Coronavirus (2021) thread

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Herd immunity is the goal.
After discovering that those under 30 without underlying conditions are not particularly at risk, we should have been giving low metered doses of the virus to isolated healthy under 30 volunteers since August.
If we had, the impact of infections of the new strain would be so much lower
 
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BlueAnorak said:
It isn't - its from the SAGE brains trust. Led by Whitty and Valance.
From a population statistics point of view they are bang on.
it's a numbers game.
Double the number of people vaccinated gets us closer to the herd immunity figure between 70%-80%. And as one dose will stop patients dying if they catch it.
3m vaccinated a week will get us to heard immunity by the start of April. 4m by Early March.
www.telegraph.co.uk

Chris Whitty moves to head off GPs' rebellion over Pfizer Covid vaccine doses

Chief medical officer tells doctors that 'public will understand and thank us' for administering as many first doses as possible
www.telegraph.co.uk www.telegraph.co.uk
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On the other side of it what’s the amount of antibodies in the general population who have already had covid? We are up at two and a half million cases confirmed, if the country tracks at the same amount of cases of 50,000 a day which equates to what will be 1.4 million cases a month. When all the asymptotic and confirmed cases collide with the buffer of a vaccine we hopefully see this horrid virus disappear.
 
unicorn said:
I'm reassured that the Professors are backing this decision, thanks for that @BlueAnorak

My (relatively minor) problem is having one set of parents still going for the second jab on Sunday while the in-laws have been cancelled and having to explain that divergence in vaccination to scared 80+ folk is a challenge.
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Inoculating everyone over 85 properly with 2 jabs (the highest at risk part of the population) is sensible as they are the most at risk from dying if they catch the virus and become ill after i jab.
 
Herd immunity would be great but we don't yet know how effective the vaccines are at blocking transmission.
Evidence that they block symptomatic disease is pretty good , evidence that they block asymptomatic infection is lacking.
 
Northernstorirs said:
Not helped by a Mayor who decides to put on the fireworks at cost of the tax payer. Great idea to promote crowds during a pandemic.

Didn't notice any public funded displays in Manchester..
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The displays in the capital are paid for via sponsorships, tickets sold and the London taxpayer. Plus, Lambeth and Westminster councils most likely use resources for cleaning the streets after the event. My understanding is that the events are not paid for by the 'taxpayers', in general.

As someone who gives money to the GLA via a Council Tax precept, I don't mind even if others in the country, like yourself, benefit.

There were no London fireworks this year.
 
Marvin said:
I think this came from the scientific community rather than politicians. It maybe criticised by individual GPs and practises who have to reorganise appointments but I think the rationale came from the medical community. I saw an interview with Professor Sarah Gilbert whose group developed the vaccine and she described it as a pragmatic decision to reach the maximum number of people.
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My father in law has his 2nd jab on Tuesday and was contacted by his GP yesterday to say it’s going ahead. Apparently GPs are being given some flexibility regarding 2nd jabs.
 
Cityfan said:
Herd immunity would be great but we don't yet know how effective the vaccines are at blocking transmission.
Evidence that they block symptomatic disease is pretty good , evidence that they block asymptomatic infection is lacking.
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True, but it's a numbers game and the brains trust have built that into their infection models.
 
Healdplace said:
Thank you Ric and everyone. This was appreciated. But like all of you I will be more than happy when the day comes - as it will - when I no longer need to do this. Hopefully now starting to become visible on the horizon.
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Oh no...you’ll have to find something less nefarious to post daily updates on...we’ll miss you otherwise!

Hugely appreciated by the way.
Thank you.
 
By the way at 2 am after we had celebrated new year virtually with our families I was talking to my best friend of over half a century. As I have mentioned before she is one of the most vulnerable in the UK. In her late 80s with severe asthma caused by a genetic condition that killed her son as a young man just after he married with a small baby he never got to know. Last Christmas she was in hospital with pneumonia and sepsis and they were amazed she survived. She has been in 'heart failure' ever since needing regular hospital treatment.

Yesterday she was asked to go for an appointment at Salford Royal where they have the vaccine (it is one of the two hubs that have had it for nearly a month) in mid January but no promise of a vaccine whilst putting herself through the ordeal of going there,

So I ran the ap for her. I had done it before astonished she was not one of the first few thousand invited to Salford were she is on first name terms with most of the doctors she has been so often. I had done that once before and it had suggested she would be getting it first week in January. Something she was advised by phone to be prepared to do next week.

