Coronavirus (2021) thread

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worsleyweb said:
in 3 weeks 88 percent of people who die from this will have had the vaccine. In 6 weeks 95 percent. Once the hospitals have capacity and we have done the above and it is seen to be working they will be opening up society. If loads of people get it who are under 50 - 99.9 percent of them will be absolutely fine. This is not happy clapping it is a fact is it not?
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absolutely bang on. Nothing wrong with talking about optimistic scenarios either. We have a vaccine now, we didnt before. Things wont be like they were before and society needs to get back to normal asap. Anyone who thinks otherwise with continued lockdowns just in case isnt thinking straight and seeing the bigger picture. If these vaccines were 30 or 40% effective fair enough, but they are not. No one in hospital after the first jab is great news and more than we could have hoped for. They are the solution to end this misery.
 
Churchlawtonblue said:
absolutely bang on. Nothing wrong with talking about optimistic scenarios either. We have a vaccine now, we didnt before. Things wont be like they were before and society needs to get back to normal asap. Anyone who thinks otherwise with continued lockdowns just in case isnt thinking straight and seeing the bigger picture. If these vaccines were 30 or 40% effective fair enough, but they are not. No one in hospital after the first jab is great news and more than we could have hoped for. They are the solution to end this misery.
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That’s great news if true that no one who’s had the first jab has then caught the disease and now in hospital, hopefully proves things will be very different this time once things start relaxing.
 
willipp said:
That’s great news if true that no one who’s had the first jab has then caught the disease and now in hospital, hopefully proves things will be very different this time once things start relaxing.
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It was reported along with the other results of the AZ tests
 
willipp said:
That’s great news if true that no one who’s had the first jab has then caught the disease and now in hospital, hopefully proves things will be very different this time once things start relaxing.
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papers.ssrn.com

Single Dose Administration, And The Influence Of The Timing Of The Booster Dose On Immunogenicity and Efficacy Of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (AZD1222) Vaccine

Background: The ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (AZD1222) vaccine has been approved for emergency use by the UK regulatory authority, MHRA, with a regimen of two standard doses
papers.ssrn.com
 
Churchlawtonblue said:
absolutely bang on. Nothing wrong with talking about optimistic scenarios either. We have a vaccine now, we didnt before. Things wont be like they were before and society needs to get back to normal asap. Anyone who thinks otherwise with continued lockdowns just in case isnt thinking straight and seeing the bigger picture. If these vaccines were 30 or 40% effective fair enough, but they are not. No one in hospital after the first jab is great news and more than we could have hoped for. They are the solution to end this misery.
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I am largely optimistic too but these are vaccines against the original virus so we have to operate in such a way that transmission is not allowed to take off again in the UK.
 
worsleyweb said:
in 3 weeks 88 percent of people who die from this will have had the vaccine (or been offered it!). In 6 weeks 95 percent. Once the hospitals have capacity and we have done the above and it is seen to be working they will be opening up society. If loads of people get it who are under 50 - 99.9 percent of them will be absolutely fine. This is not happy clapping it is a fact is it not?
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If we were to allow it to replicate as it was recently in any population then mutations will arise and it might move beyond us. That's the only risk that's left now so let's be smart about this even if it means some economic cost and continued quarantine for a while longer.

I don't really know the possibility of further mutations. The risk maybe over-stated but I'd rather play it safe now. We're on a clear course out of this if we just carry on as we are.
 
Churchlawtonblue said:
absolutely bang on. Nothing wrong with talking about optimistic scenarios either. We have a vaccine now, we didnt before. Things wont be like they were before and society needs to get back to normal asap. Anyone who thinks otherwise with continued lockdowns just in case isnt thinking straight and seeing the bigger picture. If these vaccines were 30 or 40% effective fair enough, but they are not. No one in hospital after the first jab is great news and more than we could have hoped for. They are the solution to end this misery.
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All this is based on trial data, which is carefully controlled, and very small numbers. We still don't have any real data based on the actual vaccine in the real world, so caution needs to be displayed until we have that, and it will still be several weeks before it's conclusive.

Nobody is enjoying this, but reacting too early could set the whole thing back weeks or even months.

The best bit of news today was that of 643k tests, less than 4% were positive.
 
Churchlawtonblue said:
papers.ssrn.com

Single Dose Administration, And The Influence Of The Timing Of The Booster Dose On Immunogenicity and Efficacy Of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (AZD1222) Vaccine

Background: The ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (AZD1222) vaccine has been approved for emergency use by the UK regulatory authority, MHRA, with a regimen of two standard doses
papers.ssrn.com
Click to expand...

Sorry if its already been discussed, but is there any such info available that you know of with regards to the Pfizer vaccine? Just wondered as I know there was a big question of whether their levels would remain high enough after 3 weeks and in a way we're going against the advice of Pfizer and the WHO by delaying the second dose. Must be some data available by now on how it's holding up on people 5 or 6 weeks down the line from first dose I'd have thought?
 
I would assume the scientists are analysing each mutation and by the sounds of it, several notable variants were mutating along the same path? I know there's always risk of a seemingly random mutation that catches us off-guard, but perhaps we can start to see the patterns in the mutations that the virus is pursuing because it has some tangible benefit to it (increased infectivity) which might make it easier for vaccines to be updated and for us to push the variants in circulation into being ones we can readily vaccinate against?
 
ayrshire_blue said:
Must be some data available by now on how it's holding up on people 5 or 6 weeks down the line from first dose I'd have thought?
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I think (well I know from my dad) that a lot of the early Pfizer doses had both up until about the 10th January, which is only 3 weeks ago, so it might still be too early for much data.
 
cleavers said:
I think (well I know from my dad) that a lot of the early Pfizer doses had both up until about the 10th January, which is only 3 weeks ago, so it might still be too early for much data.
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Ahh. Makes sense, cheers. It'd be great news globally if we can provide data to support the decision we've made. Here's hoping.
 
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