The FTSE

[aguerrrroooooooooooo]

I take no pleasure in what I said last Friday that I feared this sort of shenanigans may happen.

Yeah you were pretty much bang on. If the brokers hadn't engaged in some nefarious play I suspect this could've turned out differently

 

[MCFCinUSA]

A good post - I tried to suggest the same last week in a more gentle manner and got a load of grief back. In the clamour to shaft the hedge funds and make some money many of these small investors will just shaft each other.*

*The final position (winners and lossers) will be impossible to tell as there just isn't the kind of transparency.

the reality is no one knows what's going on as it unfolds (if you did, you could print your own money with impunity) and it's not been helped by the false narrative peddled in the media (who have presented this as the little guy sticking it to the man - which it definitely isn't) - sure, the retail traders are the most vocal, but as said very early on in this thread regarding GME, it was the larger sharks that moved in when they smelt blood in the water who really kicked things into gear to pressure Melvin and a few other of the highly leveraged firms caught on the wrong side of this. The high frequency traders and algos, prop day trading firms and other specialist hedge funds (and perhaps satellites of players like Citadel) did the damage; retail traders were actually net sellers after Monday.. such a load of shit being talked about all of this, and absolute rubbish posted by some people in here.

the bottom line is this was a company that looked like it was going bust last year following Covid and the biggest drop in quarterly GDP since records have been kept, although it was bought in the single digits by people like Michael Burry for his fund (he's the Big Short guy) whose filings show he sold out most of his holdings in the $20s.. anyone thinking they're going to dip into GameStop and pay triple digits for it because it's going to the moon (for whatever justification or misappropriation of information as they mangle things in their mind) is asking for trouble.. the only trades I was considering in GameStop were shorts last week - because this type of situation (given, no one has seen anything quite like this before, it was the outlier of outliers, so harder to peg how far it might go against previous situations) because these moves are NEVER sustainable, they are temporary - like a firework on bonfire night.. there is nothing (in value terms) behind it; once it runs out of fuel it's spent and will fall to the ground. It is a pure gamble - and one in which the little guy is likely left holding the bag at the end of it if they're going long, because he or she is playing the greater fool theory - that's his or her only hope.. the little guy is entering the field of play and trying to play ball in a hurricane - which is the best analogy to describe things as they are trying clip their hundred lots in a market where millions on millions are involved - and they aren't even the driving force behind the tremendous volatility seen..

.. and your comment on transparency is bang on the money; Citadel because they are over half of all retail volume in the US are basically the market because of their aggregate concentration.. you have to wonder about their satellite trading entities who presumably have access to real-time order flows and other goodies, and when Citadel goes in to 'rescue' Melvin with Point72, you have to ask yourself what's going on - conflicts of interest arise.. James Simons stepping down at Renaissance Technologies around the same time as it comes to light that their in-house funds have done marvelously whilst their external client funds have lost money, makes you seriously wonder about front-running (and how long this game's been played) - along with situations like we've just seen with GameStop, where certain 'assassins' (let me call them) have gone in and murdered a handful of other market participants in a black bag ops strike, with the media portraying things as it's a victory of the little guy over the man.. what a joke!

the little guy (unless he's lucked out) ends up as the bag holder if he's been buying this dogshit long.

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

the reality is no one knows what's going on as it unfolds (if you did, you could print your own money with impunity) and it's not been helped by the false narrative peddled in the media (who have presented this as the little guy sticking it to the man - which it definitely isn't) - sure, the retail traders are the most vocal, but as said very early on in this thread regarding GME, it was the larger sharks that moved in when they smelt blood in the water who really kicked things into gear to pressure Melvin and a few other of the highly leveraged firms caught on the wrong side of this. The high frequency traders and algos, prop day trading firms and other specialist hedge funds (and perhaps satellites of players like Citadel) did the damage; retail traders were actually net sellers after Monday.. such a load of shit being talked about all of this, and absolute rubbish posted by some people in here.