Last night when I ran it for her her date had now changed to late March!

My own (which had been March - as I am happily a bit younger with no such health concerns right now) is now showing June,

I imagine this is the 3 months push back to the second dose creating these changes and so the last possible date not the likely date. So I could reassure her on this. But there are going to be a lot of elderly people running this or having it run for them really concerned that it implies they are now suddenly miles further from protection than they thought they were.

So it is not a very good piece of messaging to create that impression.
 
Just hearing on the news as I write that they have now suddenly realised this is causing real distress to elderly people thinking their hopes and a second date given to them to go to be fully protected is now being axed by the thousands. Some in tears when told.

How on Earth does anyone making such moves - however justified they might be medically to give out more first doses - NOT see this coming and act proactively not after the damage is done?
 
The app that was posted on here?

It’s not affiliated with the NHS roll out in anyway, wouldn’t be worrying about it.

It’s something someone from a private enterprise has knocked up with a lot of assumptions on stats

edit: is she waiting for her first jab still? Or is it the second that’s been pushed out?
 
First piece of news I have is not good. I had it late last night but decided not to spoil the optimism of New Year's Eve.

England hospital data updated to yesterday

In those 24 hours:-

Patients UP 926 to 22, 713

Ventilator beds UP a scary 126 in one go to 1854.

These are the early signs of the price of the pre Christmas period. Really frightening where this might go when the cost of Christmas and New Year kicks in.
 
Healdplace said:
Just hearing on the news as I write that they have now suddenly realised this is causing real distress to elderly people thinking their hopes and a second date given to them to go to be fully protected is now being axed by the thousands. Some in tears when told.

How on Earth does anyone making such moves - however justified they might be medically to give out more first doses - NOT see this coming and act proactively not after the damage is done?
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If it's the latest second dose it's kind of acceptable as the AZ vaccine first dose apparently provides a level of immunity. It would be disappointing if the date for your friend has been moved for the initial vaccine, given the time of year and the rate of infection it's imperative vulnerable people get the jab ASAP.
 
Del_Bosque said:
The app that was posted on here?

It’s not affiliated with the NHS roll out in anyway, wouldn’t be worrying about it.

It’s something someone from a private enterprise has knocked up with a lot of assumptions on stats

edit: is she waiting for her first jab still? Or is it the second that’s been pushed out?
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I understand that as - whilst not remotely tech savvy - I have worked with computers in my career since 1973 when they were sci fi and were the size of a house!

But it is all over the media with links to it everywhere and most elderly people have limited understanding of technology to figure that out for themselves. They will assume it is official data,

That should have been anticipated.
 
Healdplace said:
Just hearing on the news as I write that they have now suddenly realised this is causing real distress to elderly people thinking their hopes and a second date given to them to go to be fully protected is now being axed by the thousands. Some in tears when told.

How on Earth does anyone making such moves - however justified they might be medically to give out more first doses - NOT see this coming and act proactively not after the damage is done?
Click to expand...

I would imagine that most of those were given strong reminders when they went for the first dose that they really had to return to have the second dose. Now, there will be people thinking they are being denied something they were told they definitely needed and thus consider themselves highly vulnerable again and fretting needlessly.
 
hammocity said:
If it's the latest second dose it's kind of acceptable as the AZ vaccine first dose apparently provides a level of immunity. It would be disappointing if the date for your friend has been moved for the initial vaccine, given the time of year and the rate of infection it's imperative vulnerable people get the jab ASAP.
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They are doing it with all the vaccines not just AZ.
 
Gabriel said:
I would imagine that most of those were given strong reminders when they went for the first dose that they really had to return to have the second dose. Now, there will be people thinking they are being denied something they were told they definitely needed and thus consider themselves highly vulnerable again and fretting needlessly.
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My mum being a case in point.

I thought I’d head it off at the pass, she had her first jab on the 20th Dec and is down for next one on the 10th Jan. I told her yesterday that she should expect to hear them cancel her appt, yet I could tell she just thought I was talking rubbish. Anyway, this morning she has seen somewhere in paper or on the telly about the delay and she’s now worried again after starting to feel more positive. I tried to explain about levels of immunity but I may as well have been talking to my dog.
 
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