Coronavirus (2021) thread

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BlueAnorak said:
Not wishing to downplay the effect of Covid-19, but In many respects it's good that the predicted virus "X" was Covid-19 and not something really lethal. We now have medical technology weapons to combat something nasty.
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It has been argued that COVID 19 is in the sweetspot for pandemics: lethal enough to kill a lot of people, but not so lethal that we're actually prepared to eliminate it. I'm not saying that's right, but you can see the argument; if the whole world reacted as China did there would be no COVID.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
It has been argued that COVID 19 is in the sweetspot for pandemics: lethal enough to kill a lot of people, but not so lethal that we're actually prepared to eliminate it. I'm not saying that's right, but you can see the argument; if the whole world reacted as China did there would be no COVID.
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Yeah I heard the same. if this had been taking out healthy younger people at the same rate as older then you ( would hope ) most of the people fobbing it off as "just the flu" woldn't exist.
 
MillionMilesAway said:
There seems to be a lot of inconsistency from region to region, and probably within regions. I've not seen any official explanation as to why.

I haven't seen any vaccination figures for yesterday, but the 500k seems to be an unofficial 'possible' capacity rather than anything more.
www.ft.com

UK set to step up coronavirus vaccinations

Official document suggests enough doses for 500,000 jabs a day by next week
www.ft.com www.ft.com
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From what I have read as they are trying to vaccinate the older / most vulnerable population first the number of vaccines given within each area will differ. I know this article is a couple of years old but it would give an indication as to why some areas have had more people vaccinated than others https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-43316697

Also shows why Sadiq Khan is being a dick for moaning that Londoners aren't being vaccinated in the numbers that other places are being done
 
roubaixtuesday said:
It has been argued that COVID 19 is in the sweetspot for pandemics: lethal enough to kill a lot of people, but not so lethal that we're actually prepared to eliminate it. I'm not saying that's right, but you can see the argument; if the whole world reacted as China did there would be no COVID.
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I don't think you can weld people into their properties in a democracy.
Then again if China had been open about it in the first place it wouldn't have got out of China. They knew it was human-human transmittable in early December but REFUSED to tell anyone.
 
Eds said:
From what I have read as they are trying to vaccinate the older / most vulnerable population first the number of vaccines given within each area will differ. I know this article is a couple of years old but it would give an indication as to why some areas have had more people vaccinated than others https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-43316697

Also shows why Sadiq Khan is being a dick for moaning that Londoners aren't being vaccinated in the numbers that other places are being done
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9% of London's population is over 70 and amazingly London has got 9% of the distributed vaccine. If only he read the vaccination plan.
 
BlueAnorak said:
I don't think you can weld people into their properties in a democracy.
Then again if China had been open about it in the first place it wouldn't have got out of China. They knew it was human-human transmittable in early December but REFUSED to tell anyone.
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You don't need to weld people in. See New Zealand, Australia, Vietnam etc

I agree China's (lack of) openness was appalling, but I very much doubt being open would have contained it - they would have had to immediately lock down the whole place the moment the virus was first discovered, and even then it may not have been enough.

It would have given the rest of the World a chance to prepare for 1st wave much better; given what we actually did even when it was obvious, I'm somewhat doubtful we would have used the opportunity.
 
Eds said:
From what I have read as they are trying to vaccinate the older / most vulnerable population first the number of vaccines given within each area will differ. I know this article is a couple of years old but it would give an indication as to why some areas have had more people vaccinated than others https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-43316697

Also shows why Sadiq Khan is being a dick for moaning that Londoners aren't being vaccinated in the numbers that other places are being done
Click to expand...

London's over 80s are being vaccinated at a lower rate. NHS England data on 14 January (covering the period up to 10 Jan) showed just over 30% of London’s over 80s had received their first jab so far, while around 46% of those in the North East and Yorkshire had been vaccinated.
www.bbc.com

Covid-19: Concern over speed London is vaccinating over-80s

About 30% of London's over 80s have been vaccinated against Covid-19
www.bbc.com www.bbc.com

The vaccination plan is clearly inconsistently applied, and I can see exactly why Khan expressed concern at the numbers provided by NHS England.
 
BlueAnorak said:
9% of London's population is over 70 and amazingly London has got 9% of the distributed vaccine. If only he read the vaccination plan.
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I don't see how those two numbers compare.

9% of vaccine would be right if 9% of the country's over 70s lived in London - that's not what your statement says.
 
grunge said:
Not sure if covered.


A reinfection survey in the UK. 21k health care professionals who were infected in the 1st wave tested in the 2nd wave

Shows that natural immunity is 83% effective. meaning some of the vaccines are more effective than natural immunity.

0.66% of those 21k were reinfected. of those who were reinfected has less severe symptoms than 1st time around. But the big part of this is, they were still infectious. I assume that means that vaccinated people will also be infectious.
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I haven't actually seen any publication from the SIREN study but judging from the commentary I have seen I think that there may be slightly better protection from previous infection than from vaccination. As as far as I can see their definition of reinfection was a positive PCR test from regular swabbing whereas most of the vaccine studies you had to have a positive PCR test AND symptoms so in the latter you are missing the asymptomatic infection that are being picked up by this study.

