Coronavirus (2021) thread

[Hes the left back remember]

Officially 8 (few symptoms a day or two before).
I’ve been booked by my GP to have a call with a hot covid clinic this afternoon. They’ll assess and if required they’ll get me in (or someone out) to due oxygen sat levels...hopefully some other form of treatment too.

Somapop please let us know outcome/advice given.
I think my symptoms are very similar to yours.
Good luck!

 

[roubaixtuesday]

I cringed at yesterday's press conference when at question time, someone asked could we look forward to opening up the country in March once the most vulnerable groups had been vaccinated. The mindset of too many needs recalibration imo

Yup. We've learned nothing. Desperate to make the same mistake again and again and again. Depressing.

 

[tolmie's hairdoo]

You are right as far as we know it doesn’t stop transmission, but like the flu vaccine, if it stops most people suffering the worst effects and in the vast majority dying, then we may have to live with transmission. In that case things will get back to some normallity and like flu we will have to asses our own risk, make sure those at a higher risk have the option up to date vaccination.
Whether that’s this summer or autumn remains to be seen but I would say it will be when everyone over 40 has had or been offered their second dose, some normality and holidays can resume.

Agreed, and that works across all countries when it comes to holidays.

The arrogance of some of the reporting in this country around holidays abroad this year, is surely typical Little Englander?

It will not be our choice to make.

Other countries around the world will be at different stages of their own vaccine programme, so it is pretty arrogant thinking for some outlets to suggest Gary and Sharon can have their two weeks in Marbs this summer, just because they have had their jab?

They are just as likely to remain potential carriers of the virus and still be able to transmit it to others (those not fortunate enough to have had a jab yet)

Equating risk can't be a personal choice, sadly, not in these times.

This is a global challenge and the laws have to be considered for the greater good.

If that means a week in Devon rather than Spain, then people have to accept that.

I have been genuinely shocked how many people assume this vaccine is the white Knight on a fiery steed.

 

[Indaparkside]

Can someone explain please if a new variant of the virus comes along what happens to all the people who have already been vaccinated surely they will still be compromised as the jab they have had will not be effective against the new strain is this correct.

 

[MillionMilesAway]

Mutations were always going to happen. There is a risk of a bad new strain. The risk is not high of it being catastrophic, and we do have the tools to respond to it, even if it is.

This line seems to be the key point - there will be mutations, some may be bad. We can react, and quickly, but can't future-proof anything.

I expect that all three makers are already well along the SA, UK or Brazil variant vaccine process - that there is no pathogen part in the vaccine should make the regulation process reasonably straightforward.

 

[Healdplace]

There must be an awful lot of repeat tests in that 62million (I guess many, like the footballers, tested weekly).

I don't know anyone who's been tested, let alone definitely had it (yet).

Three months ago I could have said the same. But then I have been self isolating since March.

But in the past three months I have lost count of those I know but it is double figures and not far off in my owm family.

There has been a dramatic increase noticeable to me since October. And from comments on here I am not alone as I have seen several people say it,

When you are doing between half a million and 700 thousand tests a day though as now you are going to find more cases. We are catching a much higher proportion now than we did in the first wave when tests were scarce.

 

[ayrshire_blue]

Somapop please let us know outcome/advice given.
I think my symptoms are very similar to yours.
Good luck!

Good luck mate. Speedy recovery.

Some really interesting points in the last couple of pages, so thanks to everyone who's posted. @inbetween, regarding the vitamin D - you may be interested to know that as I've said before I think I've been lucky enough (so far) to have came through this relatively unscathed. That's after taking a vit D supplement for months. One supplement I've not taken is Zinc and consequently I've completely lost taste and smell, and from what I know Zinc specifically helps with these senses. Might be something or might just be coincidence, and I know a few posters on here recommended Zinc, and I suppose my own situation backs up both the argument for vitamin D and the argument for Zinc.

 

[domalino]

I cringed at yesterday's press conference when at question time, someone asked could we look forward to opening up the country in March once the most vulnerable groups had been vaccinated. The mindset of too many needs recalibration imo

You might well cringe but the country will be opened up when those over 70's are vaccinated.

The first 5 groups account for 94-99% of deaths, and there's just no way the country is going to still be in lockdown when deaths are down to 10-20 a day.

We will be in Tier 1/2, maybe 3 within a month of them hitting that target group.

 

[MillionMilesAway]

Yup. We've learned nothing. Desperate to make the same mistake again and again and again. Depressing.

And be blunt at this most repetitive of questions.
"We don't know how it will affect the numbers, and are making no promises. It will depend on a number of factors including how responsibly the public behave. Repeat until March."

 

[tolmie's hairdoo]

I had the same feeling that those vaccinated will feel "released". I fear more the younger generation thinking they now have a free pass as they think they cannot harm anyone.

I cringed at yesterday's press conference when at question time, someone asked could we look forward to opening up the country in March once the most vulnerable groups had been vaccinated. The mindset of too many needs recalibration imo

I don't know who is driving the misconception, government, media, or those businesses with vested interests?