the bottom line is this was a company that looked like it was going bust last year following Covid and the biggest drop in quarterly GDP since records have been kept, although it was bought in the single digits by people like Michael Burry for his fund (he's the Big Short guy) whose filings show he sold out most of his holdings in the $20s.. anyone thinking they're going to dip into GameStop and pay triple digits for it because it's going to the moon (for whatever justification or misappropriation of information as they mangle things in their mind) is asking for trouble.. the only trades I was considering in GameStop were shorts last week - because this type of situation (given, no one has seen anything quite like this before, it was the outlier of outliers, so harder to peg how far it might go against previous situations) because these moves are NEVER sustainable, they are temporary - like a firework on bonfire night.. there is nothing (in value terms) behind it; once it runs out of fuel it's spent and will fall to the ground. It is a pure gamble - and one in which the little guy is likely left holding the bag at the end of it if they're going long, because he or she is playing the greater fool theory - that's his or her only hope.. the little guy is entering the field of play and trying to play ball in a hurricane - which is the best analogy to describe things as they are trying clip their hundred lots in a market where millions on millions are involved - and they aren't even the driving force behind the tremendous volatility seen..

.. and your comment on transparency is bang on the money; Citadel because they are over half of all retail volume in the US are basically the market because of their aggregate concentration.. you have to wonder about their satellite trading entities who presumably have access to real-time order flows and other goodies, and when Citadel goes in to 'rescue' Melvin with Point72, you have to ask yourself what's going on - conflicts of interest arise.. James Simons stepping down at Renaissance Technologies around the same time as it comes to light that their in-house funds have done marvelously whilst their external client funds have lost money, makes you seriously wonder about front-running (and how long this game's been played) - along with situations like we've just seen with GameStop, where certain 'assassins' (let me call them) have gone in and murdered a handful of other market participants in a black bag ops strike, with the media portraying things as it's a victory of the little guy over the man.. what a joke!

the little guy (unless he's lucked out) ends up as the bag holder if he's been buying this dogshit long.

Agree with every word. Great post.

 

[SWP's back]

^^^^
*if I repeat ‘greater fool theory’ often enough, it’ll come true and fuck what actually happens in a short squeeze and historical precedent such as VW briefly becoming the highest value company in the world. I’m on this hill and I’ll die on it*

Short squeezes though similar looking on a graph do not equate to greater fool bubbles. You sound bitter because you spent last week ‘considering shorting’ rather than quadrupling some quick cash and getting out.

 

[aguerrrroooooooooooo]

The penny might be starting to drop over at WSB. Nobody really knows which way this stock is headed but honestly if you have any serious money in it might be time to seriously consider getting out before things go seriously sour. It's already at $90 after hours.

I admit that even though I never had any actual capital in the game I got carried away with some of the hype and memes flying around and genuinely thought this stock could reach ridiculous highs (And it might have done had retail brokers allowed people to continue to buy shares)

I really hope nobody does anything too crazy but I've seen posts over there of people putting in tens of thousands of dollars into this stock that are now hugely in the red and still refusing to sell, this might not end well at all.

 

[west didsblue]

The penny might be starting to drop over at WSB. Nobody really knows which way this stock is headed but honestly if you have any serious money in it might be time to seriously consider getting out before things go seriously sour. It's already at $90 after hours.

I admit that even though I never had any actual capital in the game I got carried away with some of the hype and memes flying around and genuinely thought this stock could reach ridiculous highs (And it might have done had retail brokers allowed people to continue to buy shares)

I really hope nobody does anything too crazy but I've seen posts over there of people putting in tens of thousands of dollars into this stock that are now hugely in the red and still refusing to sell, this might not end well at all.

As I didn't have enough knowledge of the mechanics of what might happen, I treated it the same as a bet on the horses when I've been given a tip and put a relatively modest amount on that I was prepared to lose.

 

[aguerrrroooooooooooo]

As I didn't have enough knowledge of the mechanics of what might happen, I treated it the same as a bet on the horses when I've been given a tip and put a relatively modest amount on that I was prepared to lose.

