Coronavirus (2021) thread

Status
Not open for further replies.
Scotland data today:

Rather Worrying, Still rising.

Deaths 78 (it was 68 last Thursday)

Cases 2649 (it was 2622 last week)

Positivity 11.3% - up from 10.1% last week.

Patients 1467 - up 83 in last 24 hours. Now almost the number at the peak in April (It was 1520 at peak in mid April)

Ventilator beds 100 - up 5 in day and nearly double the week before Christmas.
 
Last edited:
Healdplace said:
Scotland data today:

Rather Worrying, Still rising.

Deaths 78 (it was 68 last Thursday)

Cases 2649 (it was 2622 last week)

Positivity 11.3% - up from 10.1% last week.

Patients 1467 - up 83 in last 24 hours. Now almost the number at the peak in April
Click to expand...
See a levelling of cases 2 weeks post Christmas as slightly more encouraging, not great but if it’s our peak over the next week then we should head down second half of January.
 
blueparrot said:
See a levelling of cases 2 weeks post Christmas as slightly more encouraging, not great but if it’s our peak over the next week then we should head down second half of January.
Click to expand...
Hopefully - there are a few indicators the peak may be in about 3rd week of January. But with the virulence of this new strain predictions are hard to make.

It went down slowly last time taking about 2 months to get really low after the peak.

Seems unlikely it will be faster this time. But the vaccine is the X Factor in the equation we can only wait to see how it will impact things. Deaths probably. Cases less likely as the ones catching it will not be having it over the next few weeks in any numbers .
 
Eds said:
We have the NYE shenanagins to factor in next week in terms of infections
Click to expand...
Yes, that's why I’m hoping it stays fairly level until about the 15th,or at the very least keeps under the 3000 mark, before reducing from there. I don’t see it reducing until the week after next though.
 
I will start doing this DvC - Deaths v Cases from today as it was not worth doing over the past few days because the daily data reporting was all messed up until today due to the holidays and lots of catch up.

But DvC should be a number we start to see steadily fall.

It will always still be compromised by the lag in reporting deaths at weekends so it is likely more valuable to base it on the finalised data allocated to days a week or so later.

But that number will keep changing for weeks after the fact as new deaths are back allocated so I will stick with the day to day one even with its flaws.
 
Johnson has only now decided to use the Army to help roll out the vaccine? It was obvious to many on here that this was likely to be needed, hes just making it up as he goes along.

They clearly had few viable plans in place to vaccinate millions, yet they have known for months this day was coming. Shambolic!
 
Churchlawtonblue said:
Johnson has only now decided to use the Army to help roll out the vaccine? It was obvious to many on here that this was likely to be needed, hes just making it up as he goes along.

They clearly had few viable plans in place to vaccinate millions, yet they have known for months this day was coming. Shambolic!
Click to expand...

I haven't seen that, but I agree.

This is a job for organised logistics people, and it's unreasonable to expect health administrators to do it.
 
Healdplace said:
I think we should start a new measure to monitor now.

Deaths per day v cases per day.

This SHOULD start to fall under the influence of the vaccine.

It will be the main way to check visually if it is.
Click to expand...

Suggestion: Look at age of deaths as a surrogate for vaccine impact.

Deaths vs cases has a big lag and both are quite erratic day by day. But vaccine rollout is by age, should give a very direct impact.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Suggestion: Look at age of deaths as a surrogate for vaccine impact.

Deaths vs cases has a big lag and both are quite erratic day by day. But vaccine rollout is by age, should give a very direct impact.
Click to expand...
I post the England hospital age range numbers every day so tracking changes there will be obvious.

But they are in limited bands - 0 - 19, 20 - 39. 40 - 59, 60 - 79 and 80+

And when I can get them the N Ireland data too - but in the same age ranges above.

Especially problematic as the vaccination bands are narrower and only 70 upwards for now.

If anyone has access to better daily data they can easily calculate the DvC that way and post it.

Would be very illuminating I agree.
 
Birmingham about to run out of Pfizer vaccine, and have no delivery of AZ vaccine. They want to know why.

Hancock goes to GP in London to promote the vaccine, but they don't have any yet!
 
Healdplace said:
I post the England hospital age range numbers every day so tracking changes there will be obvious.

But they are in limited bands - 0 - 19, 20 - 39. 40 - 59, 60 - 79 and 80+

And when I can get them the N Ireland data too - but in the same age ranges above.

Especially problematic as the vaccination bands are narrower and only 70 upwards for now.

If anyone has access to better daily data they can easily calculate the DvC that way and post it.

Would be very illuminating I agree.
Click to expand...

Tracking % 80+ would give a very good indication of vaccine impact I think.
 
Think it will be best as you say to look just at the over 80s as the DvC is too fluid day to day to be meaningful. Over 80s will be the key.

% of deaths in that age range should noticeably fall.

And the England hospital deaths will be the easiest visual monitor there.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Unread Posts

Don't have an account? Register now and see fewer ads!

SIGN UP
Back
Top