Coronavirus (2021) thread

Status
Not open for further replies.
Healdplace said:
2.8% iirc was the fatality rate based on deaths v cases recorded
Click to expand...

That's the case fatality rate - CFR - % of positive tests that result in a death.

The infection fatality rate - IFR - used in the study is lower - because not all infections are discovered.
 
hcblue95 said:
I agree, I find that incredibly hard to believe.
Click to expand...
Do the calculations yourself on a national basis with known IFR rates. I posted it on here before their study even came out and I got almost the same figure for the nation (easy calculation to do). They got 22.5% of UK population infected as at 3rd January. Infections are masssively weighted towards urban areas in their data.
 
On that data above - btw - we see another suggestion it is true.

Stockport is having big cases numbers and Oldham low right now. Why?

The opposite of intuition but perfectly logical if Oldham has a lower number of people left to be infected as it has already had a quarter who have been - as opposed to Stockport at the other extreme with 15% and so the most in GM left to be infected.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
That's the case fatality rate - CFR - % of positive tests that result in a death.

The infection fatality rate - IFR - used in the study is lower - because not all infections are discovered.
Click to expand...
That was my point, I thought.

I am not a statistician so I defer to your judgement here but there seemed too many deaths for the number of cases reported to match the expected mortality rate so either GM is a death hot spot for other reasons or there are far more cases than we record to bring that number down.

I worked on that assumption. But it could be GM is full of unfit unwell people too perhaps.
 
Last edited:
Healdplace said:
That was my point, I thought.

I am not a statistician so I defer to your judgement here but there seemed too many deaths for the number of cases reported to match the expected mortality rate so either GM is a death hot spot for other reasons or there are far more cases than we record to bring that number down.

I worked on that assumption. But it could be GM is full of unfit unwell people too perhaps.
Click to expand...
Agree - there are far more cases than we detect. That's universally accepted.
 
Almost every bed on the ward is taken but no patient voices can be heard. The only sound is the constant bleeping of the life support machines.

I am standing in the children's intensive care unit at St Mary's Hospital in central London.

But there are no sick children here. It is full of critically ill adults. Almost every single one is on life support.

news.sky.com

COVID-19: Inside the children's ICU dedicated to saving adult coronavirus patients

The silence is deafening.
news.sky.com news.sky.com
 
Northern Ireland data:

Deaths 16 - it was 17 last week.

5 in care homes, 11 hospital.

Care home outbreaks still a big issue here up at 142 now. It was around 90 pre Christmas.


Cases 973 - it was 1410 last week.

This was at 27.1% positivity. Fairly low for NI which does few tests relatively.

Patients are a big worry though - 973 - up 222 in two days.

And ventilated 44 - up 6 in two days.

So cases coming down but the legacy of the Christmas period feeding into big influxes and pressure on hospitals and icu is clrear and deaths rises will sadly follow.
 
Let me just reiterate that the ONS said there were 4.4m across the UK who had been infected by mid December. 4.4m out of 68m. That's over a period of 10 months.

How many new infections have we had in the last 4 weeks? A couple of million? 4 million?

If the total number of infections has *doubled* since mid December - a pretty staggering stat if true - then we're still only at less than 10m infected out of a population of 68m.
 
tolmie's hairdoo said:
I'm sure the vaccine has yet to be even tested in kids under the age of 13?

A large swathe of the populous may remain major spreaders for a good while to come yet?

I have read a study from Texas today that people who have had Covid can essentially consider themselves having the same levels of immunity as people now being vaccinated, certainly for between five and ten months.
Click to expand...

You're correct that the young haven't had it tested.

I cannot believe that the pharma companies are not currently working out how to do so, but it's maybe tricky if very low numbers are getting ill from it.
 
Chippy_boy said:
Let me just reiterate that the ONS said there were 4.4m across the UK who had been infected by mid December. 4.4m out of 68m. That's over a period of 10 months.

How many new infections have we had in the last 4 weeks? A couple of million? 4 million?