Yeah completely understandable to treat it as a bit of fun with money you could absolutely afford to lose.

But damn, seeing people buying hundreds of shares at over $300 and still not selling is really concerning to me, at what point do you cut your losses? $60 a share? $30?

This story should be a case study in the future over the sunk cost fallacy

 

[bugsyblue]

Can I ask what is most likely a very novice question. If you bought a shit load of GameStop shares at 15p and then tried to flog them at 300p, is that as simple as hitting a button (or your broker hitting a button)? Or can you be left without a buyer? Ie do you need a physical person to want to purchase said shares and if you don't have any demand at that price can you be stuck with them?

 

[west didsblue]

Yeah completely understandable to treat it as a bit of fun with money you could absolutely afford to lose.

But damn, seeing people buying hundreds of shares at over $300 and still not selling is really concerning to me, at what point do you cut your losses? $60 a share? $30?

This story should be a case study in the future over the sunk cost fallacy

To be fair it's not been that much fun. I bought a small number at $225 on Monday, watched it shoot up to $275 and then it's been like a slow motion car crash since then. Could have been a whole lot worse if I'd believed the hype and gone in big.

 

[bugsyblue]

Yeah completely understandable to treat it as a bit of fun with money you could absolutely afford to lose.

But damn, seeing people buying hundreds of shares at over $300 and still not selling is really concerning to me, at what point do you cut your losses? $60 a share? $30?

This story should be a case study in the future over the sunk cost fallacy

Unless people are happy to pay an inflated price and hold onto the stock as a form of activism? The longer people hold the stock regardless of the price then the short sellers lose don't they? The problem is of course not everyone will hold their stock.

 

[tolmie's hairdoo]

If I had punted a grand and made £100k, I'm not the type of guy who would stick around in the hope of making it a million.

I'd get the fuck out as quickly as possible and celebrate.

Got lucky the first time.

 

[SWP's back]

Yeah completely understandable to treat it as a bit of fun with money you could absolutely afford to lose.

But damn, seeing people buying hundreds of shares at over $300 and still not selling is really concerning to me, at what point do you cut your losses? $60 a share? $30?

This story should be a case study in the future over the sunk cost fallacy

They’re hoping it’s currently the left box.

 

[aguerrrroooooooooooo]

To be fair it's not been that much fun. I bought a small number at $225 on Monday, watched it shoot up to $275 and then it's been like a slow motion car crash since then. Could have been a whole lot worse if I'd believed the hype and gone in big.

I imagine it stings yeah, but as you note you've not been overly punished. It's a good lesson for next time to not get too crazy about the hype for the next big trade

Unless people are happy to pay an inflated price and hold onto the stock as a form of activism? The longer people hold the stock regardless of the price then the short sellers lose don't they? The problem is of course not everyone will hold their stock.

What's the activism though? People bought this stock to make money, plain and simple; especially those who invested thousands.

There's really no way of knowing if the short sellers have actually got out and covered themselves already. Yes they got greedy but these billionaire hedge funds didn't get to where they were by accident, they are experts and there's been an incredible amount of volatility in the market.

They might been able to utilize this volatility through calls or buying stock themselves and then manipulating the price downwards to cover themselves, we simply don't know

 

[aguerrrroooooooooooo]

They’re hoping it’s currently the left box.

I can't see it as all. Especially as we've both noted with the brokers not allowing people to buy, the amount of shares being traded over the last couple of days in comparison to the peak has been very low, I think the hype has died and I really don't see this spiking meaningfully again

I hope I'm wrong for the sake of the people who "yolo'd" any serious money into this

 

[MillsyTheMosher]

The way i see it is this ...

The reddit forum where this all started is called 'WallstreetBETS". The "BETS" bit tells you that this was never a 'safe' investment but a 'BET' that the HF's would have to buy back the stock at a huge price causing a 'short squeeze' on the basis retail traders could buy the stock in large volumes freely.

