preventative measures needed

Not as bad in scotland as elsewhere but they do have some of the variant in scotland

No evidence it will be more deadly or affect the vaccines but it can put up the R by 0.4

She hopes people accept the measures , she wishes she had acted sooner in feb/march

Encourages people to redouble their efforts

Travel ban , unless necessary, staying in place over the holidays. Non essential international travel discouraged

Indoor mixing in bubble dec 25 th only , stay outside as much as possible , do not stay overnight if possible
 
Len Rum said:
OK we all know the Govt. aren't up to it.
But big questions have to be asked of Vallance and Whitty as to why they failed to stand up and be counted and allowed the Govt. under the cover of following the science to get to this point.
Click to expand...
Because science advises and gov decide , whitty has said that all along
 
Sturgeon now admitting she didn't act quickly enough in late Feb/early March.
I don't rate her at all but at the truth drug is kicking in and she's being honest.
Time for BloJo to do the same.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Unread Posts

Don't have an account? Register now and see fewer ads!

SIGN UP
Back
Top