If the total number of infections has *doubled* since mid December - a pretty staggering stat if true - then we're still only at less than 10m infected out of a population of 68m.
Click to expand...

i think you might have something wrong there, either the start or end date, or something. where did you get the 4.4m? even if you use the ONS predicitons of weekly prevalence from May to Dec you get more than 4.4m

back of envelope for some context:

using ONS figures of weekly prevalence estimates in England (the '1 in 85 people' stuff they publish), which have run from April 26 to the latest one for week ending 30th Dec, you get an estimate of 9.7m infections. From 31 Dec to now, going by recent trends, it is not unreasonable to estimate 1m infections per week for 2 weeks. PRE April 26 is very very uncertain, but you can be 100% sure it isnt the ~150,000 cases recorded, and probably even 1m is conservative, but let's use it (if IFR remains ~1% throughout, up to Apr 26 could be ca. 2.3m based on 23k deaths).

9.7m + 2m + 1m = 12.7m or 22.6% of England. And that's using a conservative 1m pre Apr 26th.

But of course that time series is modelled. it's all uncertain but i would be confident it aint less than 10m in England alone.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, UK - Office for National Statistics

Estimates for England, Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland.
www.ons.gov.uk
 
Last edited:
everythingchangesbutblue said:
I may be wrong but 38.6 would not be enough for herd immunity anyway and if the R is 1.1 then cases would still rise. Along with healdplace's numbers indicating GM may not be rising as fast i'm inclined to think that it may not be too far off an estimate. Though that is just my own thinking and could be bollocks.
Click to expand...
There are other minor adjustments to apply but basically, herd immunity = 1- 1/R0.
R0 for Singapore/Italian Strain = 2.43 to 3.10, Max HE = 67.74%
R0 for Kent Strain = 2.82 to 4.03, Max HE = 75 19%
So Herd immunity level has gone up by a maximum of 7.74%. Which means another 7.74% need to catch it or be injected with the vaccine till we get to herd immunity.
 
Last edited:
More on 884 England hospital deaths:

REGIONS:-

209 South East , 185 London, 175 Midlands, 117 East, 80 North West, 80 NE & Yorkshire, 38 South West.


3 wks v 2 wks v last wk v TODAY: - TOTAL / NW TOTAL / NW % OF ENGLAND TOTAL

350 / 44 NW / 13% - that was the last pre Christmas number

529 / 73 NW / 14% - reported New Years Eve - so that Christmas/New Year middle period

661 /49 NW / 7% - reported 7 Jan so start of the pre Christmas big spike that locked down London.

884 / 80 NW / 9% TODAY - As you see more than doubled since Christmas. We will be starting to see the deaths resulting from Christmas but early into that so expect worse to come for next week or two

North West - nonetheless - coming out of this still as relatively well - BUT - cases have spiked a week or two after the south which is now going down.

So it would be unfortunately likely we will see NW climb and southern regions fall in next few weeks but Yorkshire - still well under control - to be down where NW is on its own with the South West which is actually VERY high in proportion - even though usually lowest - because it is the smallest and mostly rural region.
 
Last edited:
MillionMilesAway said:
You're correct that the young haven't had it tested.

I cannot believe that the pharma companies are not currently working out how to do so, but it's maybe tricky if very low numbers are getting ill from it.
Click to expand...
I can’t imagine how that would work, although I assume it has in the past? I think it would be difficult enough to persuade parents to allow their children to be vaccinated for something that barely makes them ill, but to get consent for them to be part of a trial would be even harder.
 
Out of interest, when everyone is vaccinated and 'covid' becomes part of every day life...

do you reckon we will still have daily figures ?
 
The Good news is that the Tausami has subsided in the West Midlands hospitals. New hospital admissions have dramatically fallen today. Areas adjacent to the West Midlands are still having major problems though.
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS BY AGE:

20 - 39 (7) 0,7%

40 - 59 (60) 6.8%

60 - 79 (314) 35.6%

80 + (503) 56.9%

No sign of any obvious shifts here.

But then data I posted the other day shows that a huge majority of the deaths are occurring over 70 and even 5 year bands up from 60 onward show major differences,

So working from these 20 year bands gov.uk record to look for changes is likely pointless.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Unread Posts

Don't have an account? Register now and see fewer ads!

SIGN UP
Back
Top