Coronavirus (2021) thread

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ayrshire_blue said:
Absolutely spot in. It still amazes me how easy it is for people to travel throughout the world. Complaining about the financial cost of shutting all borders is crazy when we see the damage this thing is doing and how it's dragging out. Should have been done last January, and if not then definitely by March. Can't believe so much free travel is still allowed 10 months down the line.
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Totally agree. It's barking.if travel had been shut down at the start of last February we wouldn't have had half the problems we had/have. How to lose the benefits of being an Island.
Not doing quarantine/isolation without advanced mobile tracking is a joke as well. It is the most successful thing in Korea, Taiwan, Japan etc.
 
Not sure if covered.


A reinfection survey in the UK. 21k health care professionals who were infected in the 1st wave tested in the 2nd wave

Shows that natural immunity is 83% effective. meaning some of the vaccines are more effective than natural immunity.

0.66% of those 21k were reinfected. of those who were reinfected has less severe symptoms than 1st time around. But the big part of this is, they were still infectious. I assume that means that vaccinated people will also be infectious.
 
So did they ever release the numbers for yesterday?

Haven't seen anything on the BBC or my local news websites.
 
cleavers said:
I've said before that you are far too optimistic, and I'll stick by that.

I (late 50's) probably won't get the first vaccine until late March, the second mid-April, so early May is the earliest I'll be trusting anything, if I don't get it in the mean time, which I intend to do my very best to avoid.

That's effectively out of my hands, as my missus works in a busy dentist 3 days a week, and I still have to go into a very poorly ventilated (underground), and not very well socially distanced office, full of younger (and in some cases irresponsible) people who travel from all over the country to work for 7 days at a time.

Whitty will keep the breaks on if he can, I'm not convinced he'll be able too, largely because of views like yours, and much worse, that we need to open ASAP, we do, but ASAP to me is later than yours.

We've rushed before, but never to do the right thing like "close down", every time we have rushed to open up it's made matters worse eventually, not trying to pick an argument, just trying to stay realistic, we should all stay realistic, but each to their own I guess.
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I think you make an implicit assumption that the epidemic will remain constant over time. My expectation is that R(t) falls with vaccination but we don't know the relation exactly, we can only have an expectation that it should fall.

We need to know the effect of the vaccination campaign on transmission, and then we can see how the source of risk varies. At the moment I think we can expect vaccination to reduce transmission amongst the vaccinated 'substantially' because it must be a function of viral load and symptoms themselves (coughing, sneezing).
 
grunge said:
Not sure if covered.


A reinfection survey in the UK. 21k health care professionals who were infected in the 1st wave tested in the 2nd wave

Shows that natural immunity is 83% effective. meaning some of the vaccines are more effective than natural immunity.

0.66% of those 21k were reinfected. of those who were reinfected has less severe symptoms than 1st time around. But the big part of this is, they were still infectious. I assume that means that vaccinated people will also be infectious.
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Without opening the link, this sounds like the study that was covered by BBC. Infectious is not binary hence different viruses, indeed different strains have different R values
 
Marvin said:
Without opening the link, this sounds like the study that was covered by BBC. Infectious is not binary hence different viruses, indeed different strains have different R values
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Not sure what the study the BBC looked at, the link as a Dr Campbell video about the Siren study in the UK.
 
BlueAnorak said:
Rejoice. 500k vaccinations a day by the end of next week according to the Times.
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I hope your right. but anecdotal evidence suggests a lot of massaging of figures going on. my folks ( both over 75 with severe underlying health issues ) just got bumped back to mid/late Feb from originally being told this week/next week.

Hopefully its just the vaccine calculator playing up.
 
BlueAnorak said:
Just viruses doing what viruses do. Mutate.
The new mRNA and Vector virus technologies can be retargetted in a couple of months. A huge advance in medical technology.
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I’m not sure enough of the public understand what an amazing achievement and advance this is and what the new technologies could mean for treatment of other viruses in the future too.
 
grunge said:
I hope your right. but anecdotal evidence suggests a lot of massaging of figures going on. my folks ( both over 75 with severe underlying health issues ) just got bumped back to mid/late Feb from originally being told this week/next week.

Hopefully its just the vaccine calculator playing up.
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The calculator seems petty much educated guess work, with vaccination rate set at 1 mill / week and take up up of 70%. Both figures will be higher. I wouldn't use it as a guide.
 
Brightwell’s left peg said:
That will be exceptionally good. ~3.5M a week means most of the adult population will be done 3-4 months from now.
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According to Bloomberg an overall total of 3,356,229 vaccinations done to the end of yesterday in the UK. Not quite sure how they are getting more up to date data than we get from UK gov but there you go.
 
SB Blue said:
I’m not sure enough of the public understand what an amazing achievement and advance this is and what the new technologies could mean for treatment of other viruses in the future too.
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Not wishing to downplay the effect of Covid-19, but In many respects it's good that the predicted virus "X" was Covid-19 and not something really lethal. For example if SARS2 had the lethality of MERS we would now be looking at 35% of cases as deaths.
We now have medical technology weapons to combat something really lethal. In a fairly short time period as well. Monoclonal antibodies and anti viral nose sprays will improve things still further.
 
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grunge said:
I hope your right. but anecdotal evidence suggests a lot of massaging of figures going on. my folks ( both over 75 with severe underlying health issues ) just got bumped back to mid/late Feb from originally being told this week/next week.

Hopefully its just the vaccine calculator playing up.
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There seems to be a lot of inconsistency from region to region, and probably within regions. I've not seen any official explanation as to why.

I haven't seen any vaccination figures for yesterday, but the 500k seems to be an unofficial 'possible' capacity rather than anything more.
www.ft.com

UK set to step up coronavirus vaccinations

Official document suggests enough doses for 500,000 jabs a day by next week
www.ft.com www.ft.com
 
BlueAnorak said:
According to Bloomberg an overall total of 3,356,229 vaccinations done to the end of yesterday in the UK. Not quite sure how they are getting more up to date data than we get from UK gov but there you go.
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I think that must be counting the second doses as separate doses, and they don't appear to have any data from yesterday either.
 
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