I wonder what the worst case scenario is if this happens. We were told at the start by Imperial College to expect 500,000 deaths if we just went for herd immunity. Presumably with a case fatality rate of about 1 per cent that figure is not wildly out.
Yeah, reduced by maybe 0.1 for every vaccination of the highly vulnerable (mortality is as high as 10% for over 80s).
And that was unmitigated (no restrictions) (slower transmission results in less overall deaths), I think the mitigated scenario was 250,000?
But of course if hospitals are truly overwhelmed that could be worse.
Incidentally it's the IFR ( infection fatality ratio) estimated at 1%. That's deaths per actual infection.
The case fatality rate, CFR, is deaths per positive test. The CFR will be higher than the IFR because we don't find all infections. So far, the CFR is roughly 0.3% (2.7 million positives, 75000 deaths).
But into 6 figures more dead by end March without action, almost certainly.
[Edit - as pointed out below should read CFR 3%, not 0.3%]