Coronavirus (2021) thread

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uk cases by specimen date per 100k, seven day rolling sum (up to Dec 29th but now including the very uncertain data up to 2nd Jan).

there are obvious 'issues' around the festive period which will show as flashy peaks and troughs, even with this simple smoothing. Predict about 4 more days of data to get the trend sorted to NYE.

edit: i have decided to adjust the graph to show the very uncertain numbers from the last 5 days. These numbers will only go up, as they are added to over time, so they can be misleading as they nearly always show a downward trend. However this time, i think it's an important illustration that the latest data is still increasing on the 30th/31st, and is still incomplete. covid_rates_REGIONAL.png
 
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Marvin said:
Yes. I strongly agree with this but I am concerned about the variants, and vaccine evasion.
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Don’t think there will be much evasion, what there is though will be more younger middle aged, than over 65s.
Ever older person I’ve spoken to can’t wait to get it and start making the most of their later years. And though it sounds a bit morbid, seeing their friends and saying goodbye to their friends sick in hospitals / care homes or at funerals, they are finding not doing that that the most upsetting.
 
blueparrot said:
Don’t think there will be much evasion, what there is though will be more younger middle aged, than over 65s.
Ever older person I’ve spoken to can’t wait to get it and start making the most of their later years. And though it sounds a bit morbid, seeing their friends and saying goodbye to their friends sick in hospitals / care homes or at funerals, they are finding not doing that that the most upsetting.
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Real fear of death seems to knock any anti-vax shit on its head immediately.
 
kippaxwarrior said:
Lots of schools in Manchester not re-opening(i would imagine that's the case around the country) Surely its matter of days or even hours before an announcement is made
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This might help in buying us time but lockdowns just delay the inevitable (although I practise social distancing too!). Ultimately it's immunity that matters. What will be devastating is if the virus evolves in such a way that immunity from infection is rendered less efficient. From what all the experts have said the vaccines should still work, but months after the discovery of the variants we still don't know.

Encouragingly we're not hearing thousands of reports from the South East of repeat infections. For example, if the variant had evaded the antibodies from to the wild-type, surely we'd see it in repeat infections in hospital workers? There's also the South African variant too.
 
Marvin said:
This might help in buying us time but lockdowns just delay the inevitable (although I practise social distancing too!). Ultimately it's immunity that matters. What will be devastating is if the virus evolves in such a way that immunity from infection is rendered less efficient. From what all the experts have said the vaccines should still work, but months after the discovery of the variants we still don't know.

Encouragingly we're not hearing thousands of reports from the South East of repeat infections. For example, if the variant had evaded the antibodies from to the wild-type, surely we'd see it in repeat infections in hospital workers? There's also the South African variant too.
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So you want schools to remind open?

Are you a parent of a young child? Just asking as my 7 year old lad us due back in on Wednesday and I'm becoming increasingly concerned about his welfare if he goes back due to infection rates soaring.

For me his wellbeing
comes before anything else and that includes his education
 
domalino said:
It doesn't matter, the protection offered by the first dose is enough to stop the pandemic as a public health crisis.
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The thing is I doubt the government will reopen things until everyone has had their two doses, add that to not much data yet on reduction in transmission, and whether the Oxford vaccine protects the over 65s adequately, it’s gonna be a long year. Plus I’ve heard the health secretary is worried about the South African variant
 
kippaxwarrior said:
So you want schools to remind open?

Are you a parent of a young child? Just asking as my 7 year old lad us due back in on Wednesday and I'm becoming increasingly concerned about his welfare if he goes back due to infection rates soaring.

For me his wellbeing
comes before anything else and that includes his education
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We have a 6 and a 9 year old, due back Thursday. Fortunately our school hasn’t had any cases, no years sent home.
For me their well being is so much more than the virus. Mentally the youngests behaviour deteriorated terribly during the first lockdown and improved once returned.
 