I can afford to risk 15 k, so i bought up 15 k of GME stock at 200 dollars per share on the basis that i knew it was a "BET" and if i lost it wouldn't affect me in any meaningful way. If i win, happy fucking days. I am at the point where I will either hold this stock until it hits $500 or it hits $0.

If i knew what i know now about the fact the trading apps could collude with the HF's so openly and commit market manipulation for everyone to see would i have touched GME ? Fuck no.

It's going to be interesting to see what happens. If enough people 'hold' and platforms allow people to buy freely again, this stock will be back in the $300-400 range again.

 

[aguerrrroooooooooooo]

The way i see it is this ...

The reddit forum where this all started is called 'WallstreetBETS". The "BETS" bit tells you that this was never a 'safe' investment but a 'BET' that the HF's would have to buy back the stock at a huge price causing a 'short squeeze' on the basis retail traders could buy the stock in large volumes freely.

I can afford to risk 15 k, so i bought up 15 k of GME stock at 200 dollars per share on the basis that i knew it was a "BET" and if i lost it wouldn't affect me in any meaningful way. If i win, happy fucking days. I am at the point where I will either hold this stock until it hits $500 or it hits $0.

If i knew what i know now about the fact the trading apps could collude with the HF's so openly and commit market manipulation for everyone to see would i have touched GME ? Fuck no.

It's going to be interesting to see what happens. If enough people 'hold' and platforms allow people to buy freely again, this stock will be back in the $300-400 range again.

I hope it does go back to 300 levels for your sake.
But now you know that the brokers are willing to engage in such dark arts, why keep your money in? Is this not just the sunk cost fallacy in action here?

There isn't the momentum it first had because people can't but shares in the volume they were doing last week, I will be absolutely stunned if this goes back to previous highs.

 

[bugsyblue]

I imagine it stings yeah, but as you note you've not been overly punished. It's a good lesson for next time to not get too crazy about the hype for the next big trade



What's the activism though? People bought this stock to make money, plain and simple; especially those who invested thousands.

There's really no way of knowing if the short sellers have actually got out and covered themselves already. Yes they got greedy but these billionaire hedge funds didn't get to where they were by accident, they are experts and there's been an incredible amount of volatility in the market.

They might been able to utilize this volatility through calls or buying stock themselves and then manipulating the price downwards to cover themselves, we simply don't know

Not everyone bought the stock to make money. Certainly not the movement at the beginning. The Reddit users wanted to attack certain Hedge Funds who had aggressively shorted a number of companies, GameStop being just one of them. That's how the movement started. Of course lots of people will then have jumped on bandwagon to make money off the back of it.

 

[aguerrrroooooooooooo]

Not everyone bought the stock to make money. Certainly not the movement at the beginning. The Reddit users wanted to attack certain Hedge Funds who had aggressively shorted a number of companies, GameStop being just one of them. That's how the movement started. Of course lots of people will then have jumped on bandwagon to make money off the back of it.

Like I say, if you bought one or two shares that you wouldn't really notice losing that's fair, but people are throwing away thousands of pounds/dollars now.
There's nothing noble about that and it also discounts that other hedge funds have since got in on the action and are probably profiting from people's losses now

 

[MillsyTheMosher]

Like I say, if you bought one or two shares that you wouldn't really notice losing that's fair, but people are throwing away thousands of pounds/dollars now.
There's nothing noble about that and it also discounts that other hedge funds have since got in on the action and are probably profiting from people's losses now

Fuck it. It is what it is.

Can't win them all.

People including myself knew what risk they were taking.

 

[bugsyblue]

Like I say, if you bought one or two shares that you wouldn't really notice losing that's fair, but people are throwing away thousands of pounds/dollars now.
There's nothing noble about that and it also discounts that other hedge funds have since got in on the action and are probably profiting from people's losses now

I disagree. I think there is honour in what some of them are doing. Will they win... of course not. The system is stacked against them. Will they lose a lot of money... probably. But you can't say they don't have honour.