Coronavirus (2021) thread

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GM Scoreboard:

968 - up from 937, 38.9% of North West Total which fell by by 51 to 2489. 2.0 % rise on yesterday,

3 wks v 2 wks v last wk v Today:- 1523 v 1365 v 1038 v 968 - Still falling but slowed a bit.



Pop Score is cases across whole pandemic v 100,000 people - rises daily but lower the better.

Weekly Pop is same measure across last 7 days only. Can rise or fall depending on if more cases or less occur today v the same day last week.


Either way Up is bad, down is good.



Manchester 210 – up from 194. Total 46, 932. Weekly 1497. Pop score up 38 to 8489. Weekly Pop down 1 to 271.

Salford 126 - up from 77. Total cases 20, 295. Weekly 698. Pop score up 49 to 7841. Biggest rise of the day. Weekly Pop up 10 to 270.

Bolton 125 - up from 100. Total cases 22, 287. Weekly 802. Pop score up 44 to 7751. Weekly Pop up 5 to 279.

Wigan 97 up from 86. Total cases 25, 579. Weekly 800. Pop score up 30 to 7783. Weekly Pop down 10 to 244. Big drop week to week.

Stockport 94 - down from from 102. Total cases 17, 980. Weekly 703. Pop score up 32 to 6128. Weekly Pop down 4 to 240.

Rochdale 68 - same as yesterday. Total cases 18, 624. Weekly 522. Pop score up 33 to 8374. Weekly Pop up 1 to 235.

Oldham 66 down from 108. Total cases 20, 440. Weekly 534. Pop score up 28 to 8621. Weekly Pop stays at 226.

Trafford 62 - down from 70. Total cases 14, 725. Weekly 458. Pop score up 26 to 6204. Lowest rise of the day and picks up another 6 on Stockport's overall pop score lead cutting it to just 76. Halved in a week. Weekly Pop down 7 to 193. Best weekly Pop score in GM. And first GM borough back into the 100s since December.

Tameside 60– down from 71. Total cases 15, 679. Weekly 473. Pop score up 27 to 6923. Weekly Pop down 11 to 209. Huge week and fallen 89 in Weekly Pop in past seven days.

Bury 60- down from 61. Total cases 15, 146. Weekly 396. Lowest weekly total in GM again and still falling. Very consistent low numbers here daily now. Pop score up 31 to 7931. Weekly Pop down 2 to 207.

Another reasonably good day despite the small rise in NW percentage. Downward progress is slow but most places still edging there bit by bit.
 
As an example of the bad news click bait prevelant in the media there is an article on the Mail Online (won't bother linking it) with the headline saying that Isreal is saying one shot of the vaccine is ineffective and the UK approach is flawed.

If you manage to get about halfway through the article you will see quotes from Isreal saying that as they give the second shot at three weeks and that this is roughly the time it takes for the first shot to be effective then they don't actually know if the second shot is making a huge improvement. They say they are watching the UK outcome with interest.

The Mail is shit but all the rest of the media is desperate to get anything they can spin negatively out.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
I'm not sure how you can characterise anything I wrote as sensationalist. I could have cherry picked a scenario with 5,000 deaths a day if I'd wanted to do that.
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Comedian.

Your excuse for not posting these graphs that are better was your post was a long one already, lol.

Go on then, cherry pick your graph with 5,000 deaths then, won’t that make you look clever.
 
robbieh said:
I did ask this before but no-one answered. The UK has essentially been in lockdown since mid November and prior to that a tier system. Yet the numbers have been pretty horrific.

Was the new variant the cause of this?
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The new variant is the dominant strain in new cases in the uk.
Irrespective of its transmissability, there is one aspect to the numbers that is worrying. I have seen several ppl in the know such as police, epidemiologists etc saying a big factor is ppl just ignoring the rules.
Quite how we tackle the morons, I dont know. Fines have been increased but seemingly have made little difference. I dont watch general tv, so I don't know. Is there a campaign to persuade the morons? Is the gov active on social media? Have celebs popular with the young been roped in?
 
Alright.

It's great people are digging into the real work rather than press reports of it.

As I said to start with, these scenarios not be seen as predictions. They're a flavour of what's possible, and there's huge uncertainty (look at the confidence intervals).

It gives a couple of clear messages:

1. We don't need to stay locked down forever (that positive message was why I posted it in the first place!)

2. There is the *potential* for things to go wrong, so we should be cautious.

That's it. I'm certainly not predicting doom, I'm not predicting a third wave and, as I've posted before and others have today, there are many reasons to be positive, particularly:

We've got on top of the new variant, which was never guaranteed

6 vaccines have posted great results with the different technologies.

They can be rapidly changed against new variants.

They're amazingly cheap (£5 for two AZ doses)

UK have nearly the fastest roll out in the world.

Vaccines have already been demonstrated effective against the most concerning variant.

I'm done, too much time on here today. Back in a few days.
 
Healdplace said:
GM Scoreboard:

968 - up from 937, 38.9% of North West Total which fell by by 51 to 2489. 2.0 % rise on yesterday,

3 wks v 2 wks v last wk v Today:- 1523 v 1365 v 1038 v 968 - Still falling but slowed a bit.



Pop Score is cases across whole pandemic v 100,000 people - rises daily but lower the better.

Weekly Pop is same measure across last 7 days only. Can rise or fall depending on if more cases or less occur today v the same day last week.


Either way Up is bad, down is good.