Probably all three!

As you say, our entire mindset needs to change.

It happened after 9/11 when everyone had to accept the way we jumped on and off airplanes through customs was changed forever.

Nobody likes waiting in queues but it was the new reality.

The new reality, here and now, is things might never be the same again, and far too many people might not be willing to accept that.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

The first 5 groups account for 94-99% of deaths

But only 40% ish of ICU admissions.

 

[Indaparkside]

But only 40% ish of ICU admissions.

And that is the point the government are not arsed about the deaths it’s about the nhs getting over run

 

[TheRemainsOfTheDave]

Can someone explain please if a new variant of the virus comes along what happens to all the people who have already been vaccinated surely they will still be compromised as the jab they have had will not be effective against the new strain is this correct.

The vaccine they had will probably give them some immunity, but it is possible that the virus could mutate in such a way as to make the vaccine efficacy too low, say below 50%. That's what the scientists are keeping an eye on.

 

[domalino]

But only 40% ish of ICU admissions.

Yes, but they take up a much bigger proportion of ICU bed time.

A study of French hospitals found that the average person who died of covid 19 spent 43.7 days in ICU, while the average of someone who went to ICU and survived was 27.5 days.

So for 100 patients in ICU, the 40 who make up the 99% of deaths takes up 1748 bed days, and the 60% make up 1650

Take away the 40% and your ICU capacity to treat people more than doubles.

 

[blueparrot]

I don't know who is driving the misconception, government, media, or those businesses with vested interests?

Probably all three!

As you say, our entire mindset needs to change.

It happened after 9/11 when everyone had to accept the way we jumped on and off airplanes through customs was changed forever.

Nobody likes waiting in queues but it was the new reality.

The new reality, here and now, is things might never be the same again, and far too many people might not be willing to accept that.

Think a lot of the misconception is just some peoples thinking.We met a couple in their eighties while out walking yesterday and asked if they’d been vaccinated ,they hadn’t but their first question was what can they do when they’ve had it. They were shocked when my answer was nothing, except feel safer.That they had to carry on as if they hadn’t been vaccinated for now, came as a surprise.

 

[Del_Bosque]

I'd imagine most of the country will be in Tier 1/2 about 3 weeks after all over 60's been offered a vaccination, so end of April?

There's really not any justification for keeping people locked up over summer if 90% of hospitalizations and 99% of deaths have been prevented.

I think we'll be out of the tier system completely by June, the G7 has been arranged for Cornwall mid June so the Gov must be planning on things being much more normal by then

 

[roubaixtuesday]

Yes, but they take up a much bigger proportion of ICU bed time.

A study of French hospitals found that the average person who died of covid 19 spent 43.7 days in ICU, while the average of someone who went to ICU and survived was 27.5 days.

So for 100 patients in ICU, the 40 who make up the 99% of deaths takes up 1748 bed days, and the 60% make up 1650

Take away the 40% and your ICU capacity to treat people more than doubles.

So, is half the current rate of ICU occupancy OK?

Is it going back up to current levels as the disease surges through younger age groups OK?

Obviously, I think a resounding "no" on both counts. Personally, I don't fancy it, and society-wide it sounds terrible.

 

[domalino]

So, is half the current rate of ICU occupancy OK?

Is it going back up to current levels as the disease surges through younger age groups OK?

Obviously, I think a resounding "no" on both counts. Personally, I don't fancy it, and society-wide it sounds terrible.

You might not fancy it, but you're living in a complete dream land if you think we're going to be in lockdown with deaths <20 a day. We came out of lockdown 1 at 350 deaths/day.

 

[shemnel]

But only 40% ish of ICU admissions.

Yes, but they take up a much bigger proportion of ICU bed time.

A study of French hospitals found that the average person who died of covid 19 spent 43.7 days in ICU, while the average of someone who went to ICU and survived was 27.5 days.

So for 100 patients in ICU, the 40 who make up the 99% of deaths takes up 1748 bed days, and the 60% make up 1650

Take away the 40% and your ICU capacity to treat people more than doubles.

yes there is a point in this - whilst over/under 60 roughly marks the 50/50 line for ICU admissions, the folks who die in ICU in the UK are in there for about 5 days longer, on average. In the spring wave we actually found that survivors were in for longer, but i'm guessing treatment has driven this to be the opposite in this wave.

remove those most susceptible to death from covid and the burden on ICU decreases AND the mean stay in ICU decreases. No, it's not a great idea to whack up the caseload again but by March you have to consider 12m+ will have some level of vaccination and 20m (?) may have had it. The R number will be looking to decrease then as well. Sadly political pressure will drive things more.

further, as IFR and ICU admission rate is much lower amongst younger people, it would take much larger case loads to re-enact the current ICU admissions, if the over 70s were all vaccinated.

 

[BlueHammer85]

my bro in law (nhs worker) who has already had covid last year, has had the first jab, has again tested positive.