Against which a fair proportion of their initial infections appear to be determined by presence of antibodies and it is possible that there are more reinfections in those generating a weak antibody response.

Uncertain about it as I haven't actually seen the methodology just a report on the ONS website which is not very explanatory but the real life implications may be a little better or worse than reported.
 
BlueAnorak said:
9% of London's population is over 70 and amazingly London has got 9% of the distributed vaccine. If only he read the vaccination plan.
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Maybe he needs home schooling. I just wish someone would have the balls to say he is, yet again, spouting shit and that London has what it currently needs.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
It has been argued that COVID 19 is in the sweetspot for pandemics: lethal enough to kill a lot of people, but not so lethal that we're actually prepared to eliminate it. I'm not saying that's right, but you can see the argument; if the whole world reacted as China did there would be no COVID.
Click to expand...
Thing is with viruses is that it doesn't want to kill the host, the whole idea is to stay active and transmissible. Killing the hosts is counter productive
 
IBlue said:
Thing is with viruses is that it doesn't want to kill the host, the whole idea is to stay active and transmissible. Killing the hosts is counter productive
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Absolutely. Sweetspot was the wrong word, I really meant that it's been argued that covid has the worst possible lethality in that if it were any deadlier we'd have eliminated it rather than allowing it to spread.
 


Crooky:

Yes they did publish the numbers around 10 pm. The all settings UK deaths yesterday were 1248. About what was expected - in fact a little down on my 1300 estimate. Twitter of course thought the delay was to hide 2000 deaths, Which was never credible as we had everything but the out of hospital England ones and knew from 2 pm that this was only just over 1000.

So that is 230 from outside England hospitals added for England. Which was around expectation. No conspiracy. Just another systems glitch.

I will post the usual updates this morning as it was too late to do them last night when they finally got the website updated with local data. I did post the deaths as it was on the BBC news after I had given up so I just posted what the BBC said after double checking it was true.

But the thread was seemingly concerned about my mental health so I did not post more.

Highlights:

North West up again - as was Greater Manchester. But much better day for Stockport (must have been a one off glitch in collating data over several days as does happen) and others mostly rose. Including Manchester sadly topping 400 for first time in a while.

Nobody under 100 but Oldham and Rochdale still doing the best. So the local herd immunity theory making the former worst areas now the best and the best areas now the worst still holds. It was Trafford's turn to have relatively big numbers yesterday.

So overall GM rose by 152 to 1917 - one of highest totals in some time - but that 152 was from a NW rise of 696 - so pro rata Greater Manchester fell slightly as a % of the NW total to 29.2% from 29.6%.
 
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roubaixtuesday said:
You don't need to weld people in. See New Zealand, Australia, Vietnam etc

I agree China's (lack of) openness was appalling, but I very much doubt being open would have contained it - they would have had to immediately lock down the whole place the moment the virus was first discovered, and even then it may not have been enough.

It would have given the rest of the World a chance to prepare for 1st wave much better; given what we actually did even when it was obvious, I'm somewhat doubtful we would have used the opportunity.
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New Zealand, Australia and Vietnam are not international travel hubs and don't have thousands of foreign truck drivers entering and leaving the country every day.
Future bio security means most goods transport needs to move to containers and air transit arrangements need to improve dramatically.
 
REGIONAL SCOREBOARD YESTERDAY:

SOUTH:-

EAST 4741 - another fall (from 4881) and now well below the NW consistently.

LONDON 9804 - small fall from 10, 020 - but the trend here is also down.

SOUTH EAST 7237 - up from 6770 - but seems to have stabilised around 7000. And North West looks set to overtake here too.

SOUTH WEST 3712 - up from 2732 - huge for this small region and as the current hospital data I have been posting around 6 or 7 pm each evening (24 hours ahead of the Gov UK site for some reason) shows this is the main concern area down south with patients and ventilators in this small area now well above their first wave peaks here.
 
MillionMilesAway said:
I think that must be counting the second doses as separate doses, and they don't appear to have any data from yesterday either.
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278,943 1st doses administered on Wednesday though. Was 207,661 on Tuesday, and 145,076 on Monday. That suggests a better ramp up than many of us on here were expecting which is fantastic news
 
REGIONAL SCOREBOARD YESTERDAY:

MIDLANDS AND NORTH


EAST MIDLANDS 3029 - down slightly from 3077.

WEST MIDLANDS 4833 - up slightly from 4651.


NORTH EAST 1030 - down quite a bit from 1911.

YORKSHIRE 2475 - down from 2746 and still showing little sign of the new variant taking off here. Been stable for some weeks.


And NORTH WEST :- 6560 - up from 5964. And still a little concerning as though not now escalating as it was post Christmas staying at around 6000/7000 - which is record levels here.

Hopefully stability though is a good sign for all these regions.
 
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