Tonster said:
We have a 6 and a 9 year old, due back Thursday. Fortunately our school hasn’t had any cases, no years sent home.
For me their well being is so much more than the virus. Mentally the youngests behaviour deteriorated terribly during the first lockdown and improved once returned.
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Its tough mate. Thankfully my son wasn't affected that much and his behaviour stayed the same during the summer. He missed his friends but once we got into a routine he was fine. Me and me ex are in a lucky position that we are both working from so we can give him the attention he needs and I understand a lot of parents would struggle to do that but like you said his welfare and wellbeing elicpses everting else
 
kippaxwarrior said:
So you want schools to remind open?

Are you a parent of a young child? Just asking as my 7 year old lad us due back in on Wednesday and I'm becoming increasingly concerned about his welfare if he goes back due to infection rates soaring.

For me his wellbeing
comes before anything else and that includes his education
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I don't have kids but I absolutely agree with this. As much as this has played havoc with children's education over the past 9 months, a 7 year old has plenty of time on their side to pull it back. Obviously it's a bit different for, say, a 15 year old with GCSEs coming up but wellbeing should trump everything else for me, and with the vaccine rollout it would probably only be another couple of months or so before we get some kind of normality back.
 
domalino said:
Over 90% of the deaths come from the 12.3m people over 65 years.

Given how many have already been done, roughly 5 weeks of 2 million vaccines a week and this pandemic is effectively over.


All I want to hear from the government is how they are going to hit that number, how they're going to solve the waiting time issue and go from 400 GP offices to over 1000 in 2 weeks. Because so far I'm not seeing anything but vague hopes.
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This is pretty good, from head of Oxford Hospitals Trust, so there's insight on vaccine side development side and on the NHS practicalities. He's Belgian so it needs google translating.

www.tijd.be

Belgische Oxford-ziekenhuischef: 'Britten vaccineren tegen eind januari 6 miljoen mensen'

'De Britse zorg betaalt een zware prijs voor de hoofdstad Londen die in de aanloop naar kerst deed alsof het virus niet bestond', zegt Bruno Holthof, de CEO van het universitaire ziekenhuis van Oxford. 'Daarom wordt nu een race tegen de klok gelopen.'
www.tijd.be www.tijd.be
 
M18CTID said:
I don't have kids but I absolutely agree with this. As much as this has played havoc with children's education over the past 9 months, a 7 year old has plenty of time on their side to pull it back. Obviously it's a bit different for, say, a 15 year old with GCSEs coming up but wellbeing should trump everything else for me, and with the vaccine rollout it would probably only be another couple of months or so before we get some kind of normality back.
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It's hard because some kids will be fine but others not. It's an incredibly important part of their lives and for some children constant disruption from normal/routine has massive psychological effects which can't always be rectified, not straight away anyway.
 
iceman said:
Should be vaccinating 24/7
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Maybe we will, but volunteers will need recruiting. My daughter saying staff at her hospital have been asked, to work days off, first to staff places outside her hospital were patients have been moved to to make room for covid cases, secondly to do vaccinations. Most have said no, they are too exhausted physically and emotionally and need their days off.
Volunteers may be found from other sources to do 24 hours but it's easier said than done.
 
blueparrot said:
Maybe we will, but volunteers will need recruiting. My daughter saying staff at her hospital have been asked, to work days off, first to staff places outside her hospital were patients have been moved to to make room for covid cases, secondly to do vaccinations. Most have said no, they are too exhausted physically and emotionally and need their days off.
Volunteers may be found from other sources to do 24 hours but it's easier said than done.
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national lockdown or volunteers form the hospitality industry who cannot work would free up some people to be trained and administer vaccinations.
 
middlewichblue said:
national lockdown or volunteers form the hospitality industry who cannot work would free up some people to be trained and administer vaccinations.
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Unless they sort out this idiocy we will never get people vaccinated in time, the country should be put on a war like footing to get these jabs done, all possible means explored and delivered.

Too much politics not enough actual doing.

Coronavirus: Medics complain of 'bureaucracy' in bid to join Covid vaccine effort - BBC News
 
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