Manchester 210 – up from 194. Total 46, 932. Weekly 1497. Pop score up 38 to 8489. Weekly Pop down 1 to 271.

Salford 126 - up from 77. Total cases 20, 295. Weekly 698. Pop score up 49 to 7841. Biggest rise of the day. Weekly Pop up 10 to 270.

Bolton 125 - up from 100. Total cases 22, 287. Weekly 802. Pop score up 44 to 7751. Weekly Pop up 5 to 279.

Wigan 97 up from 86. Total cases 25, 579. Weekly 800. Pop score up 30 to 7783. Weekly Pop down 10 to 244. Big drop week to week.

Stockport 94 - down from from 102. Total cases 17, 980. Weekly 703. Pop score up 32 to 6128. Weekly Pop down 4 to 240.

Rochdale 68 - same as yesterday. Total cases 18, 624. Weekly 522. Pop score up 33 to 8374. Weekly Pop up 1 to 235.

Oldham 66 down from 108. Total cases 20, 440. Weekly 534. Pop score up 28 to 8621. Weekly Pop stays at 226.

Trafford 62 - down from 70. Total cases 14, 725. Weekly 458. Pop score up 26 to 6204. Lowest rise of the day and picks up another 6 on Stockport's overall pop score lead cutting it to just 76. Halved in a week. Weekly Pop down 7 to 193. Best weekly Pop score in GM. And first GM borough back into the 100s since December.

Tameside 60– down from 71. Total cases 15, 679. Weekly 473. Pop score up 27 to 6923. Weekly Pop down 11 to 209. Huge week and fallen 89 in Weekly Pop in past seven days.

Bury 60- down from 61. Total cases 15, 146. Weekly 396. Lowest weekly total in GM again and still falling. Very consistent low numbers here daily now. Pop score up 31 to 7931. Weekly Pop down 2 to 207.

Another reasonably good day despite the small rise in NW percentage. Downward progress is slow but most places still edging there bit by bit.
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Thanks for the breakdown I can get out if the thread now while the argument runs on & on & on.
 
Healdplace said:
Sorry I have not contributed to trying to answer your question, robbieh (had to finish something on a deadline today in my 'day job' so been distracted a bit).

You have already had plenty of good answers. And there are certainly far more qualified people on here to give them than me.

I have no expertise in this and just post the numbers and speculate like most people are doing everywhere tbh.

But we are in winter versus Spring and Summer as in the past. This is a virus that thrives in the winter just like flu does. It was known from day one we would have a bad winter wave if this was still around by then and it has in fact not gone as high or lasted as long as I think most people had feared it might.

To be on such a downward track with 6 weeks of Winter left is encouraging. And suggestive it is going this well partly because national lockdowns work better than regional ones - which I have always believed. But also as we now have this unprecedented nationwide vaccination programme on a scale unseen in the world in a nation like ours. The two together appear to be working. Better than I had hoped.

It could still turn the other way and the true impact of the vaccine is probably still to come. If that works as well as we all hope this will indeed be a good few weeks.

The real risk is over compensating and relaxing too early and letting the virus overtake us when on the last turn towards the home straight.

We could be out of this before any other major economy (though out of it is relative as we will be living with keeping Covid in control for years not weeks - so perhaps much as we were last Summer perhaps - not this winter hopefully ever again). But if we are tempted to jump too soon we may lose all the hard won advantage we are building up.
F
Like Christmas exiting this lockdown is a critical moment, We have to judge it just right. And not go mad because things look good. A pandemic can turn on a sixpence if we do.

But manage this right and if our luck holds we may be in a better place to recover than many others.

I just hope that if we are then we are generous in how we assist the poorer parts of the world getting out of this too.

We should show leadership and use our fortune to benefit others. Long term we need the world to get through this too and the world will remember who was selfish and looked after themselves and who was ready to help the less fortunate.

I see a huge Covid Aid concert coming this Summer to look forward to perhaps.
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Uk is already one of the most generous nations in supporting the WHO global effort and we have already promised to supply any surplus jabs we have.
 
Blue.Roys.Son said:
Sorry buts that just not true of the centres I've worked at, very little goes to waste.

The reason they have reserve lists is to ensure the utilise the staff and volunteers time to its maximum.
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This is true and even ones without reserve lists will proactively try and find people. For the AZ you draw out 11 shots at a time, so in theory it is possible to waste 10 at the end of a day, which they won't.
 
Corky said:
This is true and even ones without reserve lists will proactively try and find people. For the AZ you draw out 11 shots at a time, so in theory it is possible to waste 10 at the end of a day, which they won't.
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Correct

As they near the end of the day they start closing stations down until there is only 1 vial open as the final few stragglers enter the room.
 
KS55 said:
The new variant is the dominant strain in new cases in the uk.
Irrespective of its transmissability, there is one aspect to the numbers that is worrying. I have seen several ppl in the know such as police, epidemiologists etc saying a big factor is ppl just ignoring the rules.
Quite how we tackle the morons, I dont know. Fines have been increased but seemingly have made little difference. I dont watch general tv, so I don't know. Is there a campaign to persuade the morons? Is the gov active on social media? Have celebs popular with the
Click to expand...
It will only get worst in March & April . Dickheads at my works say they don’t mind staying in Jan & Feb because the weather is shit but they are not stopping in March . 2 of the lads who are of this opinion also won’t take the vaccine. 56 & 48yr olds
 
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