Yeah, reduced by maybe 0.1 for every vaccination of the highly vulnerable (mortality is as high as 10% for over 80s).
And that was unmitigated (no restrictions) (slower transmission results in less overall deaths), I think the mitigated scenario was 250,000?
But of course if hospitals are truly overwhelmed that could be worse.
Incidentally it's the IFR ( infection fatality ratio) estimated at 1%. That's deaths per actual infection.
The case fatality rate, CFR, is deaths per positive test. The CFR will be higher than the IFR because we don't find all infections. So far, the CFR is roughly 0.3% (2.7 million positives, 75000 deaths).
But into 6 figures more dead by end March without action, almost certainly.