Coronavirus (2021) thread

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roubaixtuesday said:
You're double counting, and best estimates for infected are in the region 12-20%, not 25%

Even if we take your 25%, the correct maths is:

Vaccinated: 21 million
Not vaccinated (67-21) = 46 million, of which 25% = 11.5 million have had it.

Either vaccinated or previously infected: 21 + 11.5 = 32.5 million, 44%, very much a best case scenario.
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I used the Edge Health estimate which we've already discussed. They calculated 22% for England as at 3rd January. I then calculated the number of people who had been infected since 3rd January (100k x 16 days = 2.5%). There's the 25% starting position.

You like Eds have forgotten that 7% have already been vaccinated.

25% + 7% plus 14 days @ 500k takes you over 50%.
 
the worst date for actual date of death remains the 8th April with 1,073. I have a feeling that will be challenged by the time all of this week's data is in. (I think yesterday, the 18th, might be the worst day of the lot but we'll see in time)
 
You're all crazy. By which I mean, look at you lot. Still trying to act rationally. Fuck that. It's time to stop blithely accepting the process of desensitisation, call a tragedy a tragedy, a trauma a trauma, and find a blanket, sit rocking back and forth until other people accept THAT as the correct response for any civilised person.

Or you might think history shows us a desensitized society is the way forward.
 
Only 319 of those deaths by the way happened yesterday.

It will rise over coming days but it is almost certain the media will go with the 1610 number as if they were all from yesterday. And the true number will never be that high.

Even in the 842 England hospital deaths reported today 27 were not from this year. And 16 before Christmas.
 
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Marvin said:
I used the Edge Health estimate which we've already discussed. They calculated 22% for England as at 3rd January. I then calculated the number of people who had been infected since 3rd January (100k x 16 days = 2.5%). There's the 25% starting position.

You like Eds have forgotten that 7% have already been vaccinated.

25% + 7% plus 14 days @ 500k takes you over 50%.
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It's not a big deal, but honestly, you're double counting. I've laid out the arithmetic above.

Some of the 25% are also in the (7% + 14 days @500k)

To put it another way: 25% of the people we vaccinate have already had the infection

[like I said, 25% is likely an overestimate too, but just using your numbers]

I'll leave it at that.
 
Healdplace said:
On BBC this morning they were claiming (not terribly persuasively with torrential rain and a storm and a blizzard on its way) that we should be looking in the garden for the first signs of Spring.

Feels a bit like that - not Spring, just maybe signs of pre Spring, but at least not quite mid Winter.
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Off topic I know, but we've still got 2 different Geraniums (pink and red) flowering profusely on our balcony, and the first of our Ipheion (light blue star like flower), and a couple of new bright yellow Cape Daisy flowers out, so it already feels a bit more spring like, pity about the weather.
 
cleavers said:
Question on that, if you still have symptoms at 10 days, then surely you are not allowed out, as there must still be a risk of it spreading to others ?
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From the advice I sought, it would depend what the symptoms are. Still coughing everywhere or have a high temp then continue to isolate. Feel lethargic and have issues with taste/smell but not coughing etc then should be ok.
 
The death rate is horrific. I know infections are decreasing it seems, but the numbers are still very high

I’m trying to look at the positives...
 
kaz7 said:
Horse racing is able to continue under lockdown rules because it is seen as an elite sport
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It's also important to the economy, as it generates a lot of money through betting (which is taxed and pays government bills), they'll have to suspend it for the sake of the jockey's and staff around the race horses.
 
Summerbuzz said:
You're all crazy. By which I mean, look at you lot. Still trying to act rationally. Fuck that. It's time to stop blithely accepting the process of desensitisation, call a tragedy a tragedy, a trauma a trauma, and find a blanket, sit rocking back and forth until other people accept THAT as the correct response for any civilised person.

Or you might think history shows us a desensitized society is the way forward.
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Thanks for that.
 
I don’t understand how we can be getting so many cases/deaths. There is no mass gatherings, everything is shut almost. I don’t believe people are catching covid from walking outside
 
Blu3m00n91 said:
I don’t understand how we can be getting so many cases/deaths. There is no mass gatherings, everything is shut almost. I don’t believe people are catching covid from walking outside
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These deaths are a result of what we were doing almost a month ago. There is a major lag between cases/deaths. Cases are beginning to decrease as a result of the current lockdown.
 
Gray said:
Vaccinations 1st dose :-
  • 15/01 = 324,233
  • 16/01 = 277,915
  • 17/01 = 225,407
  • 18/01 = 204,076
Numbers dropping, are supplies not getting through?
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Don’t know, but wonder if there was some picking of the easy fruit first, and now they are teying to catch up on care homes before moving onto too many over 70s.
Which is why I think in a couple of weeks the different UK regions will be roughly in the same place but from slightly different routes.
 
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